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Ocean Nov 7, 2026 · 8 min read

US presses Beijing as 9 November tariff dates near

Last US–China call before Monday’s deadline leaves 178 tariff exclusions hanging

On Friday 6 November, three days before two US–China trade deadlines, the two sides’ top economic officials spoke by video. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng.

The deadlines fall on Monday 9 November. The first is when 178 exclusions from Section 301 tariffs end. Section 301 is the US trade law behind the extra duties on many Chinese goods. The second is when the US pause on port fees for Chinese-linked ships runs out.

Neither USTR’s readout nor Treasury’s statement on Friday’s call mentions either deadline. As of Friday, USTR’s press-release page listed no final notice extending either one.

What we think the call means

Our view: this was a call to check China’s progress on its promises, not to agree anything new. Washington wants to see Chinese purchases and mineral supplies first. Relief on tariffs and ship fees is what it can give or hold back in return.

For a forwarder, that has one practical meaning. Do not assume the exclusions will be renewed before Monday night. Plan for full duty on affected goods from 10 November. Treat any extension as money you might get back later, not money you will never pay.

What each side said

USTR’s readout is short. Greer stressed “the critical importance of China taking concrete actions to fully implement its past commitments.” It names agricultural purchases, rare earths and other critical minerals as the main areas. USTR adds that the US will keep pursuing balanced trade with China by monitoring whether China is complying.

Treasury’s tone was similar. According to Al Jazeera, which carried a Reuters report, Treasury said “Secretary Bessent emphasised the importance of China fully and immediately implementing its commitments made in Busan.” “Busan” is shorthand for the US–China trade truce agreed by Presidents Trump and Xi. Treasury also said “continued progress depends on concrete results.”

Beijing set its own condition a day earlier. On Thursday, commerce ministry spokesperson Huang Ling said China has “consistently been open to expanding purchases of agricultural products from the US.” But Huang said this would happen “only on the condition that the two sides implement their agreed ‘30 billion for 30 billion’ reciprocal” tariff-cut arrangement, according to Al Jazeera.

The same report gives the numbers behind that phrase. After a Trump–Xi meeting in September, the White House proposed $60bn in tariff cuts. That figure included $17bn worth of US farm goods. In May, the White House said Beijing had agreed to buy $17bn of US agricultural goods a year from 2026. This year’s target is to be adjusted pro rata.

So each side wants the other to move first. Neither readout mentions ship fees or the exclusions. In our view, neither looks likely to be settled in a weekend.

The two deadlines, in plain terms

The 178 exclusions. An exclusion lets an importer bring in a listed product without paying the Section 301 duty. According to Great Lakes Customs Law, 164 of the current 178 cover specific products and 14 cover solar manufacturing equipment. They apply to goods entered for consumption before 11:59pm ET on 9 November. (“Entered for consumption” means formally cleared into the US market.) Once they lapse, the normal duty returns on its own: 25% on Lists 1–3 and 7.5% on List 4A, per the same source. The trade law firm STR’s week-ahead note for the coming week lists it simply: “Nov. 9 – expiration of exclusions from China Section 301 tariffs.”

The ship-fee pause. USTR first collected its port fees on Chinese-operated and Chinese-built ships on 14 October 2025. It suspended them on 10 November 2025, according to gCaptain. The pause is set to expire at 11:59pm ET on 9 November 2026, according to the law firm Holland & Knight. In a notice published on 26 October, USTR proposed extending it “through 11:59 p.m. ET on January 9, 2027.” It said the aim was “to allow for further negotiation with China.” Comments closed on 30 October under docket USTR-2026-0694. gCaptain reported that the extension had not been finalised. It also said the notice does not say whether China will extend its own pause on its matching fees.

If the pause lapses, the trade platform Tradlinx reads USTR’s schedule as returning fees of $80 per net ton on ships run or owned by Chinese companies. For Chinese-built ships run by others, it reads the fee as $23 per net ton or $153 per container discharged, whichever is higher. (Net tonnage is a measure of a ship’s cargo space, not its weight.) Tradlinx notes that USTR’s notice does not confirm exactly how the fees would restart. It also points out: “The cargo owner is not directly assessed the regulatory fee.” Any cost to shippers would come through carrier surcharges and contract terms.

What happened last time

There is a recent example. The same 178 exclusions were due to end on 29 November 2025. The extension to 10 November 2026 was tied to what a USTR spokesperson, quoted by Global Trade magazine, called a “historic trade and economic deal” between Trump and Xi in early November 2025. Trade outlets including STR and Global Trade reported the extension on 2 December 2025.

The lesson, in our view, is that these exclusions get renewed as part of a wider US–China deal, often close to the deadline. This year the wider deal is less settled. The US says China has not done enough on farm goods and minerals. China says it will buy more only when the tariff cuts are done. A late extension, or a lapse followed by a backdated fix, now looks more likely than a clean renewal before Monday.

The ship-fee track does give some comfort. USTR has already proposed a two-month extension in writing. That suggests the administration wants these levers on a short leash, not gone. A short extension of the exclusions to the same January date would fit that pattern.

What forwarders and shippers should do now

Find the exposed entries. Work out which of your clients’ China-origin goods use one of the 178 exclusions. Look for cargo that will clear on or after 10 November: ships still at sea, boxes on the dock, goods in a bonded warehouse. Those entries carry the risk.

Price the gap. On a $100,000 entry under Lists 1–3, losing the exclusion means $25,000 in extra duty, at 25%. Under List 4A it means $7,500, at 7.5%. Give clients the figure now, not after the entry has been filed.

Watch the bond. A customs bond is the guarantee that duties will be paid. Higher duty bills can push an importer close to its bond limit. Check limits before a run of entries at full duty.

Keep the paper trail. If an extension arrives later and is backdated, importers will need to claim refunds on the entries in the gap. Clean records of entry dates and classification will make that faster.

Ask carriers about ship fees. If the ship-fee pause lapses, carriers using Chinese-built or Chinese-run ships may bring back surcharges on US calls. Ask now what your contracts allow them to pass on.

Do not rush cargo for Monday. Ocean freight already at sea cannot be sped up. Air freight could beat the cutoff, but in our view the cost of flying it will be more than the duty saved.

What to watch next week

Three things will tell us which way this goes.

First, the Federal Register, where US rules are officially published. A final ship-fee notice could appear there on Monday or soon after. If it shows up and no exclusions notice comes with it, that would suggest Washington is treating the two issues separately.

Second, Chinese buying. The US has tied its tone to farm purchases and mineral supplies. News of large soybean or grain orders, or eased rare-earth export licences, would make a deal on tariffs more likely.

Third, Beijing’s own ship fees. China paused its matching port fees on US-linked ships on the same one-year timetable, according to Tradlinx. If Beijing extends its pause, that is a sign both sides want to keep the truce going. If it stays silent, carriers serving both countries face two sets of fees at once.

None of these will settle the gap for cargo clearing on Tuesday. They will show how long that gap lasts.

Our prediction

Friday’s call does not change our view. It confirms that relief, if it comes, will come late. We expect USTR to extend most or all of the 178 exclusions to around 10 January 2027. That is in line with the truce and the proposed ship-fee pause. We expect the notice to be published by mid-December 2026 and backdated to 10 November. That means some importers will pay full Section 301 duty on goods entered in the gap and will need refunds. If no notice has appeared by 15 December, we will treat the exclusions as gone for good.

Sources

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