Geopolitics Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read

Hormuz attacks hit a wartime high, and shipping into the Gulf keeps getting more expensive

Hormuz attacks hit a wartime high as strikes move deeper into the Gulf. Ships were attacked 12 times between 28 September and 7 October, the most in any week since the US-Iran war began, according to Lloyd’s List via USNI News. Two of the latest hits were well inside the Gulf, off Qatar and the UAE, according to Reuters via gCaptain. Our view: the danger zone is now the whole Gulf, and the extra cost is not going away. Maersk still charges $1,000 per container to cross Hormuz, on top of emergency freight of up to $3,800. Quote Gulf cargo all-in, with short validity. We expect Maersk’s Hormuz fee to still be in place on 31 December.

Hormuz attacks hit a wartime high, strikes reach Qatar and the UAE, and the cost of Gulf freight keeps climbing
Ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz were attacked 12 times between 28 September and 7 October. That is the highest weekly total since the war between the US and Iran began on 28 February, Richard Meade of Lloyd’s List said in a webinar reported by USNI News. The International Maritime Organization counted nine ships struck between 1 and 6 October alone, most of them crude oil tankers.
Our view is simple. The danger is no longer confined to a narrow strait that ships can wait out and then run. It now covers the Gulf itself, including the waters off Qatar and the UAE. That changes how Gulf cargo should be priced, booked and promised. Forwarders should treat today’s surcharges as the floor for the rest of 2026, not as a temporary spike.

Where the attacks are happening now

Two of the most recent strikes were well inside the Gulf. On 7 October a tanker was hit about 51 nautical miles off Qatar, according to UKMTO (the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency, which logs incidents at sea). Maritime security sources told Reuters, via gCaptain, that it was the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged chemical tanker Acers, hit by multiple projectiles, and that its crew suffered minor injuries. Al Jazeera put the location 94 kilometres north of Madinat ash Shamal, inside Qatar’s exclusive economic zone.
On 9 October the Panama-flagged supertanker GEM NO.2, fully loaded and at anchor, was hit by an unknown projectile about 13 nautical miles off the UAE coast, according to UKMTO. The fire was put out. Maritime security sources told Reuters the strike was outside the Hormuz area, which points to a wider risk for ships. No one has claimed it.
The tempo is the other story. By 6 October, UKMTO had logged nine attacks on tankers in the strait that month, already half of September’s total for the strait and the Gulf combined, according to Al Jazeera. By 10 October, UKMTO said 11 commercial vessels had been attacked in and around the strait since the start of October, according to AzerNews. Both sides are firing. USNI News reports that Iran and the US have each attacked ships, with the US striking vessels it says broke its naval blockade of Iran, which resumed on 14 July, according to gCaptain.
Iran’s message is blunt. It has told regional states that it will treat attempts to open new oil export routes as hostile. “Iran has absolutely no intention of allowing control of the Strait of Hormuz to slip from its hands,” a senior diplomat in the region briefed by Tehran told Reuters.

Fewer ships are willing to go

Shipowners are reacting the way you would expect. “The recent spate of Iranian attacks seems to have dampened the appetite of shipowners to sail through the Strait,” Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO, told Reuters.
The traffic data backs him up, with one twist. Only seven commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday 6 October, the lowest since 23 July, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. Before the war, about 125 large commercial vessels crossed each day. Crude moving through the strait fell 27% in a week to at least 10.1 million barrels a day. Kpler analysts wrote: “That is back to its September average, but 74% of its pre-war level.”
The twist is that weekly totals are holding up. Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted 143 transits between 28 September and 7 October, up three on the week before, according to USNI News. But tanker and gas carrier transits fell 10.2% over the same period. Meade said Middle East crude exports are getting close to pre-war levels mainly through a shuttle system of ship-to-ship transfers in the Arabian Sea, and he said he does not see that as sustainable.
Read together, the numbers say the strait is open, but on a day-to-day, ship-by-ship basis. A daily count can drop to single digits after a bad stretch of attacks. That is not a lane a forwarder can plan around with confidence.

What it costs to ship a box into the Gulf

The cost now sits in several layers, and they stack.
First, the Hormuz fee. Maersk’s Middle East Operational Update 51, updated 8 October, says: “Shipments on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz will incur an additional fee of USD 1,000 per container.” For Middle East imports, Maersk bills it to the local consignee as basic ocean freight.
Second, emergency freight. On top of the transit fee, Maersk charges $1,800 for a 20-foot dry container, $3,000 for a 40-foot dry and $3,800 for reefer (refrigerated), special and DG (dangerous goods) cargo moving on to the upper Gulf.
Third, other carriers are adding their own charges. MSC brought in a Regional Cost Recovery surcharge on bookings from Europe to the UAE and Upper Gulf from 1 October: $1,000 per dry container and $2,000 per reefer, according to its 28 September advisory.
Behind all of this is insurance. War-risk cover, the extra policy shipowners buy to sail into a declared war zone, cost about 0.25% of a ship’s hull value before the war. By late August, market estimates put it at 3% to 8% for a Hormuz transit, according to Insurance Business. For a $150 million tanker, a 10% premium means a $15 million bill for one trip, the same report said. Neil Roberts of the Lloyd’s Market Association said cover is still available, at a price: “That price reflects the risk.”
Booking access is also tight. Maersk has suspended reefer bookings to and from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia’s Dammam, Al Jubail and King Abdullah ports, and most of the UAE. DG bookings are suspended for Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Oman, with conditional exceptions at a few ports. Dry cargo is suspended for the UAE except Khor Fakkan and Jebel Ali, as well as Iraq, Dammam and Jubail.

What happened last time things calmed down

This war has already had one false dawn. A ceasefire was signed in June. Renewed fighting in the strait on 27 June undermined it, according to Insurance Business. At the time, Rishi Thapar of broker Lockton said “the market will adjust gradually rather than sharply” when it came to premiums. The US blockade of Iran resumed on 14 July.
September looked like a recovery. Lloyd’s List data showed 477 non-Iranian-linked transits through Hormuz that month, the highest since the conflict began, according to USNI News. Even then, Bridget Diakun of Lloyd’s List Intelligence questioned whether that growth would last. Ten days into October, tanker traffic is falling again.
The lesson for forwarders: war-risk premiums jumped within weeks of the war starting and were still many times their pre-war level in late August, two months after the ceasefire. Insurers price the risk of the next attack, not the quiet of the last week. Carriers price their insurance, their detours and their idle ships. None of that eases quickly.

What forwarders and shippers should do now

The practical problems are already on the ground in the UAE. Khor Fakkan, the UAE’s east-coast terminal outside the strait, is congested. “To ease congestion, the terminal is relocating containers to ICD Sajja, which may affect collection arrangements,” Maersk says. An ICD is an inland container depot. Some cargo booked to Khor Fakkan is being sent on to Jebel Ali instead.
That has knock-on costs. Maersk’s emergency freight covers 14 days of storage for cargo held in transit. After that, storage runs at $25 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) per day. Returning empties in the Gulf is not free either. Maersk charges $1,000 to drop a 20-foot empty at Jebel Ali and $1,200 for a 40-foot. At Ajman, a 20-foot drop costs $2,055.
The fine print matters most. Maersk says it “reserves the right to declare abandonment of carriage,” meaning it can end the voyage early, and in that case no waivers or refunds apply to charges already billed or paid.
Here is how we would handle it:

Quote Gulf cargo all-in, with surcharge pass-through clauses and short validity, a week or two rather than a month.

Get written instructions from shippers on what to do if cargo is re-routed, held or returned to origin, before it sails.

Check every carrier’s abandonment and change-of-destination terms, and tell customers who pays if they apply.

Budget for storage beyond 14 days and for empty-return charges, which can add $1,000 or more per box.

Expect slower collections in the UAE, and set delivery promises to match.

Inland costs are moving too. US diesel has risen about 70% to $6.28 a gallon, according to Reuters figures cited by gCaptain, which feeds directly into trucking fuel surcharges. Washington’s new license for Russian diesel may ease that later, but Trump did not say how much of it would reach the US.

Our call

US President Donald Trump is reported to be weighing whether to escalate strikes on Iran before or after the November midterm elections, according to Reuters. Either way, the risk does not end in the next few weeks.
Our prediction: Maersk’s $1,000-per-container Hormuz fee will still be in place on 31 December 2026, and at least one more major container line will introduce or raise a Gulf-specific surcharge within six weeks. We also expect UKMTO’s October attack count to pass September’s total by the end of the month. Forwarders who price Gulf cargo as if relief is coming before year-end will be eating the difference.

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