Tuesday, November 10, 2026
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Geopolitics Nov 10, 2026 · 8 min read

Hormuz talks stall as Iraq claims an oil-only lane

Tracker Red Sea and Hormuz: are ships going through? · 5.1 ships/day

Washington shuts the door on Iran’s terms and opens a side lane for Iraqi oil. Container lines stay out.

Iraq says it has found a way through the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday 8 November, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told Al Jazeera that Baghdad and Washington had agreed a way for Iraqi crude to pass through the strait on a lane near Oman, Marine Insight reported. He put the cost of the war to Iraq at $60bn. No terms have been published.

The same day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not see a deal with Iran coming soon. On Monday 9 November, President Trump met Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. He has been the main go-between for Washington and Tehran for most of the war, according to the Daily Caller.

Our view: these two stories belong together, and together they say one thing to forwarders. The United States is willing to let friendly oil out of the Gulf on its own terms. It is not close to a deal that would make the strait safe for scheduled container ships. A lane for Iraqi tankers is a political exception, not the start of a reopening. Plan Upper Gulf cargo on the basis that the land-bridge routings of the last eight months are still the routings in December.

The talks: far apart, in public

Iran’s offer, as reported by the Daily Caller, is a sequence. The US ends its naval blockade of Iranian ports, lifts some sanctions and stops bombing. Iran then reopens the strait. Talks on the nuclear programme and remaining sanctions come later.

Washington’s top diplomat rejected that in strong terms. Rubio said “it hasn’t been very productive”, and called Iran’s demands “outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic”, according to the Daily Caller. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, replied on Monday that the plan was the most reasonable proposal anyone had put forward.

Trump sounded softer on the military side. In a phone call with CNN on 8 November, he said new strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” if talks keep progressing. “It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” he said. But he also said the new land-focused enforcement effort, Operation Iron Gate, was in effect: “That means nothing comes in by land, and as you know with the naval blockade, nothing comes in by water.”

The administration itself looks split. Just Security’s 9 November round-up, citing the Wall Street Journal, says Vice President JD Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff favour diplomacy to end the war and reopen the strait. Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favour tighter sanctions and a continued blockade. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command (CENTCOM), favour resuming major combat. A divided White House can still sign a deal. But it makes a quick one less likely.

Our read: when one side calls the other’s terms “outrageous” in public and the other calls its own plan the most reasonable on the table, a deal is weeks away at best. US and Gulf officials told Reuters they do not think an agreement is close, the Daily Caller reported.

The water: still the most dangerous stretch in shipping

Diplomacy is not changing conditions at sea. Traffic through Hormuz is about 20% of prewar levels, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data cited by The National. The IMF’s PortWatch data, shown on the straits.live tracker, counted one vessel crossing on 1 November against a typical 85 a day. PortWatch only counts ships broadcasting on AIS, the automatic position signal ships transmit. Many ships in the strait switch it off, so the true figure is likely higher. Either way, the strait is nearly empty.

The past week was violent. UKMTO (UK Maritime Trade Operations), the Royal Navy’s maritime security office, confirmed eight attacks in the strait and three in the Arabian Gulf over the past week, The National reported. Three vessels sank and five more had to be rescued. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) navy said three tankers burned on 8 November after using “unauthorised routes”. Few IRGC mine claims have been independently confirmed. The Institute for the Study of War said the claims likely aim to raise shipping companies’ sense of risk.

The JMIC, a naval information centre that advises merchant ships in the region, kept the Hormuz threat level at “severe” in its Update 112 on 8 November, according to Palaemon Maritime’s weekly report. It counted about 162 vessels at anchor off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, on the Gulf of Oman side. Its warning was blunt: “Mariners are advised to remain vigilant for attempted mining within and adjacent to the TSS.” The TSS is the traffic separation scheme, the marked two-way shipping lanes through the strait.

Palaemon logged seven incidents in Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Gulf in the week to 9 November. Five involved tankers. One was a US strike that disabled a St Kitts-flagged bulk carrier in the Gulf of Oman during blockade enforcement. The JMIC counts 177 confirmed incidents in the Middle East since 1 March.

The US is adding force, not taking it away. A third aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is expected in the region this week, The National reported. CENTCOM’s Adm Cooper said the new land-focused task force would “reinforce the success of our ironclad blockade against Iran at sea”. The US says the blockade has cut Iran’s oil export revenue by more than $25bn.

The Iraqi lane, and what happened last time

Iraq has the most to gain from any exception. Most of its crude leaves from southern terminals near Basra, and the only way out is through Hormuz. A June analysis by Vortexa, published by Breakwave Advisors, said: “Iraq’s dependence on the Strait as its outlet for Basrah crude exports from the southern ports left it uniquely exposed.” Production fell from 4.1 million barrels a day (bpd) in January and February to a 10-year low of 1.5 million bpd in April, that analysis said, citing OPEC figures. Seaborne exports hit 260,000 bpd in May.

Iraqi energy officials now say October exports recovered to about 3.5 million bpd, up from 2.65 million bpd in September, per Marine Insight. So oil has been getting out, on some terms, for weeks. The new “understanding” looks like a way to formalise that.

This is also not the first time Baghdad has announced a deal. On 14 April, oil ministry spokesman Saheb Bazoun told the Iraqi News Agency there were “understandings with the American and Iranian sides to circumvent the blockade”, Asharq Al-Awsat reported. That was seven months ago. The strait is still shut to almost everyone else.

The new understanding comes with a price. Hussein said the US Treasury wants Iraq to close every border crossing with Iran except two. He called that difficult and harmful to Iraq’s economy, and said talks continue, according to Marine Insight. Iraq closed the Sheeb crossing last month for a security review and to fit anti-smuggling equipment.

Our view: the deal shows how Washington plans to manage the strait for now. It will grant lanes to friends, case by case, for the cargo it cares about most, which is crude. In return, it will tighten the land routes into Iran. That is Operation Iron Gate in practice. None of this helps a container line build a weekly schedule.

What this means for forwarders

First, the Upper Gulf stays a land-bridge market. Carriers have been sending Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE cargo via Gulf of Oman ports such as Khor Fakkan, Fujairah and Sohar, or via Jeddah on the Red Sea. From there it goes on by truck, feeder ship or both. A Tradlinx summary of carrier advisories, dated 30 July, set out those routings for Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM. Nothing in this week’s news suggests they change soon. Keep quoting them, and keep the extra transit time in your customers’ plans.

Second, Gulf of Oman congestion is not going away. About 162 ships were already waiting off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan on 8 November. The JMIC also warns that ships sitting still for long periods in the Arabian Gulf may face a higher risk of being targeted. Expect long berth waits and yard pressure at the diversion ports to continue.

Third, cargo into Iraq by land gets harder. If Iraq closes all but two crossings with Iran, overland trade through Iran into Iraq will squeeze through fewer gates. Customers who rely on that route should look at routings via the UAE, Saudi Arabia or Jordan now, before the change lands.

Fourth, do not read a tanker lane as a box lane. A lane near Oman for Iraqi crude does not give container ships insurance cover or a safe passage. War-risk cover is the extra insurance premium ships pay for war zones. Carriers will not schedule calls inside the Gulf while the JMIC rates the strait “severe” and mines are a live threat.

Fifth, watch the right signals. A real reopening would show up as a signed US–Iran deal, a lower JMIC threat level and carriers announcing direct calls again. One lane for one country’s oil is none of those.

Our call

Our prediction: no major carrier restores a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026. We also expect Gulf war-risk and emergency surcharges from the big carriers to stay in place through December. And we expect CENTCOM to report at least one more non-tanker merchant ship disabled by the end of December. The Iraqi lane and Rubio’s rejection of Iran’s terms both point the same way. The strait is being managed, not reopened.

Sources

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