Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read
Gemini says nearly all its ships go back through Suez in Q1 2027. Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO, Rolf Habben Jansen, expects “more or less all” Gemini services (the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd alliance) back through Suez during Q1 2027, The Loadstar reported on 19 October. A new China-West Med loop sails from Shanghai on 22 November. Our view: this is the clearest date any top carrier has given, and it is bad news for Asia-Europe rates. Xeneta says Red Sea capacity has doubled since late August, but is still only 48% of the August 2023 level. Forwarders should check routing-linked contract terms now. Our call: Xeneta’s Far East-North Europe average falls below $3,000 per 40ft by end of March 2027.
Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
Asia-Europe carriers want up to $4,800 a box from today. Expect them to get part of it. Carriers are asking $4,500 to $4,800 per 40ft container on Asia-Europe from 19 October, Drewry reports. Shanghai-Rotterdam spot was $3,522 on 15 October. Our view: this is an opening bid, not a new price. Asia-Europe blank sailings fall from six to two next week, Drewry counts, and Drewry itself calls success uncertain. Mid-July FAKs of $7,900 to $8,500 did not hold either. Quote late-October cargo with a short validity. Our call: Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate stays below $4,000 in its 29 October assessment.
Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read
Champi’s track runs close to Taiwan. Plan for it now. Typhoon Champi hit 140 knots on Monday, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said, per HNGN. It forecasts the storm passing about 94 nautical miles from Taipei early Saturday and reaching Fujian by 24 October. Taiwan’s weather agency expects an earlier turn north but still warns of heavy rain, Focus Taiwan reported. Our view: treat Taiwan port and airport disruption as likely. Krathon in 2024 halted bunkering at most major Taiwanese ports for four days. Our call: at least one major Taiwan container port pauses operations for 24 hours or more between 23 and 25 October.
Geopolitics Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read
US plan to clean up dark tankers won’t lower your fuel bill. On Monday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said investors can buy idle sanctioned “dark fleet” tankers, refurbish them and carry legal oil. Wright puts the dark fleet at about 1,600 ships. We think the plan won’t change freight costs. Kpler says only about 24 of roughly 160 US-sanctioned supertankers could return to mainstream trade. It also says war risk, not a lack of ships, is driving Gulf freight. Our advice: don’t tell customers that bunker or emergency fuel surcharges will ease. Our call: no major container line cuts its emergency fuel surcharge because of this plan before the end of November.
Trucking & Rail Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
Werner’s warning: $6 diesel is now hitting the big truckers. Werner Enterprises now expects third-quarter adjusted earnings of 15 to 16 cents a share. Analysts expected 36 cents, FreightWaves reports. Werner blamed 18 cents of extra costs: diesel, hiring and keeping drivers, and insurance reserves. US diesel averaged $6.179 a gallon in the week of 12 October, says the EIA. That is $2.514 higher than a year ago. Our view: truck capacity will not loosen even as freight volumes ease. Forwarders should price US drayage and inland trucking tight. Our call: national tender rejections stay above 10% through 31 December.
Trucking & Rail Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
C.H. Robinson’s $604m verdict stands, and the bill is now over $700m. A Dallas County judge has upheld July’s $604,025,000 jury verdict against C.H. Robinson over a 2021 crash that killed three people, FreightWaves reports. About $107m of interest takes the total past $700m. Our view: the real damage is the jury’s finding that the driver was under the broker’s control. The company says it “does not employ drivers” and said in July it would appeal. Its insurance covers $155m per occurrence, its filing shows. Anyone who books trucks should expect tougher carrier checks and contract terms. Our call: C.H. Robinson will not settle before an appeals court rules.
Companies & Markets Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read
DHL’s forwarding profit jumped a third. DSV and K+N report next. DHL Group expects 2026 EBIT (operating profit) above EUR 7.0bn, up from above EUR 6.5bn. In its preliminary figures on 16 October, Global Forwarding earned about EUR 260m in Q3, against EUR 195m a year earlier. That is up 33%. Our view: tight air capacity is what’s making forwarders money right now. DHL says capacity limits in air freight added about EUR 100m to its Express profit. DSV reports on 21 October and Kuehne+Nagel on 22 October. Our call: both will show air profit up year on year, and neither will cut its full-year range.
Trade & Customs Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
Trump signs 100% Russia-oil tariffs and waives them in the same order. On 16 October, Trump signed an order adding 500% to duties on Russian goods and 100% on goods from the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas (White House). Section 4 of the same order waives them all, with no end date. Our view: this is a threat put on hold, not a repeal. The order names no countries. Reporting points to China and India (RFE/RL). Our prediction: no Graham Act duty is charged on Indian or Chinese cargo before 31 December. But a breakdown in Ukraine talks would bring the threat back.
Air Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
Air volumes fell three weeks running. Spot rates did not move. Global air cargo spot rates held at $3.55/kg in week 41 (5–11 October), WorldACD data show, even as tonnage fell 1% for a third straight week. Our view: this rate floor is held up by costs, not demand. Jet fuel is up 111% year on year, and Gulf capacity is still 20% below late February, per WorldACD. Spot rates are 34% higher than a year ago. For forwarders, the fuel surcharge will move Q4 quotes more than the base rate. Our call: global spot ends October at or above $3.55/kg, with no post-holiday dip.
Trade & Customs Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
IEEPA refunds pay in about 60 days. The next Phase 3 date is a guess. CBP is largely paying CAPE Phase 1 refunds within 60 days of a request, Foley & Lardner said on 19 October. Our view: quote clients 60 days, not a Phase 3 date. Phase 3, for older liquidated entries, opened on 6 October only to litigants who gave CBP an importer number by 30 July. Foley reads CBP’s “biweekly cadence” as a possible next group on 20 October. That is a law firm’s inference, not a CBP announcement. Our call: CBP publishes instructions for the late filers before the end of November. Not legal advice.
Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 6 min read
Ship on fire in the Atlantic: plan for a general average bill. The crew of the Espirito Santos Express abandoned ship after an explosion and fire in the Atlantic. The 2018-built boxship was sailing from Singapore to Santos, Brazil, with Hapag-Lloyd, ONE and MSC cargo aboard, Seatrade Maritime reports. All crew are safe. We think shippers on this ship should plan for a general average bill. In the last comparable case, the Yantian Express fire, the demands on uninsured cargo came to more than 60% of its value. Forwarders should check cover with every customer now. Our call: general average is declared within three weeks, and the cargo reaches Brazil months late.
Tech & AI Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
Daimler says the driver leaves its first Torc truck by end-2026. Daimler Truck CFO Eva Scherer said the company expects to take the driver out on its first route by the end of this year, then scale toward 2028, FreightWaves reported on 17 October. The truck is sold or financed as usual. The Torc “virtual driver” is billed per mile as software. Our view: the per-mile price matters more than the date. One route is not capacity. A per-mile fee is a number that will end up in linehaul quotes. Our call: no public per-mile price from Daimler or Torc before mid-2027, and no driverless effect on Texas spot rates in 2027.
Tech & AI Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
$9M for an AI that checks freight bills says where the money is. Evos, a start-up building AI “operators” for freight brokers and other industrial firms, has raised $9 million, FreightWaves reports. Our view: AI in freight is earning its keep first in dull money work, such as checking invoices. At broker MyFreightWorld, Evos says its software made nearly 3,500 invoice-audit decisions in two months and flagged more than $600,000 in billing gaps in five weeks. Those are Evos figures, and flagged is not recovered. Forwarders should audit their own unbilled charges first. Our call: by end of March 2027, buyers will ask for recovered dollars, not flagged ones.
Trade & Customs Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read
India–NZ trade deal goes live: Indian clothing to New Zealand loses its duty of up to 10%. From Tuesday 20 October, New Zealand will charge zero duty on 100% of its tariff lines for Indian goods. Clothing, leather and footwear currently pay up to 10%. In our view the early volume will come in Indian apparel and footwear, not in New Zealand food going to India. India has opened about 70% of its tariff lines and keeps dairy out. It also needs origin proof under its CAROTAR rules and DGFT quota licences. Our call: by end of March 2027, NZ import data will show Indian apparel and footwear up by double digits year on year.
Geopolitics Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read
Hormuz mines are a claim. The attack count is not. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says two supertankers hit mines in Hormuz on 16 and 17 October. Neither ship has been named. The UK’s maritime security office (UKMTO) says at least 10 vessels were attacked in one week, the most of the war. In our view, the confirmed count matters more than the claims. The risk now covers the whole Gulf: two tankers were hit off Saudi Arabia’s Al Jubail, and a tug was hit off the UAE. Iran says it would reopen the strait “on the sixth day” if its terms are met. Our call: Gulf emergency surcharges stay in place through November.
Trade & Customs Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read
Trump shelves 100% secondary tariffs and Russia tanker sanctions before day one. On Friday 16 October, President Trump waived the Russia sections of the Graham Act. They were due to start today, 18 October. They included tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian energy (ABC News). In our view, Washington has put fuel prices ahead of pressure on Moscow. Diesel averaged $6.31 a gallon on Thursday (Business Today). For forwarders, Chinese and Indian cargo avoids a tariff shock. But the threat can come back at any time. Our call: the waiver holds through year-end. Fuel surcharges will not ease before then.
Companies & Markets Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
DHL lifts its forecast to over EUR 7bn. Air freight is doing the work. On 16 October DHL Group raised its 2026 operating profit (EBIT) forecast to above EUR 7.0bn, from more than EUR 6.5bn. In our view, this is mostly an air freight story. Express EBIT rose to about EUR 1,035m from EUR 692m. DHL says about EUR 100m of that came from tight air capacity. Global Forwarding made about EUR 260m, up from EUR 195m. Expect firm air rates through peak season. Our call: DSV (21 October) and Kuehne+Nagel (22 October) will show air earnings growing faster than sea earnings, and neither will cut guidance.
Geopolitics Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read
Egypt weighs troops for Saudi Arabia as Suez traffic returns. Egypt’s parliament resumes debate on Monday on sending troops to defend Saudi Arabia against the Houthis. The Houthis have blockaded the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-flagged tankers, AFP reported. Our view: the Suez comeback is more fragile than carriers admit. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd now run Asia–Europe services through the canal, with one more due to start on 27 October. Maersk made 67 canal transits in September, against eight a year earlier. Our call: Egypt approves this week, Gemini keeps sailing through November, and late returners such as Yang Ming wait until 2027.
Ocean Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Asia-Europe rates rise for the first time in 14 weeks. We don’t think the hikes will hold. Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate rose 6% to $3,522 per 40ft container on 15 October. That ended 13 straight weeks of decline. From 19 October, carriers want more: Hapag-Lloyd’s North Europe FAK (freight all kinds, the standard list rate) is $4,200, and MSC’s is $4,500. Our view is that the hikes won’t stick. Drewry itself says Suez transits are adding capacity and that making the FAKs stick is “uncertain amid increased capacity”. Our advice: treat any quote above $4,000 as something to negotiate. Our prediction: Shanghai-Rotterdam is back below $3,522 by end of November.
Geopolitics Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Romania shoots down two drones off Sulina. Price Danube cargo as war-zone cargo. On Saturday Romanian F-16s shot down two attack drones 11 and 13 nautical miles off Sulina, the sea entrance to the Danube. Earlier in the week, two tankers were hit off Romania. We think the Danube route, Ukraine’s back door to the sea, has stopped being a safe alternative. The Maritime Executive counts 23 seafarers killed or missing off Romania and Bulgaria in two weeks. Expect higher war-risk insurance and fewer owners willing to call. Our call: by end of November, underwriters will charge extra for Romanian anchorages, and Danube freight rates will rise with them.
Trucking & Rail Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Judge upholds $604m verdict against C.H. Robinson; with interest it tops $700m. On Friday a Dallas County judge upheld a jury’s USD 604m verdict against C.H. Robinson over a 2021 crash that killed three people, FreightWaves reports. About USD 107m of pre-judgment interest takes the total past USD 700m. Our view: this is the bill for the Supreme Court’s May ruling that brokers can be sued for picking unsafe carriers. CHR says it “does not employ drivers”; the jury found the driver was working under its control. Anyone who books trucks for clients carries a version of this risk. Our call: no settlement before year-end. CHR will push the appeal on its 28 October earnings call.
Trade & Customs Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read
The Mexico tariff deal has stalled. Plan on 25% and 50% through year-end. On 15 October the Wall Street Journal reported that a US–Mexico deal to cut the 25% tariff on Mexican cars and the 50% tariff on steel and aluminium had stalled. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly objects to big cuts. Both governments deny the talks have stalled. Our view: don’t price northbound freight on the hope of relief. The USMCA review is already on a year-by-year footing. Since 14 October, how you prove US content decides what your clients pay. Our prediction: no signed tariff-cut deal before 31 December 2026.
Trucking & Rail Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Maersk lifts its US inland fuel surcharge 54% to $215 from 1 November. Maersk will raise its US inland fuel surcharge from $140 to $215 per container on 1 November, Container News reports. It applies when Maersk trucks the box to or from your door under its own bill of lading. In our view, this is a lagging bill: weekly diesel has fallen three weeks in a row, to $6.18 a gallon (EIA, via Overdrive), but the 13-week average Maersk uses still rose. Carrier-haulage door moves will cost more in November even as pump prices ease. Our call: $215 will still be in force on 31 December.
Trade & Customs Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Tariff refund class action opens a door for small importers. Don’t wait at it. About $30 billion in struck-down IEEPA tariffs could stay with the US government unless a new class action works, the trade court estimates (Supply Chain Dive). The court certified the class on 8 October. Scheduling filings are due Thursday, 22 October. Our view: this is a backstop, not a payout. No refund has been ordered yet. The government may appeal (Steptoe). Brazil and India duties are excluded (Davis Wright Tremaine). Brokers should flag every client who never used CAPE, the customs refund portal. We expect no class-wide refund money before the end of Q1 2027.
Ocean Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read
COSCO’s US inspection perk is under review, three weeks before port fees can return. Eleven COSCO ships sit on a Coast Guard table for Qualship 21, the scheme that gives well-run foreign ships fewer routine safety inspections. Three House chairmen want them removed. On 15 October the Coast Guard Commandant ordered an immediate review, gCaptain reports. We think the perk goes. Washington is building a security case against COSCO, and dropping a reward is the cheapest move it has. Section 301 port fees on Chinese-operated ships are also set to restart on 10 November. Expect more Coast Guard boardings of COSCO ships. Our call: COSCO’s ships are out of Qualship 21 by mid-December.
Tech & AI Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Evos gets $9m to automate broker back offices. The proof so far is thin. New York startup Evos has raised $9 million in pre-seed funding for AI “operators” that do back-office work such as invoice audit, FreightWaves reports. Our view: the money follows labour budgets, not software budgets, and the claims still need checking. Evos says one operator made nearly 3,500 audit decisions in two months at 97% accuracy for broker MyFreightWorld. FreightWaves notes Evos did not explain how accuracy was measured. For forwarders, audit and status chasing are the first jobs at risk. Our call: by end of Q1 2027, buyers will demand audited, dollars-recovered numbers before they sign.
Tech & AI Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Daimler Truck says its first driverless route starts within about 10 weeks. Daimler Truck expects to take the driver out of the truck on its first route by the end of 2026, with commercial scale around 2028, FreightWaves reported on 17 October. In our view the date matters less than the price model: the virtual driver will be billed per mile, as software. Aurora reported nearly 440,000 driverless miles through June. Kodiak had 35 trucks with no one in the cab. For forwarders, that points to autonomous capacity on Texas lanes, priced per mile. Our call: Daimler’s first driverless run happens no later than 31 March 2027.
Geopolitics Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
A box ship sank in Hormuz. Gulf feeder cargo just got riskier. UKMTO, the Royal Navy’s shipping reporting centre, recorded 23 attacks on ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz since 1 October, “almost double the average” (CBS). One was the container ship GFS Pride, which sank after a strike on 13 October (Bloomberg). Our view: the danger has reached the small feeder ships that carry boxes into the inner Gulf. Before the war, war-risk insurance cost about 0.25% of a ship’s value. Brokers now quote 6% to 10% for tankers (Insurance Business). Our call: at least one major carrier adds or raises a Gulf surcharge by end of November.
Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min read
Asia-Europe rates rise for the first time in 14 weeks. Monday’s FAKs will not hold in full. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October. Shanghai-Genoa rose 7% to $3,945 and Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522, the first Asia-Europe gain after 13 weeks of falls. On Monday 19 October, carriers want $4,500 to $4,800 under their FAK tariffs. A FAK (freight all kinds) is a carrier’s standard spot rate for general cargo. In our view the bounce is real, but the FAKs will not hold. Drewry calls them uncertain, because ships returning to Suez are adding capacity. Our call: neither lane reaches $4,500 by Drewry’s 29 October index.
Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
Red Sea capacity has doubled in six weeks. The risk hasn’t gone down. Weekly container capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb reached 448,273 TEU (twenty-foot containers) on 5 October, Xeneta says. That is double late August, but only 48% of August 2023. Our view: the return is real, but the war around it is getting worse. Since Thursday the Houthis have hit Aden’s presidential palace and its airport. On Friday a missile aimed at the Saudi oil port of Yanbu was shot down. Panama is easing too, to 33 daily transits. Confirm the routing on every Asia–Europe booking. Our call: Bab el-Mandeb capacity tops 550,000 TEU a week by end of November, unless a container ship is hit.
Companies & Markets Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
DHL lifts its 2026 profit target to more than EUR 7bn, and tight air capacity did part of the work. DHL Group now expects 2026 operating profit (EBIT) above EUR 7.0bn, up from above EUR 6.5bn. Its Q3 EBIT was about EUR 1,710m, up roughly 16%. We think this shows air freight is where forwarder profit is coming from this year. DHL Global Forwarding’s EBIT rose to about EUR 260m from EUR 195m. DHL Express says about EUR 100m came from tight air freight capacity. For forwarders, peak season air space will cost more and need booking earlier. Our call: when DSV reports on 21 October and Kuehne+Nagel on 22 October, both will show air outgrowing sea.
Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
Trudy shuts Manzanillo for the third time in four weeks. Manzanillo, which handled 2.07 million TEU (twenty-foot containers) in the first half of 2026, closed to ships over 500 gross tonnage at 21:00 on 16 October as Hurricane Trudy approached, Gomsa reports. Maersk expects to restart at 07:00 on Monday 19 October. In our view the restart time matters less than the queue. This is the port’s third storm stoppage since late September, after Polo and Simon. Hutchison’s TIMSA terminal has moved Saturday’s appointments to Monday. Our call: gate and yard delays at Manzanillo will run until at least Friday 23 October, and vessel schedules will not recover before November.
Trucking & Rail Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min read
A judge kept C.H. Robinson’s $604m verdict. With interest, it is over $700m. On 16 October a Dallas County judge upheld the full $604,025,000 jury verdict against C.H. Robinson over a 2021 crash that killed three people, FreightWaves reported. TD Cowen estimates about $107m of interest on top. Our view: the carrier’s “Satisfactory” safety rating is no longer a shield for a broker. Since May, a Supreme Court ruling has let state negligent-hiring claims against brokers go ahead. Any forwarder that books US trucks now carries this risk. Our call: C.H. Robinson appeals, and does not settle before mid-2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
Russia tariff threat paused, but diesel relief stays thin. On Friday President Trump waived the Graham Act’s Russia measures, including tariffs of up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas, two days before they were due to start (ABC News). Our view: this pauses a big tariff risk on India and China lanes. It does not remove it. The waiver lasts only until the White House decides otherwise. A plan to free sanctioned tankers will barely touch diesel either. Kpler expects “virtually no impact on the current tanker crisis” (Reuters). Our call: US diesel stays above $6 a gallon through the 3 November midterms.
Geopolitics Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
Black Sea drones now hit ships inside NATO waters. At least seven cargo ships were hit by drones off Romania and Bulgaria this month, with two dead and at least 25 missing, AP reports. On 17 October Romanian F-16s shot down two more drones over Romanian waters (Reuters). Our view: the coastal strip that insurers treated as safe is no longer safe. In September, London’s Joint War Committee left Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters out of its high-risk zone. AP says one of this week’s fires was inside Romania’s territorial waters. We expect extra war-risk premiums on Constanța and Danube calls within six weeks.
Trucking & Rail Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min read
J.B. Hunt’s 20% revenue jump is half diesel. The driver bill is the story. J.B. Hunt grew Q3 revenue 20% to $3.68bn. Fuel surcharges explain close to half the rise: $670.8m, up from $385.6m. Excluding fuel, intermodal revenue per load rose just 2%. In our view, cost is the number to watch. Extra costs topped $50m, driven by diesel, driver hiring and cargo claims. The CEO says driver pressure “typically yields a much better pricing environment for the next bid season”, the yearly contract tender. Our call: US domestic contract rates rise mid-single digits in bids closing by end of Q1 2027.
Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min read
Maersk lifts its inland fuel charge to $350 a box on US and Canada imports. From 16 November, Maersk will charge $350 per dry container and $400 per reefer on imports moving by rail ramp or inland yard in the US or Canada. In June it listed $200 and $250. Exports rise to $125 and $175. Maersk cites “recent increases in diesel fuel prices.” In our view this is a charge to price into Q1 quotes now, not a blip. The same week, a system change will delay Maersk invoices in Canada from 13 to 15 November. Our call: the import level stays at $350 or higher until at least end of January 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
Mexico wants a 15% ceiling on US car tariffs. Nothing is signed. On 16 October, Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard told lawmakers Mexico wants no carmaker paying more than 15% in US tariffs, the rate South Korea gets (Expansión). Today it is 25% on cars and 50% on steel (Rio Times). Our view: plan around today’s rates. Ebrard expects relief within weeks or months, but there is no deal, no US order and no steel rate. The next round of trade-pact talks has no date. Our call: no signed US cut to Mexico’s car or steel tariffs before 31 December 2026.
Tech & AI Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min read
AI is coming for invoice audits and “where’s my freight” calls. Evos raised $9 million in pre-seed money this week, FreightWaves reports. Its showcase: auditing carrier invoices for a broker. Separately, Carrier Logistics and LSP44 put live a tool that finds less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments when the tracking number is wrong. Our view: the boring paperwork is where AI will pay first. BCG found only 13% of 30 big logistics firms see measurable financial results from AI. Evos’s 97% accuracy and $600,000 flagged are its own, unaudited claims. Our call: by end of Q1 2027, at least two more LTL carriers or vendors will announce similar lookup tools.
Ocean Oct 16, 2026 · 8 min read
A Gulf feeder sank with boxes aboard. Check whose ship your cargo is on. The 2,824-TEU feeder GFS Pride was hit off Oman in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October and sank. All 21 crew got off safely. In our view the war has now reached the small ships that carry Gulf containers. Mainline carriers stopped sending their own ships through the strait. That does not mean your cargo stays out of it. Analyst Lars Jensen says Maersk, ONE, PIL and OOCL showed active schedules on some of the ships that were hit. Our call: no mainline service goes back through Hormuz before 31 December.
Ocean Oct 16, 2026 · 8 min read
Asia-Europe rates rise for the first time in 13 weeks. The 19 October hikes still look too big to stick. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October. Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522. That ended 13 straight weeks of decline on Asia-Europe. Our view is that this is a bounce, not a turn. Carriers want FAK (freight-all-kinds) rates of $4,500–$4,800 from 19 October. That is roughly $1,000 to $1,300 above today’s Rotterdam level. A forwarder told The Loadstar demand is “a bit flat”, and MSC and CMA CGM have set the new rates to expire on 31 October. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays below $4,000 on Drewry’s index through October.
Ocean Oct 16, 2026 · 8 min read
Suez is back past halfway. Book for it, but keep a Cape plan. Container capacity through the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU a week in early October, BIMCO says, citing Clarksons. That is more than half the 1,457,000 TEU of the same weeks in 2023, and the first time since the Houthi attacks began. Our view: the return is now real and hard to stop. BIMCO estimates Cape routing added about 10% to ship demand, and “That increase is now reducing quickly.” Expect cheaper Asia–Europe 2027 contracts and early, bunched arrivals. Our call: ONE or HMM announces a Suez routing within six weeks, unless a ship is hit.
Air Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
DHL bets on a strong air peak, and it is putting its own money behind that bet. DHL Group now expects 2026 EBIT (operating profit) above €7.0bn, up from above €6.5bn. Third-quarter EBIT rose about 16% to roughly €1,710m. Express EBIT was about €1,035m, against €692m a year ago. DHL cites “indications of a robust seasonal peak in Q4.” In our view this is the clearest signal yet that air space will stay tight and pricey into December. DHL also lifted capex to about €3.6bn. Our call: global air rates on the TAC index stay at least 15% above last year until mid-December. Book peak space now.
Trade & Customs Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
Trump signs a 500% Russia tariff and a 100% buyer tariff, then waives both. On 16 October the White House published an order raising duty on Russian goods by 500% and on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas by 100%. Section 4 of the same order waives those duties. Our view: nothing changes at the border today, but the switch now exists. The waiver stays until the President or Secretary of State decides otherwise. The order names no CBP process and no effective date. Forwarders with India or China lanes should know that. Our call: no Graham Act duty is collected at a US port before 31 December 2026.
Trucking & Rail Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
J.B. Hunt’s driver costs are your 2027 inland rate. J.B. Hunt moved 8% more intermodal loads in Q3, but costs cut operating income by over $50 million versus Q2. Our view: that bill gets passed on in 2027. CFO Brad Delco said costs “impacted operating income by over $50 million versus the second quarter of this year.” CEO Shelley Simpson said driver pressure “typically yields a much better pricing environment for the next” bid cycle. This year it won only low-single-digit intermodal contract rises. Forwarders quoting US door moves for 2027 should build in more. Our call: 2027 intermodal contract increases land in mid-single digits, set by end of Q1.
Trade & Customs Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
The US wants $200,000 a voyage from Spanish ships. Watch the olive oil. On 14 October the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) proposed a $200,000 fee every time a Spanish-flagged ship enters a US port. The reason: Spain refused port access to US-flagged Maersk ships in November 2024. Our view: the ship fee is a signal, because few Spanish-flagged vessels call at US ports. The real lever is a proposed limit on about $3.1 billion a year of Spanish goods, including $836.9 million of olive oil. Comments close on 14 December. We expect Spain to request a hearing before that date and no final rule before end of March 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
CBP gives postal filers 90 more days. The bigger change is the rule behind it. US Customs (CBP) has pushed mandatory Entry Type 13, its new electronic customs entry for international mail, from 22 October 2026 to 20 January 2027, BDO reports. We think the delay matters less than the proposal published on 8 October. It would make courier informal entries (Entry Type 11, goods worth $2,500 or less) due on or before arrival, not within 15 days. In CBP’s own sample, only 0.4% were filed before arrival. Our call: comments close 7 December, and express brokers will push hard for a phase-in. We expect any final rule no earlier than mid-2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 16, 2026 · 8 min read
Commerce has defined “U.S. content”. The 15% floor still sets the bill. From 14 October, Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum goods have a federal definition of “U.S. content”. The 25% Section 232 duty applies only to the part that isn’t U.S. content. In our view, the paperwork gets heavier but the savings don’t grow. For steel derivatives, CBP caps the U.S. content you can report at 40% of value, and 25% on the other 60% comes to 15%. That is exactly the legal floor. Brokers will need melt-and-pour and smelt-and-cast records from suppliers. Our call: CBP will issue new filing guidance that uses this definition before the end of Q4.
Tech & AI Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
ASIC walks away from WiseTech. Watch the CargoWise AI bill next. WiseTech shares rose 5.2% to A$35.28 on Thursday after ASIC, Australia’s corporate regulator, issued no-action letters to founder Richard White, two employees and the company, according to Investing.com. A no-action letter means no enforcement on that matter. Our view: for forwarders, the real story is now price, not governance. Citi expects WiseTech to charge for CargoWise AI agents separately from its Value Pack bundle, The Loadstar reported, with more than $30m of second-half revenue riding on agents and VerifyWise. Our call: WiseTech names a separate price for at least one AI agent by end of February 2027.
Geopolitics Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
A 2,824 TEU feeder has sunk near Hormuz, and Gulf box cargo now carries war risk. The Singapore-flagged feeder GFS Pride (2,824 TEU) sank after a strike near the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October. Its 21 crew got off safely (Singapore MPA, via The Loadstar). Its sister ship GFS Giselle was holed. In our view the war has now reached the feeder ships that link Gulf ports to India and Pakistan. The IMO counts 113 incidents and 24 seafarers killed since February (Splash247). Expect surcharges and fewer feeder sailings. Our call: at least one major carrier will add or raise a Gulf war-risk surcharge before 3 November.
Geopolitics Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
Two tankers burn off Sulina, and the Danube’s safe lane no longer looks safe. Two empty chemical tankers caught fire off Romania’s Sulina canal overnight on 14–15 October. Seven of Wine Trader’s 12 crew are missing (Reuters via gCaptain). The other, Yara J, burned inside Romanian waters. We think that matters most. Insurers left Romania’s 12-mile coastal band out of the Black Sea war-risk zone in September, and about 90% of transit ships hug it to avoid the extra premium (UkrAgroConsult). That shelter just failed. Expect higher costs on Danube cargo. Our call: by mid-November, war-risk quotes for Sulina calls reach at least 1% of hull value.
Trade & Customs Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
The $200,000 ship fee is a warning shot. The olive oil and tile list is the real threat. The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has proposed a $200,000 fee every time a Spanish-flagged ship enters a US port. It has also proposed limits on five Spanish import categories worth about $3.1bn in 2025. This follows Spain turning away US-flagged Maersk ships in November 2024. Few Spanish-flagged ships call at US ports, the FMC says, so the fee alone will not hurt much in our view. The cargo list would: olive oil at $836.9m, ceramic tiles at $523.7m, perfume, stone and confectionery. Comments close 14 December. Our call is that importers will pull Spanish orders forward through November and December.
Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Asia-Europe spot rates rise for the first time since July, just as tenders start. Drewry’s World Container Index shows Shanghai–Rotterdam up 6% this week to $3,522 per 40ft container. Shanghai–Genoa rose 7% to $3,945. This follows 13 straight weekly falls, as counted by The Loadstar. Our view: this is carriers setting the opening price for 2027 contract talks, not demand coming back. MSC’s new rate for 19 October is $4,500, still about $1,000 above the index. Forwarders should not take this week as a floor in tenders. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays below $4,000 in every weekly Drewry print through end of November.
Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
Suez is half back. Don’t price it as fully back. Container capacity through the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU (twenty-foot containers) a week in early October. That is over 50% of 2023 levels for the first time, says BIMCO. Our view: the return is real, but it is happening beside a hot Saudi–Houthi war. Linerlytica expects a full return by Q1 2027. Freightos calls the Houthi escalation “uncertainty rather than a confirmed capacity shock”. Asia–Med spot rose 7% to $3,800 per FEU (forty-foot container), per FreightWaves. Keep Cape fallback clauses in 2027 contracts. Our call: unless a container ship is hit, Asia–North Europe spot dips below $3,000/FEU by end of December.
Trucking & Rail Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
J.B. Hunt wants bigger rail rate rises, and US inland costs follow. J.B. Hunt’s intermodal revenue per load rose just 2% in Q3 once fuel is stripped out (FreightWaves). Our view: that is about to change. Management told analysts on 15 October that it is “asking for larger rate increases” in 2027 bids. Its sales chief put the truck-to-rail price gap at “more than double” the usual 15% or so. Trucking is tight: J.B. Hunt’s truckload revenue per load rose 29% excluding fuel. Houston dray (port trucking) rates are up 34% year on year (Drayrates, via The Loadstar). Our call: forwarders will see mid-single-digit intermodal contract rises in Q1 2027 awards.
Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Manzanillo faces its second hurricane shutdown in a week. At 6pm Thursday, Hurricane Trudy had 90 mph winds and sat 385 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. NHC expects it to become a major hurricane by Friday night. It gives Manzanillo an 86% chance of tropical-storm-force winds within five days, and a 36% chance of hurricane-force winds. Our view: plan for Manzanillo to stop again this weekend. Hurricane Simon closed its terminals on 10 October. Gate, rail and vessel delays from both storms will stack up. We expect Manzanillo cargo to run late until at least end-October.
Trucking & Rail Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Diesel is $2.51 a gallon dearer than a year ago, and Russian barrels won’t fix that. US on-highway diesel averaged $6.179 a gallon this week, up $2.514 on a year ago, per EIA data reported by FleetOwner. Our view: Washington’s fuel moves are aimed at pump prices before the 3 November midterms, not at what shippers pay. A Russian deal for over 300,000 tons of diesel is “such a tiny amount,” said DAT’s Dean Croke. Diesel futures jumped 5% on 14 October. Fuel surcharges track the weekly EIA number, so expect no relief in quotes. Our call: the EIA average stays above $6.00 every week through end of November.
Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Gemini’s Asia-Gulf restart sends more boxes into a jammed Khor Fakkan. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd restart their direct Asia-Middle East loop on 17 October. The 8,400 TEU Maersk Athabasca leaves Qingdao that day and is due at Khor Fakkan on 16 November, not Jebel Ali (The Loadstar). Our view: this adds mainline volume to a port that already cannot clear what it has. Kuehne+Nagel expects Khor Fakkan “to remain under significant pressure in the coming weeks”. Maersk itself cites “vessel congestion and limited berth availability” there. Forwarders should budget for longer dwell and scarce trucks. Our call: a Gemini carrier adds a Khor Fakkan surcharge or diverts cargo by end-December.
Air Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Riyadh’s air cargo capacity fell 99%. Europe-bound rates are falling anyway. Riyadh’s King Khalid airport is shut until at least 17 October after strikes blamed on the Houthis. Cargo capacity there fell 99%, from 3,925 tonnes to 26 tonnes, The Loadstar reported. Our view: this is a Saudi problem, not a global one. Freightos says China–North Europe air rates fell 7% last week, while China–North America rose 3%. WorldACD puts China–US spot at $6.05/kg, up 30% on last year. Forwarders should route Saudi freight via Jeddah, Dammam or by road, and quote each lane on its own. Our call: even if the airport reopens after 17 October, at least some foreign airlines stay away through end of October.
Companies & Markets Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
Hackers claim 38 shipping and port firms. Your EDI data may be in the pile. Extortion group n0n listed 38 shipping lines, terminals and logistics firms on its leak site on 12 October, says security firm SOCRadar. It threatens to publish at 13:27 UTC on 19 October, demanding $2.4m to $14m. None has confirmed a breach. Our view: this looks like one shared software hole, not 38 break-ins. SOCRadar says the small, narrow datasets point to “one exposed application or vulnerability”. The claimed files are EDI messages and manifests, which carry forwarders’ customer data. Our call: expect phishing using real booking details from these firms before the end of Q4.
Trade & Customs Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
$30bn of tariff refunds now has a class action behind it, and it will be slow. About $166bn was collected under the struck-down IEEPA tariffs. About $126bn had been certified for refund by 2 October, according to Penn Wharton. On 8 October the Court of International Trade certified a class of every importer that paid and has not sued. The court says about $30bn would otherwise stay with the government. Our view: this is a safety net for small importers, not a quick payout. The parties’ timetable is due 22 October. Metro Global says an appeal could push things to spring or summer 2027. Our call: no class refunds before April 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
CBP wants low-value entries filed before arrival. Almost nobody does that today. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has proposed that informal entries (goods worth $2,500 or less) be filed on or before the day goods arrive, not within 15 days after. In CBP’s own sample of 392,473 entries, only 0.4% were filed before the day of arrival. In our view, this is the biggest workflow change for express and e-commerce brokers since de minimis was suspended in August 2025. Data capture has to move to origin. Our call: comments due 7 December will be dominated by requests for a phase-in, and nothing takes effect before mid-2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Mexico opens a zero-duty door for car kits, China’s included. Since 14 October, Mexico has charged 0% instead of 10% on auto parts imported for kit assembly, under tariff item 9803.00.01. The cut runs for five years, according to Mexico Business News. We think this is aimed squarely at Chinese carmakers. The relief covers parts “from all international origins”, and Cluster Industrial ties it to GAC’s plan to start kit assembly in Q4 2026. Only carmakers in a bonded warehouse (a “depósito fiscal”, where duty is suspended) qualify. Our call: the first Chinese kit shipments into Mexican bonded warehouses under the 0% rate land by end of Q1 2027.
Tech & AI Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Robot trucks are arriving in Texas through carriers you already use. Warrior Logistics, a Texas carrier with more than 200 trucks, now runs Waabi autonomous trucks on Dallas–Houston freight, FreightWaves reported on 14 October. Our view: autonomous capacity will reach forwarders through existing carriers, not new contracts. Waabi says routes have had 100% on-time pickup and delivery. Neither firm disclosed a truck count. On 7 October, FMCSA, the US truck safety regulator, granted a five-year exemption letting driverless trucks use cab beacons instead of roadside triangles. Ask your Texas carriers which loads run autonomously. Our prediction: at least one more Texas carrier signs a similar deal by end of Q1 2027.
Tech & AI Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
Delta Cargo now sells space inside CargoWise. Delta Cargo has joined WiseTech’s CargoWise Carrier Connectivity Program, WiseTech said on 13 October. CargoWise users can now see Delta’s live rates and capacity and book, confirm and change shipments without leaving the system, Air Cargo News reported. CargoWise says 23 of the 25 largest forwarders are its customers. In our view, this is Delta covering every channel at once: its own tools, the CargoAi marketplace since August, and now the forwarder’s own software. For forwarders, quotes get faster. But one supplier gains more control over how air space is sold. Our call: at least one more large airline joins by end of Q1 2027.
Tech & AI Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Carriers now get a vendor fix for “AI bot fatigue”. On 14 October, Carrier Logistics, which makes software for LTL (less-than-truckload) fleets, teamed up with LSP44 on an API that finds a shipment without its tracking number. Their stated target: “AI bot fatigue”. Our view: carriers will no longer absorb automated chasing for free. LSP44 also sells forwarders agents that confirm ETAs, and claims 60%+ fewer “where is my shipment” calls (FreightWaves). Forwarders should secure API access before bots lose the email channel. Our call: a large US LTL carrier restricts bot email tracking by end of Q1 2027.
Companies & Markets Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
The warehouse cushion is gone. Price 2027 storage accordingly. Warehouse landlord Prologis ended Q3 2026 with its portfolio 95.6% full, its results show. CEO Daniel S. Letter: “Customers are running lean on inventory, and excess capacity within their networks has largely cleared.” Our view: the cheap-space period of 2023-2025 is over. Prologis says leases starting in the quarter carried cash rents 23.4% above the ones they replaced. Cushman & Wakefield puts US industrial vacancy at 6.8%, its lowest since end-2024. For forwarders, that means dearer contract warehousing and less room to absorb tariff-driven stockpiling. Our call: US vacancy prints 6.7% or lower when Q4 data lands in January.
Companies & Markets Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
A Moller-family fund buys seven small-port terminals from Mitsui. A.P. Moller Capital has agreed to buy 100% of Singapore terminal operator Portek from Mitsui, Splash247 reported on 15 October. Portek has interests in seven terminals in six countries and handles about 700,000 containers a year. No price was given. Our view: this is a fund quietly building a network of secondary gateways. It agreed to buy control of Euroports, with more than 50 terminals, just weeks ago. Forwarders using Bejaia, Riga, Valletta or Tanjung Priok should expect new owners to revisit tariffs. Our call: the deal will not close before Q1 2027.
Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read
A container ship sinks at Hormuz, and the bypass ports are now in range. The 2,824 TEU feeder GFS Pride was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October and sank. All 21 crew got off. Sister ship GFS Giselle (4,350 TEU) was hit next day and reached anchorage under its own power. Our view: the Gulf of Oman ports shippers use to avoid the strait are no longer safe ground. Both ships ran loops out of Khor Fakkan and Fujairah. UKMTO logged 15 attacks between 6 and 14 October, Al Jazeera reports. We expect higher surcharges on UAE east-coast and Omani routings within four weeks.
Geopolitics Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read
Riyadh airport shut, Aramco HQ hit: the Red Sea discount is now on loan. Houthi missiles hit Saudi Aramco’s headquarters overnight, FreightWaves reported on 14 October. Riyadh’s main airport is shut until at least 17 October. Our view: the Asia-Europe rate slide was built on carriers returning to the Red Sea, and that return now depends on a Saudi-Houthi war. Asia-Mediterranean spot rates already rose 7% to $3,800 per 40-foot container last week (FreightWaves). Freightos calls it “uncertainty rather than a confirmed capacity shock”. For now. Our call: Asia-Med spot holds above $3,500 per container through end-November instead of resuming its fall.
Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Gemini’s Gulf loop returns to a port that is already full. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd restart their Asia–Middle East loop on 17 October, after more than six months off. It skips Jebel Ali and calls at Khor Fakkan, which sits outside the Strait of Hormuz. Our view: this adds ships, not room. Gulftainer’s weekly volume there has jumped from about 8,000 to 65,000 teu (Drewry), and Kuehne+Nagel expects Khor Fakkan and Fujairah “to remain under significant pressure in the coming weeks”. Maersk is already moving boxes inland to Sajja. Plan for trucking delays. Our call: by the end of November, some FM1/AGX cargo will be moved on to Jebel Ali.
Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Suez is back, and Asia–Europe rates are losing their floor. Large container ships will soon make more than 50 Suez Canal transits a week, analyst Linerlytica said on 13 October. It now calls the market outlook negative. We agree, and we think the carriers’ late-October rate increases on Asia–Europe will not hold. Drewry says Asia–Europe rates have fallen for 13 weeks running, with Shanghai–Rotterdam at $3,337 per 40ft container. Xeneta’s Peter Sand: “we are not at the floor yet.” For forwarders, shorter Suez routings free up ships and put the leverage with shippers. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam on Drewry’s index will be below $3,000 by the end of November.
Trade & Customs Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
US regulator targets Spanish olive oil and tile, not just Spanish ships. The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has proposed a $200,000 fee on every voyage a Spanish-flagged ship makes into a US port, plus possible import limits on five groups of Spanish goods. Our view: the fee is for show; the goods list is the pressure. The FMC itself says “relatively few” Spanish-flagged ships call at US ports. The goods in scope were worth about $3.1 billion in 2025, olive oil alone nearly $837 million. Affected importers should comment by mid-December. Our call: nothing takes effect before February 2027.
Air Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read
Air rates dipped 2.1% over Golden Week. The peak is still on, but not to Europe. The Baltic Air Freight Index, by TAC Index, fell 2.1% last week over Golden Week. It is still 24.3% above a year ago. Our view: this is a holiday pause, not a turn. TAC called the dip “not unusual” for the holiday and said the market remains “pretty firm”. WorldACD puts September rates 25% higher year on year. But China–Europe is weak at $3.58/kg (Freightos), hit by the end of EU de minimis. Our call: through November, transpacific stays tight and China–Europe stays below $4/kg.
Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
38 shipping and port firms named by one extortion gang. Check your EDI links now. An extortion group called n0n has named 38 shipping and port organisations in 18 countries on its leak site. The list includes ONE, Santos Brasil, BNCT in Busan and TTI Algeciras. Demands run from $2.4m to $14m. The deadline is 19 October. No company has confirmed a breach. Our view is that the likely target is the shared data pipes between carriers, terminals and forwarders. SOCRadar says the pattern points to a possible common entry point. Forwarders should ask their carriers and terminals about it this week. Our call: at least one named firm confirms an incident by 31 October.
Trucking & Rail Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
US truck rates barely moved after quarter-end. Diesel is still $6.18. The US dry van spot rate rose 3 cents to $3.12 a mile in DAT’s 4–10 October report, even as load posts fell 18%. Diesel averaged $6.179 a gallon on 12 October, the EIA says, $2.51 above a year ago. Our view: this is not a quarter-end blip. DAT’s Dean Croke says “Linehaul rates are about a third above last year,” and truck posts are more than 20% below a year ago. US inland legs will stay expensive. Our call: the DAT van rate stays above $3.00 a mile through mid-November.
Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read
Hapag-Lloyd adds ships to save ZIM deal, but time is the problem. Hapag-Lloyd has sweetened its $4.2 billion ZIM takeover for Israel: 16 ships for a new Israeli carrier instead of 11, plus a new Asia route. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen says the plan gives Israel “materially more maritime independence”. Our view: the terms are better, but the clock is worse. Israel’s state shareholder body stopped its review, so any new plan starts from zero. The Loadstar says the deal faces a February 2027 deadline to close. Forwarders should treat ZIM as a standalone carrier for 2027 contracts. We expect no Israeli approval before 31 December 2026.
Companies & Markets Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
DSV opens Q3 season with its Road unit on trial. DSV reports third-quarter results on 21 October, a day before Kuehne+Nagel. J.P. Morgan has just cut its Q3 profit forecast for DSV’s Road division to DKK 412m from DKK 715m. Our view: Road, not air or sea, will decide how this quarter is judged. J.P. Morgan says it has “lost conviction” in the Schenker deal’s earnings story. DSV’s own management told analysts to “take a couple of percentage points off” Road. Expect sharp European road pricing as DSV fights to win back lost volume. Our call: on 21 October DSV keeps its 2026 profit range but points to the lower half.
Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read
Trudy is aiming at the ports Simon just closed. Tropical Storm Trudy had 65 mph winds at 3 p.m. Mexico City time on 14 October (NHC Advisory 6). The forecast makes it a major hurricane by Friday. NHC gives Manzanillo a 67% chance of tropical-storm-force winds by Monday and Lázaro Cárdenas 60%. Our view: the danger for cargo is less a direct hit than a fresh closure days after Simon’s. The Navy closed both ports to all shipping during Hurricane Simon. Our call: both are closed between Friday and Sunday, and Pacific Mexico schedules slip three to five days into the week of 26 October.
Trade & Customs Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Solar duties of over 100% hit India, Indonesia and Laos from 2 November. On 14 October the US International Trade Commission (ITC) cleared final anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos. Commerce issues the orders on 2 November. Cash deposits start after that. India’s rates are 123.04% anti-dumping and 126.09% anti-subsidy. Our view: this lane is finished, not repriced. In 2024 the US imported about $1.5 billion of these goods from the three countries, per Commerce. Forwarders should expect stricter origin checks on cells. Our call: monthly imports from the three countries fall more than 90% from 2024 levels by March 2027.
Tech & AI Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Delta Cargo is now bookable inside CargoWise. Watch what it leaves out. Delta Cargo has connected directly to CargoWise, the freight software that, by CargoWise’s count, 23 of the 25 largest global forwarders use. Forwarders can now see Delta’s schedules, rates and capacity and book, change and confirm shipments without leaving the system. Our view: this is good news for desk time, but the real test is whether the price on screen matches the price on other channels. Delta’s offer on booking platform CargoAi, reported in August, includes allotment booking. This announcement does not mention allotments. Our call: at least one more major US or European passenger airline announces a direct CargoWise link within six months.
Tech & AI Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Self-driving trucks on I-45 are moving into ordinary carrier networks. Waabi has signed Warrior Logistics, a Texas carrier with more than 200 trucks of its own, to move routine customer freight between Dallas and Houston on its self-driving trucks (FreightWaves, 14 October). A day earlier, Bot Auto put its autonomy hardware at about $50,000 per truck. Our view: Texas autonomy is shifting from pilot projects to everyday capacity, and it is getting a price. Waabi’s trucks are not yet driverless, so costs have not fallen yet. Our call: Waabi runs its first driver-out load on Dallas–Houston by the end of Q2 2027.
Tech & AI Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read
A 97.3% approval rate is not a savings figure. New York startup Evos raised $9 million on 14 October for AI “operators” that audit carrier invoices and build loads. At one freight brokerage, managers accepted 97.3% of nearly 3,500 audit decisions as proposed, according to Evos. Our view: back-office AI is now doing real clerical work, but the proof is still about approval rates, not money recovered. Evos gave no savings figure. FreightWaves cites a BCG survey of logistics providers and shippers: just 13% reported measurable value from AI. Forwarders should ask for recovered dollars before signing. Our call: by mid-April 2027, buyers will want dollar results, and the vendors that publish them will win.
Trade & Customs Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Mexico cuts car-kit duty to zero while finished cars from China pay 50%. Since 14 October, Mexico charges 0% instead of 10% on car-assembly parts under tariff line 9803.00.01, for five years. Only carmakers with a bonded-warehouse permit qualify, and the decree names kit assembly (SKD/CKD) projects. Most new cars from countries without a trade deal with Mexico, China included, have paid 50% since 1 January. Our view: this opens a cheaper route in for kits, not cars. Forwarders should expect more containerised kit cargo into Mexican bonded plants. Our call: at least one Asian carmaker announces a Mexican kit-assembly line by end of March 2027.
Companies & Markets Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
DHL puts DHL Express freighters behind pharma to Asia. DHL Global Forwarding has added six temperature-controlled air corridors from Europe and the US to Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo and Seoul, Air Cargo News reported on 13 October. Most of the flying is on DHL Express-branded aircraft. Our view: a forwarder now sells capacity on its own group’s branded freighters, and asset-light rivals will struggle to match that. In February DHL said it was “reducing reliance on third-party carriers and commercial airlines”. Expect pharma tenders on these lanes to use it as a benchmark. We predict DHL names a Middle East or Latin America corridor by end of Q2 2027.
Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read
Panama’s extra slot is a pause, not a recovery. From 15 October, the Panama Canal offers 33 daily transit slots, up from 32. The extra one is in the big Neopanamax locks, where the draft limit (how deep a loaded ship may sit) rose to 49 feet, per a Panama Canal Authority advisory. We think this is a short break before a harder 2027. The canal ran 38 transits a day in May. The authority itself says “the water deficit continues”. Forwarders on Asia–US East Coast lanes should price Panama risk into 2027 contracts now. Our call: slots fall back to 32 or fewer by end of February 2027.
Geopolitics Oct 13, 2026 · 8 min read
An inbound boxship was among six ships hit at Hormuz. Plan Gulf cargo around the strait through year-end. Six commercial ships were reported struck in and around the Strait of Hormuz on 11 October. Five were tankers and one was an inbound container ship (gCaptain). Our view: the strait is now a risk for container ships too, not just tankers. Transits ran at about 29 a day against a usual 138 (US NCAGS, via gCaptain). Iran called the US reply on reopening “insufficient” (Reuters). Forwarders should route Upper Gulf cargo through Omani and UAE east-coast ports by default. Our prediction: no return to normal container transits through Hormuz before 31 December.
Geopolitics Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea backdoor is now inside the war zone. The Saudi-led coalition hit sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah and Dhamar on Tuesday, after a Houthi missile strike on Riyadh airport on Saturday killed 13 people, Reuters reports. Our view: the Red Sea route that replaced Hormuz is no longer a safe fallback. Hormuz has been shut since February. Saudi Arabia has been sending more than 70% of its crude exports to Yanbu, The National reported in July. The Houthis say targets could include Aramco and a Riyadh refinery. Expect higher costs and slower air freight. Our call: Jeddah and Yanbu war-risk insurance quotes rise above July’s 0.1% within six weeks.
Ocean Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Gemini’s Gulf loop is back, and it ends at Khor Fakkan. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are restarting their Asia–Middle East loop (FM1/AGX), suspended since 27 March. The first ship, the 8,400 teu Maersk Athabasca, leaves Qingdao on 17 October and is due at Khor Fakkan on 16 November. Jebel Ali is dropped. In our view, this does not reopen the Gulf. It turns the Hormuz bypass into a permanent fixture. Xeneta says spot rates to Khor Fakkan rose 479% to $10,626 per 40ft by early September. One loop won’t fix that. Our call: no mainline Asia service calls Jebel Ali directly before the end of Q4.
Ocean Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Transpacific rates hold near their peak while Asia-Europe keeps sliding. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 2% to US$4,351 per 40-foot container (FEU) on 8 October. Our view: this is a slow drift, not a crash. The two main trades are splitting apart. Shanghai–Los Angeles slipped 3% to US$7,624, while Shanghai–Rotterdam is at US$3,337, less than half of that. Xeneta’s Peter Sand called the first West Coast dip “a marginal move, but the first dip since mid-September”. Forwarders should keep transpacific quotes short and push Europe tenders now. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam on the Drewry index goes below US$3,000 by mid-November.
Air Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Air spot rates are 32% up on last year, and winter cuts will push them higher. Global air spot rates were 32% higher than a year ago in the first week of October, according to WorldACD data reported by Air Cargo Week. China–US spot averaged US$6.05/kg in September, up 30%. We think the price relief many expected after the summer is not coming. Capacity to and from the Gulf is still about 17% below late February. Now airlines such as Lufthansa are reported to be trimming winter passenger schedules, which removes belly space. Our call: global spot rates stay at least 20% above last year through the end of November.
Ocean Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Maersk lifts US trucking fuel charge 54% as diesel falls. Maersk will raise its US inland fuel surcharge from US$140 to US$215 per container from 1 November, Container News reports. Our view: forwarders are now paying for spring and summer diesel, not today’s. EIA data show US diesel fell for two straight weeks to US$6.199 a gallon on 5 October. Maersk’s charge tracks a 13-week average, which lags. CMA CGM adds US$750 per TEU (20-foot box) on Far East–Durban from 22 October. Our call: Maersk’s US$215 stays in place until at least the end of 2026, even if pump prices keep easing.
Trade & Customs Oct 13, 2026 · 8 min read
Second ship sunk off Bulgaria in a week. Western Black Sea cargo will cost more. A drone-hit cargo ship, HS Dignity, sank off Bulgaria overnight with 11 crew missing, Reuters reported on 13 October. It was heading for Braila, Romania. A second ship, Chelsea-3, was hit by three drones. A week earlier, another drone attack in Bulgaria’s economic zone left 10 sailors lost. Our view: the “safe” western corridor to Romania is no longer safe. In September, London insurers widened their high-risk zone to the whole Black Sea. Romanian and Bulgarian coastal waters were left out. We expect underwriters to start charging extra for Constanta and Danube calls by end of November.
Trade & Customs Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
From Wednesday, US-melted steel cuts the tariff bill on Mexican and Canadian machines. The US Commerce Department publishes its definition of “U.S. content” on Wednesday, 14 October. It decides how much of a Canadian or Mexican metal product escapes a 25% Section 232 duty. That is 128 days after the duty started on 8 June. In our view, the rule matters less than the paperwork. Value now counts if the steel was “melted and poured in the United States” (Federal Register). The proclamation sets a 15% floor, so in our arithmetic US content above 40% saves nothing more. Our call: CBP requests for mill proof on these entries will be routine by end of Q1 2027.
Trucking & Rail Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Cross-border truck capacity is tight because drivers are missing, not because freight is busy. TRAFFIX’s October cross-border index reads 57 for Canada and 54 for Mexico. Anything above 50 means capacity is tight. Our view: this squeeze comes from missing drivers and rules, not from strong demand, so it won’t ease quickly. US authorities have reportedly withdrawn about 25,000 Mexican drivers’ visas, according to CANACAR, Mexico’s trucking chamber. On some Canada corridors, rates are up 25% to 35% in four to six weeks. Expect carriers to hand back more contract loads. Our call: neither index drops below 50 before the end of Q1 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Trade court opens a refund route for importers who never sued. On 8 October the US Court of International Trade certified a class of importers that paid IEEPA tariffs between 1 February 2025 and 19 February 2026 and never filed their own suit. The judge says about $30bn would otherwise stay with the government. Our view: this is the main route left for small importers, but it is not money yet. The court has not ordered payment, and a government appeal is still pending. Forwarders and brokers should expect client calls now. We expect no class member to see a refund before the end of Q1 2027.
Air Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Samsung SDS buys the air space 1,200 forwarders rely on. Samsung SDS has agreed to buy 100% of Woojung Air, an Incheon air consolidator that handles more than 60,000 tonnes a year for over 1,200 forwarders, The Loadstar reports. No price was given. Our view: the buyers of Woojung’s space now buy from a rival. Woojung made ₩3bn operating profit on ₩213.9bn revenue last year, about 1.4%. In January, Samsung SDS said it planned to strengthen air freight, citing “more stable profitability compared to ocean logistics”. Forwarders should line up a second source of Incheon space now. We expect at least one rival Korean consolidator to change hands or sign a platform tie-up by mid-2027.
Tech & AI Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Your next customer may book through ChatGPT, not your portal. Samsara says its latest 500,000 AI agent sessions took 16 days, against 112 days for the first 500,000 after its June launch. More than 1,000 organisations use its agents weekly. On 12 October, forwarder Freight Right Global Logistics let shippers quote, track and start bookings from inside ChatGPT, Claude and Copilot. Our view: the AI assistant is becoming a freight sales channel. Forwarders with no machine connection to it will simply not appear. Our prediction: by the end of March 2027, at least two of the ten largest global forwarders will announce a similar assistant connection.
Tech & AI Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Bot Auto says driverless kit will cost $50,000 a truck. The savings are still a promise. Houston’s Bot Auto says the full hardware for its driverless trucks, computer and sensors, will cost about $50,000 per truck, FreightWaves reported on 13 October. Deployment on Lenovo’s AD1 computer starts in Q1 2027. Our view: a cheaper kit is necessary, but it does not make driverless freight cheaper on its own. Werner’s CFO said in September that “the economics are not favorable to autonomous right now.” Bot Auto moves about 350 loads a month in Texas. Our call: no driverless discount shows up on Texas truckload quotes before the second half of 2027.
Geopolitics Oct 13, 2026 · 8 min read
Chittagong workers set 19 October deadline over DP World terminal deal. Bangladesh signed a 15-year deal on 8 October handing DP World the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT) at Chittagong. The port’s workers now threaten a “fast unto death” from 19 October, The Loadstar reports. Our view: the deal will stand, but the risk is another walkout. In February a strike against the same deal stranded about 13,000 export containers, according to Prothom Alo. NCT carries over 40% of the port’s container traffic, per Maritime Gateway. For forwarders shipping Bangladesh garments, that means real peak-season risk. Our call: expect at least one work stoppage at Chittagong before the end of November.
Geopolitics Oct 12, 2026 · 9 min read
Tanker attacks reach the anchorages that let freight dodge Hormuz. A drone hit the tanker Petro Dolphin at Sohar anchorage in Oman on Sunday 11 October. Two Indian seafarers are missing (Marine Insight). Two days earlier a 302,000-tonne tanker was hit off Sharjah (Splash247). Our view: the ports that let cargo avoid the Strait of Hormuz are no longer safe ground. Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Sohar have been taking diverted Gulf cargo (AGBI). Only 4 ships crossed Hormuz on 4 October, against 85 a day before the crisis (IMF PortWatch via straits.live). Our call: by mid-November, at least one major container line adds or raises a surcharge for Gulf of Oman ports.
Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Suez is back on Asia–Europe schedules, but one insurance bill wipes out the saving. Asia–Europe carriers keep shifting services back through Suez, even after CU Lines’ 2,400 teu CUL Klang was reported under small-arms fire in the southern Red Sea last week (The Loadstar). We think this return is thin and reversible. Drewry puts the Suez saving at about $1m per round voyage, or $43 per slot. A 0.3% war-risk premium on a $225m ship cancels it. MSC still charges $91/teu in piracy and Suez surcharges through October. Forwarders should quote transit times and cargo cover per service. Our call: those surcharges are still on invoices in November.
Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Spot rates fell over Golden Week. The 19 October increases look unlikely to hold. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 2% to $4,351 per 40ft container in the week to 8 October. Asia–Europe has now fallen for 13 weeks in a row. In our view, the carrier increases due on 19 October will not hold. MSC filed $4,500 to North Europe. Xeneta’s Far East–North Europe spot average is $3,645, and Chinese forwarders are offering $2,650. Xeneta’s Peter Sand says “we are not at the floor yet.” Shippers should not lock in contracts yet. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays under $3,600 on Drewry’s index through November.
Air Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Air rates are up 25% on last year. The fuel bill comes next. Global air cargo rates in September were 25% higher than a year earlier, WorldACD says, on tonnage up 9%. Our view: that is the cheap part. Jet fuel was up 108% year on year by 2 October, TAC Index reports, citing IATA and Platts data. TAC says rates “had not risen yet anything like so much as jet fuel prices”. Fuel is typically 25% to a third of airline costs. Forwarders should build surcharge changes into every peak quote. Our call: at least two big cargo airlines raise fuel surcharges on Asia long-haul before mid-November.
Trade & Customs Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read
Trade court opens a refund route for small importers. No money moves this year. On 8 October the US Court of International Trade certified a nationwide class of importers who paid IEEPA tariffs from 1 February 2025 to 19 February 2026 and never sued. The court estimates about $30bn would otherwise stay with the government. Our view: this is the right door, but it is not a payment. ArentFox Schiff’s James Kim said the decision “doesn’t immediately expand refund eligibility or direct payment.” The Justice Department is still appealing refunds for non-plaintiffs. Brokers should list clients who never filed in CAPE (Customs’ refund portal). Our call: no class-wide refund order before end of Q1 2027.
Geopolitics Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Black Sea war cover for one tanker trip: $2.5m, up from $200,000. War-risk insurance for one tanker crossing the Black Sea has risen to about $2.5m, from roughly $200,000, says Lukoil’s Bulgarian commercial manager Evgeni Simeonov (TokenPost). We think the western Black Sea is now a war zone in pricing terms. Splash reports premiums rose from about 0.1% to 0.5% of vessel value in two weeks. Russian Baltic grain loadings rose from 216,000t to 1.16m t in September (IFCHOR Galbraiths). Constanta, Varna and Danube cargo will cost more. Our call: premiums reach 1% of vessel value by end-November.
Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Manila’s box jam is about empties, not ships, and more carriers will act. Hapag-Lloyd has taken no new bookings to Manila, Batangas or Subic Bay since 29 September, and the stop runs to the end of December, Splash247 reports. It blames “severe constraints on container returns.” Our view: this is a landside equipment crisis. Hapag-Lloyd puts Manila ship waits at 2–4 days, while some truckers have waited up to 40 days to hand back an empty box. AB Capital analysts warn “the bigger risk is other carriers following Hapag-Lloyd’s lead.” Our call: at least one more major line restricts Philippine bookings or adds a surcharge by end-November.
Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read
LA’s record September is the peak arriving late, not a new floor. The Port of Los Angeles handled 1,042,652 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) in September, its busiest month in 118 years, the port said on 9 October. Loaded imports rose 19% year on year. Our view: this is a delayed peak season, not a new baseline. Imports were flat in August. The NRF’s own trackers expect US imports to fall 1% in November, and its supply chain chief says “Most holiday merchandise has arrived.” For forwarders, October space is still tight, but it should ease within weeks. Our call: LA’s November total, due mid-December, comes in below 900,000 TEU.
Trade & Customs Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Trump says the US does not need Canada. Plan for a Mexico-first deal and Canada risk into 2027. At a 10 October rally, Trump said the US will make a new trade deal with Mexico and does not need Canada, as reported by The Rio Times. On 12 October, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum said: “There is progress, there is no final agreement yet, but we keep talking.” Our view: this is a two-track negotiation, and Canada lanes carry most of the risk. US–Mexico freight hit $94.8bn in July, up 27.5% (BTS). Canada has a 50% tariff on its cars and steel due in January. We expect no signed US–Mexico text before the 3 November midterms.
Tech & AI Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Driverless trucks get five clear years, and Laredo is next. US regulators have given driverless trucks a five-year exemption, running to 7 October 2031. They can use cab-mounted warning beacons instead of a person setting out roadside triangles (FMCSA, via FreightWaves). In our view the rulebook is no longer the main obstacle. Cost is. Kodiak is already hauling on a 435-mile Dallas–Laredo lane with a safety driver on board, and Aurora has a deal on the same lane. Laredo handled more than $350bn of trade in 2025. Our call: the first fully driverless loads run on Dallas–Laredo by the end of Q1 2027.
Companies & Markets Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read
Samsung SDS is buying airline space, not profit. Samsung SDS has agreed to buy 100% of Woojung Air, a Korean air consolidator that made KRW3bn operating profit on KRW213.9bn revenue last year (The Loadstar). That is a 1.4% margin. Our view: this deal is about control of airline space and the Incheon terminal, not earnings. Samsung SDS’s own logistics margin was about 1.2% in the first half (Asia Economy). Woojung sells space to more than 1,200 forwarders, and those forwarders will now be buying from a rival. Our call: by end of Q2 2027, Woojung space will be bookable inside Samsung SDS’s Cello Square platform.
Trucking & Rail Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Diesel is off its peak, but US trucking still costs about 40 cents a mile more in fuel than last year. US diesel averaged $6.199 a gallon in the week of 5 October. That is 18.3 cents lower than the week before, but $2.49 above a year ago (EIA). Our view: this is a breather, not relief. Diesel set a record of $6.529 on 21 September. DAT says van spot rates rose to $3.13 a mile at quarter-end. J.B. Hunt has already warned that fuel and driver costs hit its third quarter. It reports on Thursday. Our call: diesel stays above $5.50 on EIA’s weekly series through the end of 2026.
Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read
Isaias cost Mobile two days. The Panhandle ports are still shut. The Coast Guard reopened the Port of Mobile at 16:00 on Saturday 10 October, less than a day after Hurricane Isaias came ashore near Destin as a Category 2 storm (Baird Maritime). Gulfport and Pascagoula are back to normal too. In our view the box market barely notices this one. The real delay is in the Florida Panhandle. Pensacola, Destin, Panama City and Port St. Joe still have commercial ship movements suspended. The Gulf Intracoastal Waterway between miles 167 and 376 is still in recovery. Our call: all four Panhandle ports take ships again by Saturday 17 October.
Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Chattogram hunger strike puts 44% of the port’s boxes at risk. More than 100 port workers and union activists at Chattogram, Bangladesh, began a hunger strike on Monday 12 October. They want DP World’s new 15-year deal to run the New Mooring Container Terminal cancelled. That terminal handles about 44% of the port’s containers (Splash247). Our view: take this seriously. In February, strikes against the same plan halted vessel movement at the port (The Daily Star). Forwarders moving Bangladesh apparel should build slack into November bookings. Our call: at least one work stoppage at Chattogram linked to this deal before the end of November.
Tech & AI Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read
UK tells ships not to count on GPS in the Gulf, Black Sea or Baltic. Britain’s Maritime and Coastguard Agency has told ships to plan for satellite navigation failing. Windward counted an average of 5,131 GPS jamming incidents a day in Q3, hitting more than 124,000 vessels, Splash247 reports. Our view: this is now a data problem for forwarders, not just a problem for the bridge. In one September week, 379 ships in the Gulf of Oman logged 1,702 impossible position jumps. Ship-tracking ETAs in those waters are a guess. Our call: by end of Q1 2027, at least one major visibility platform will start flagging ETAs built on jammed positions.
Geopolitics Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read
Tankers are now being hit at anchor, not just in the strait. Two outbound tankers were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on 10 and 11 October, according to UKMTO, the UK’s maritime incident-reporting centre. On 11 October the tanker Petro Dolphin came under drone attack at Oman’s Sohar anchorage. Two of its 11 Indian crew are missing. Our view: the Gulf of Oman is no longer a safe waiting room. Kpler counted just seven commodity ships through Hormuz on 6 October, against about 125 a day before the war. Iran called the US reply to its terms “insufficient”. Our call: carriers will price Sohar and Fujairah calls like Gulf calls within six weeks.
Trade & Customs Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read
Trade court opens a refund route for importers who never sued. On Thursday 8 October the US Court of International Trade certified a class of importers who paid IEEPA tariffs between 1 February 2025 and 19 February 2026, according to Supply Chain Dive. The court estimates about $30bn would otherwise stay with the government. Our view: good news for small importers, but no money moves yet. A lawyer at ArentFox Schiff told Supply Chain Dive the decision “doesn’t immediately expand refund eligibility or direct payment.” Brokers should list clients’ old entries now. Our call: no class-wide refunds are paid before the end of 2026.
Air Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Riyadh is shut and Dammam is hit. Saudi air cargo now has one working gateway. Riyadh’s King Khalid airport stayed closed on Sunday after its second strike in two days. Saturday’s missile killed 12 people and wounded more than 300, Fox News reported. Reuters put the toll at 13. Dammam was also targeted. Our view: for now, Saudi air freight runs through Jeddah or it waits. At Jeddah, Flightradar24 counted 156 cancellations and 374 delays on Sunday. Forwarders should rebook Riyadh and Dammam freight via Jeddah and truck it on, and warn customers about delays. We expect Riyadh to stay restricted until the FAA’s warning expires on 10 December.
Ocean Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Hapag-Lloyd wants $4,200 from 19 October. The market is at $3,337. Shanghai to Rotterdam spot fell 2% to $3,337 per 40ft container on 8 October, Drewry’s index shows. Asia-Europe rates have now fallen for 13 weeks in a row. On 19 October, Hapag-Lloyd’s new FAK (freight all kinds, its standard tariff rate) for North Europe is $4,200, about 26% higher. We don’t think it holds. Blank sailings are low. Drewry calls the faster-than-expected return to Suez “the biggest threat to carrier efforts to support rates”. Forwarders should quote Q4 Asia-Europe off the spot market, not off the tariff. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays below $4,000 all October.
Ocean Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
HMM Platinum fire: every shipper on board may have to pay, burnt box or not. The 5,593 teu HMM Platinum caught fire off southern Madagascar with around 2,300 containers on board, bound from India to Santos, Brazil. Salvors SMIT are on the job. Claims firm W.E. Cox says “GA will likely be declared”. Our view: uninsured shippers carry the real risk here. In general average (GA), cargo owners share the cost of saving the voyage, even if their boxes are untouched. After the 2018 Maersk Honam fire, release cost 54% of cargo value. Our call: GA is formally declared by 31 October, and Santos-bound cargo is not delivered before December.
Trucking & Rail Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read
A Russian diesel waiver will not fix US truck costs. On Sunday 11 October, Republican Senator Thom Tillis said Trump’s Russian diesel deal may break the law, per Reuters via gCaptain. The US Treasury licence pausing sanctions on Russian diesel runs to April 2027, AP reports. Our view: it won’t bring truck costs down quickly. EIA put US diesel at $6.199 a gallon on 5 October, $2.488 above a year ago. The September Logistics Managers’ Index scored transport capacity at 34.4, deep in contraction. J.B. Hunt reports on 15 October. Our call: US diesel stays above $5.50 through end-November, and fuel surcharges stay high.
Ocean Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Panama’s extra slot on Thursday is a breather before the next dry season. From Thursday 15 October the Panama Canal offers 33 daily transit slots, up from 32. Its bigger Neopanamax locks get a tenth slot. On 28 September the canal also raised the deepest allowed Neopanamax draft (how far a ship sits below the waterline) to 49 feet. We think this is a short breather, not a recovery. The canal says a water deficit persists. Ships without a booking “may therefore face indefinite delays”. Strait of Magellan traffic rose more than 70% year on year in August and September. Our call: new cuts to slots or draft before end-February 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Trump says Mexico gets a new deal and Canada is not needed. At a rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, on Saturday 10 October, President Trump said the US would make a new trade deal with Mexico and did not need Canada, The Rio Times reported. He gave no date, content or legal form. Our view: treat this as a signal, not a deal. North American trade is splitting into two lanes. Mexico freight is growing fast: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) data put July US–Mexico trade at $94.8 billion, up 27.5%. Canada faces threatened 50% tariffs on autos, parts and steel from 1 January 2027. Our call: no signed US–Mexico deal text before 12 January 2027.
Tech & AI Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Driverless trucks lose their three-month rule cliff. On 7 October, the US Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) gave driverless trucks a five-year exemption that runs to 7 October 2031. They can use beacons mounted on the cab instead of putting out warning triangles after a stop. In our view, the rules no longer cap this capacity. The supply of trucks does. The exemption covers every Level 4 carrier that notifies the agency, not just Aurora. Kodiak has just opened a 435-mile Dallas–Laredo lane. Our call: before the end of Q1 2027, Texas shippers will start getting autonomous line-haul priced into their 2027 contracts.
Trade & Customs Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read
Brussels says China will halve hybrid car exports to Europe. The EU and China closed two days of trade talks in Beijing on 9 October. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič says the deal is to “halve HEV, PHEV exports”, meaning hybrids and plug-in hybrids. China’s statement gave no figure. Our view: hybrids are the only hard number here. The rest is promises. Hybrid imports from China rose from 3,800 in October 2024 to 50,000 in July 2026, per Financial Times data cited by CnEVPost. Expect fewer hybrids on China–Europe car carriers. Our call: China extends its rare-earth export-control pause before it ends on 10 November.
Ocean Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read
Isaias cost Mobile about two days. The Panhandle is the slower story. Hurricane Isaias hit near Destin, Florida, on Friday night as a Category 2 storm. By Saturday the Coast Guard said Gulfport, Mobile and Pascagoula were “back up and running in normal mode.” Destin, Panama City and Pensacola stayed restricted. Our view: for containers this was a short pause, not a crisis. Mobile handles about 600,000 TEU (20-foot containers) a year and stopped vessel work at noon Thursday. After Hurricane Michael in 2018, Panama City was still on daylight-only operations days later. Our call: Mobile is clear of its backlog by 18 October. Panhandle restrictions last longer.
Tech & AI Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Freightmate admits using some of 2,000 Flexport files as trade-secrets case settles. AI forwarding-software start-up Freightmate and its founders admitted using some of about 2,000 confidential Flexport shipping documents, The Loadstar reported on 9 October. The deal ends Flexport’s suit before a 19 October trial. An independent forensic examiner reports by 30 January 2027. In our view, the money matters less than the precedent: where a freight AI tool’s data came from is now a contract question. Flexport said “the ruling speaks for itself”. Forwarders buying AI document tools should ask vendors where their training and test data came from. We expect provenance warranties in vendor contracts by end of Q1 2027.
Geopolitics Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read
The Dutch want the power to stop false-flag tankers, and Moscow is threatening to answer. On Friday 9 October the Dutch government proposed a law letting it detain ships under a false flag in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ, the sea area out to 200 nautical miles) and send them to an anchorage or port for inspection, Bloomberg reported. In our view, the North Sea route into Rotterdam and Antwerp is becoming an enforcement zone. Belgium seized the tanker Ethera there in February. France has stopped five tankers since September 2025. Russia’s embassy asked if The Hague “is ready for Russia’s counteractions?” Our call: the Netherlands boards its first false-flag tanker by end of Q1 2027.
Geopolitics Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Hormuz attacks hit a wartime high as strikes move deeper into the Gulf. Ships were attacked 12 times between 28 September and 7 October, the most in any week since the US-Iran war began, according to Lloyd’s List via USNI News. Two of the latest hits were well inside the Gulf, off Qatar and the UAE, according to Reuters via gCaptain. Our view: the danger zone is now the whole Gulf, and the extra cost is not going away. Maersk still charges $1,000 per container to cross Hormuz, on top of emergency freight of up to $3,800. Quote Gulf cargo all-in, with short validity. We expect Maersk’s Hormuz fee to still be in place on 31 December.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Transpacific spot rates turn lower as Xeneta calls the peak. Shanghai–Los Angeles spot rates fell 3% to $7,624 per 40ft container on 8 October, according to Drewry. Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand says US-bound rates have peaked, “but they will not collapse”. We think he is right, and the East Coast has the furthest to fall. Sand forecasts $6,000–7,000 to the East Coast within three months, against $11,523 on 1 October. Transpacific blank sailings (cancelled voyages) drop from eleven to four next week, according to Drewry. Forwarders should stop quoting off September rates. Our call: Xeneta’s West Coast average below $6,500 by mid-December.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
MSC files $4,500 Asia–North Europe rate for 19 October, with the spot market near $3,300. MSC has filed a $4,500 per 40ft container FAK (freight all kinds, a carrier’s base rate for any cargo) from the Far East to North Europe from 19 October, according to The Loadstar. Drewry has Shanghai–Rotterdam at $3,337, after 13 straight weekly falls. We don’t think it sticks. More ships are switching back to the shorter Suez route, and that frees capacity. Linerlytica calls the return “the biggest threat to carrier efforts to reverse the rate slide”. Keep spot quotes short and watch for new surcharges. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays under $3,600 into early November.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Intra-Asia box rates slip 1% after a record run, but Shanghai–Jebel Ali holds at $8,662. Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index fell 1% to $1,503 per 40ft container in its latest weekly reading, ending six straight weekly gains, according to The Loadstar. It is still up 209% on a year ago. We read this as a pause, not a turn. Rates held flat through Golden Week, China’s early-October holiday, after falling 12% last year. Shanghai–Jebel Ali sits at $8,662, almost six times the index. Few new feeder ships, the small vessels that link regional ports to hubs, keep short-sea legs tight. Our call: the index drifts lower through November but stays above $1,300, and the Gulf lane stays above $8,000 to year-end.
Air Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Air cargo enters Q4 25% dearer than last year, while China–US dips over Golden Week. Global air cargo spot rates were 25.5% higher than a year earlier in the week to 5 October, according to TAC Index. The one soft lane was China–North America, which fell 18% in a week to about $5.60/kg as China shut for Golden Week, according to Freightos. Our view: the China dip is a holiday lull, not a turn. Jet fuel costs have doubled, and Xeneta says fixed one-year air deals are becoming the exception. Forwarders should quote short validities. Our call: China–North America rates are back above $6/kg by the end of October.
Geopolitics Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Houthi strikes cut Riyadh’s outbound air cargo capacity by 34%. Outbound air cargo capacity from Riyadh fell 34% to 848 tonnes in the 24 hours after Houthi strikes on Saudi airports, compared with a week earlier, according to Rotate data cited by The Loadstar. Lufthansa and Air India suspended flights. Our view: Saudi Arabia is running out of workarounds. With Hormuz disrupted, its airports and Red Sea coast were the bypass. Both are now under fire, and the fight for the Bab el-Mandeb shore goes on, according to Bloomberg. Book Saudi peak space early and plan around Jeddah. Our call: Riyadh capacity stays at least 20% below early-October levels through end of October.
Trucking & Rail Oct 10, 2026 · 9 min read
US truck spot rates hit $3.13 a mile and Maersk sets a 20% UK inland fuel surcharge. The DAT van spot rate rose 11 cents to $3.13 a mile in the week to 3 October, according to TheTrucker.com. In Britain, Maersk lifts its inland emergency fuel surcharge for the UK and Ireland to 20% from 12 October, Marine Insight reports. Our view: the inland leg is now where landed-cost surprises come from. US diesel is over 70% above a year ago, Euronews reports. Van rates before fuel are up 34% on the year, and fuel costs are pushing small carriers out, DAT says. Our call: US van spot rates stay above $3 a mile through November.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Isaias closes Mobile and four other Gulf ports to shipping. The US Coast Guard closed Mobile, Pascagoula, Gulfport, Pensacola and Panama City to shipping at 2am on 9 October, according to the Waterways Journal. Hurricane Isaias then came ashore near Destin, Florida, as a 105 mph Category 2, according to AP. Our view: the closure will be short, but the knock-on effects will last longer. The storm is already down to 35 mph. Mobile’s container terminal, about 600,000 TEU (twenty-foot boxes) a year, should reopen fast. Bunched-up vessel calls, tight Southeast trucking and a barge network already missing three locks will take longer to clear. Our call: Mobile reopens to ships by Tuesday 13 October.
Geopolitics Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Drones sink ships off Romania and Bulgaria as Black Sea wheat loadings fall 78%. Black Sea wheat loadings fell to 1.6m tonnes in September, down 77.8% on a year earlier and the lowest September since 2017, according to AXSMarine data published by Ursa. On 5 and 6 October, drones sank two ships and set a third on fire in Romanian and Bulgarian waters. Our view: the western Black Sea is no longer the safe side of the sea. Security firm Ambrey says those waters “should no longer be treated as safe by default.” Danube barge freight to Constanța is already about $75 a tonne, up from $15–35. Our call: no deal to stop the attacks before year-end.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Panama Canal shrugs off a 7.7 quake and goes to 33 daily slots from 15 October. A magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit southern Panama at 12:56pm on Friday, about 200 km from Panama City. Ships kept moving and the canal said operations were unaffected, according to Splash247. Our view: the quake is a footnote. Water is the story. From 15 October the canal adds one slot for the biggest ships, taking the total to 33 a day, according to the Panama Canal Authority. That is still three short of the 36 a day before September’s cuts, according to Kuwait Times. Ships without bookings still risk “indefinite delays”. We expect 33 to hold through November, then tighten again in the dry season.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Manila truckers stop work over empty boxes as Hapag-Lloyd halts Philippine bookings. Only about 10% of volumes were leaving Manila’s ports, The Loadstar reported on 5 October, as brokers and truckers stopped work over thousands of empty containers carriers are not taking back. Hapag-Lloyd has suspended bookings to Manila, Batangas and Subic Bay through 31 December. Our view: this is a trade-imbalance problem, not a labour one. Manila’s main terminals shipped out 1.231 million TEU (twenty-foot units) against 1.37 million imported in January to July, according to customs data cited by Tradlinx. Expect tighter space, firmer rates and detention fights. Our call: another major carrier restricts Manila bookings or adds a congestion surcharge by end of November.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
German port strikes are off. The Rhine is still too low for full barges. Dockworkers’ union ver.di has accepted a 3.4% pay rise for about 11,000 workers at six German ports, including Hamburg and Bremerhaven. That ends the strike threat for now, though employers still have to approve the deal. We think the river is now the bigger problem. The Rhine gauge at Kaub read 8 cm on 10 October, according to federal waterways data. Barge operator Contargo now charges up to €1,280 per laden 40-foot box when Kaub is that low, and its barges averaged 56-hour waits at Rotterdam this week. Our call: low-water surcharges stay through mid-November.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 7 min read
HMM Platinum fire puts 2,300 boxes on course for general average. A container fire on the HMM Platinum, a 5,593 TEU ship (twenty-foot equivalent units), off southern Madagascar has about 2,300 boxes from Kattupalli to Santos heading for a South African port of refuge. According to Splash247, salvor SMIT is engaged and “a declaration of general average is considered likely”. Under general average, every cargo owner shares the cost of saving the voyage. Our view: uninsured shippers are exposed. In a 2017 fire on the same coast, uninsured cargo faced a cash deposit of 28% of invoice value, according to Norton Rose Fulbright. We expect a declaration by late October.
Trade & Customs Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Trade court opens an IEEPA refund route for importers that never sued. On 8 October the US Court of International Trade certified a nationwide class of importers that paid IEEPA tariffs (emergency tariffs the Supreme Court struck down in February) between 1 February 2025 and 19 February 2026 and never filed their own lawsuit. Without a class, the court estimates about $30 billion could stay with the government, according to Supply Chain Dive. In our view this matters more to small importers than Phase 3 of CAPE, the US customs refund system, which since 6 October covers old, closed entries only for importers that sued. But no class money moves yet. The government has until 23 November to appeal. We expect it to, and we expect no class payouts before mid-2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
CBP wants low-value entries filed by the day goods land. US Customs proposed on 8 October that informal entries, meaning shipments worth $2,500 or less, be filed electronically on or before arrival day instead of within 15 days. The rule covers about 70.1 million commercial and 32.7 million postal shipments a year, according to the Federal Register notice. Mail gets its own entry type. Both types need a bond. Our view: customs work for cheap parcels now has to happen at origin. CBP prices a brokered mail entry at $39.72, and 79% of mail parcels are worth $30 or less. We expect a final rule before de minimis legally ends on 1 July 2027.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
US decision due by 18 October on tariffs of up to 100% for big Russian oil buyers. A US law signed on 18 September gives President Trump until about 18 October to act on duties of up to 100% on all goods from the five biggest buyers of Russian crude or gas, according to Squire Patton Boggs. China and India top the likely list. The US imported $308.7 billion of Chinese goods and $103.8 billion of Indian goods in 2025. Our view: a full 100% duty this month is unlikely. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Trump “leaves every decision till the end.” We expect vessel sanctions first, and no across-the-board duty on China or India in force by 31 October.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
US fees on Chinese ships restart in 30 days unless USTR files a notice. The US pause on port fees for Chinese-operated and Chinese-built ships ends at 11:59pm ET on 9 November. Washington says the wider US–China truce now runs to 10 January, but as of 10 October no extension notice from USTR, the US trade office, is in the Federal Register. Our view: an extension is likely, but until it is published, the restart date stands. The fees are $50 per net ton (a measure of cargo space) for Chinese operators, according to FreightWaves. Alphaliner put the top 10 carriers’ 2026 bill at $3.2 billion. Put surcharge clauses in Q4 quotes now. We expect a notice in early November.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Adani’s Indian airports halt Russia cargo, leaving 150 tonnes stranded. Eight Indian airports run by Adani Group, including both Mumbai airports, have temporarily stopped handling Russia-related shipments, according to The Loadstar. About 150 tonnes of exports, mostly pharma, machinery and spares, were stuck over the past week. Adani has not said why. Our view: a private operator is enforcing US sanctions harder than India’s government does. Delhi, which Adani doesn’t run, still handles Aeroflot. Ships are no easier: carriers have stopped India–Novorossiysk bookings over drone attacks. We expect the curbs to last to year-end, and western India’s Russia air cargo to shift to Delhi or non-Russian airlines within six weeks.
Companies & Markets Oct 10, 2026 · 7 min read
C.H. Robinson agrees to buy RXO for $5.8bn, and its own shares fall 11%. US third-party logistics firm C.H. Robinson agreed on 5 October to buy rival RXO for an implied $5.8bn. RXO holders get $17.25 in cash plus 0.0856 C.H. Robinson shares each. C.H. Robinson’s stock fell 10.85% that day, according to FreightWaves. Our view: this is a bet that AI cuts costs faster than the truck market recovers. The company’s own investor deck says the deal does not depend on a freight recovery, and it targets $300m a year in savings. We expect rivals to chase RXO’s shippers, carriers and sales staff hard before the deal closes in the first half of 2027.
Companies & Markets Oct 10, 2026 · 7 min read
OOCL’s Q3 revenue jumps 45% as trans-Pacific takings rise 72%. OOCL’s liner revenue rose 45.1% year on year to $3.28bn in the third quarter, according to Container News. Trans-Pacific revenue rose 71.8% to $1.44bn on 13.1% more cargo. In our view this was price, not demand. OOCL moved slightly fewer boxes than in the second quarter, yet revenue rose about 29%. Part of the jump is also a rebound from a weak 2025. Carriers now head into 2027 contract talks flush with cash. Our call: Asia-Europe spot rates will be lower by the end of November than they are today, and trans-Pacific rates will hold up better.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Israel restarts its review of Hapag-Lloyd’s $4.2bn Zim deal. Israel has stopped reviewing Hapag-Lloyd’s $4.2bn bid for Zim. The deal now needs a new filing and a fresh review, according to FreightWaves. On 6 October, Zim raised the midpoint of its 2026 operating profit outlook by 72%. Our view: the late-2026 close is gone. Zim shares closed at $29.20 on 6 October against a $35 offer, so investors doubt it too. Israel’s finance ministry says the risks “significantly outweigh the benefits”. Until a deal closes, the two carriers must operate separately, so price 2027 contracts with them as two lines. We expect no Israeli approval before April 2027.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
CMA CGM closes $1.4bn FedEx Supply Chain deal, and CEVA splits into two units. CMA CGM closed its $1.4bn purchase of FedEx Supply Chain on 1 October, adding nearly 10,000 staff and 34 million sq ft of North American warehousing to CEVA Logistics. Five days later CEVA reorganised into two global units: freight management and contract logistics. Our view: the warehouses are the easy part. CEVA is still digesting earlier buys, including GEFCO and Bolloré Logistics. FedEx also becomes a preferred CMA CGM ocean customer. We expect CEVA to pitch bundled ocean-plus-US-warehouse deals into the spring 2027 transpacific contract round, and rivals to court nervous FedEx Supply Chain customers by then.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Samsung seeks $186m from CMA CGM, and the FMC threatens Cosco with up to $16.7m over a late $24,328 award. Samsung Electronics America wants at least $186m from CMA CGM, according to FreightWaves. Its complaint to the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), the US shipping regulator, says the carrier ran up about $148m in demurrage and detention (fees for containers kept too long) by failing to move boxes inland. CMA CGM wants the case dismissed. The same week, the FMC told Cosco it could face $3.3m to $16.7m in penalties for paying a $24,328 award 223 days late, according to The Loadstar. Our view: ignoring these rulings now costs carriers more than paying. We expect more big-shipper claims by end of Q1 2027.
Air Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Amazon launches two China–US air services, one with no FBA placement fee. Amazon Global Logistics has added two China–US air options for its sellers, according to Supply Chain Dive. Air SMP flies daily from Shanghai and Hong Kong to fulfilment centres in five US regions in 7–10 days, with no FBA inbound placement fee. Economy Air takes 11–15 days to Los Angeles, at a price below Amazon’s standard air. No rates were published. Our view: the fee waiver matters more than the flights. A forwarder can’t waive a fee Amazon charges. We expect FBA-focused forwarders on China–US air to cut rates to hold sellers by the end of Q1 2027.
Tech & AI Oct 10, 2026 · 7 min read
WiseTech plans to bill CargoWise AI agents outside the Value Pack price. WiseTech will charge for its CargoWise AI agents separately from its Value Pack fee, according to a 1 October Citi note reported by The Loadstar. Citi reckons more than $30m of the extra second-half revenue CargoWise needs to reach the low end of its guidance has to come from those agents and VerifyWise. Our view: the single-price pitch has a gap, and forwarders should close it in writing now. CEO Zubin Appoo says six agents sit inside Value Packs today but won’t say what comes next. We expect WiseTech to name its first paid agent by its half-year results early next year.
Tech & AI Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Freight Right follows Flexport in letting customers’ AI assistants book freight. On 7 October, Freight Right, a California forwarder serving more than 180 countries, opened quoting, tracking and booking to customers’ AI assistants. That came eight days after Flexport did the same on 29 September. Our view: the booking screen is moving from the forwarder’s portal into the customer’s chatbot. Freight Right still makes the customer confirm each booking. A Loadstar comment says Flexport’s terms put a wrong booking’s cost on whoever connected the agent. We expect at least one top-ten global forwarder to offer the same by end of March 2027.
Ocean Oct 10, 2026 · 7 min read
Freightmate acknowledges using Flexport documents as trade-secrets case settles. A California federal court approved a settlement on 8 October ending Flexport’s trade-secrets suit against freight-tech start-up Freightmate, 11 days before trial. Freightmate and its co-founders acknowledged using some of about 2,000 confidential Flexport shipping documents that a co-founder downloaded in May 2024, according to The Loadstar. Our view: Flexport won the principle and Freightmate kept its business. The agreed facts do not show the documents trained Freightmate’s AI. Anyone buying document AI should ask vendors where their test data came from. We expect that question to be standard in AI vendor contracts by mid-2027.
Tech & AI Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Driverless trucks get five years of federal cover as Texas lanes reach Laredo. On 7 October the US trucking regulator, FMCSA, gave driverless trucks a five-year exemption to use cab-mounted amber beacons instead of the warning triangles a driver sets out after a stop. It runs to October 2031, according to Automotive World. The next day Kodiak and Charger USA announced hauls on the 435-mile Dallas–Laredo lane, still with a safety driver aboard. Our view: the federal paperwork problem is largely solved. The limit now is trucks and safety sign-off. Our call: a truck with nobody in the cab will haul paying freight into Laredo on a regular schedule by mid-2027.