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Trade & Customs Nov 2, 2026 · 7 min read

Vietnam’s IP tariff probe: Tesla and Samsung push back before 29 November

Vietnam’s 29 November tariff deadline: a finding is coming, a new duty probably is not

The US has 28 days left to decide whether to punish Vietnam over intellectual property. The Trump administration set 29 November as the deadline to wrap up its probe, Reuters reported on 1 November. The probe runs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. That law lets the US put tariffs on a country it finds is treating American business unfairly. It is the same tool used for the tariffs on Chinese goods since 2018.

Two big names have now taken sides. Tesla and Samsung’s US unit both told the US Trade Representative (USTR, the agency that runs trade cases) not to add new tariffs. The question for anyone moving boxes out of Haiphong or Ho Chi Minh City is simple. Does a new duty land on top of the 12.5% Vietnamese goods already pay?

Our view: probably not by the deadline. We expect USTR to find against Vietnam, because the case was built to do that. But we expect it to use the finding as leverage for a deal, not to start collecting a new tariff straight away.

What has happened so far

Vietnam has been named a “priority foreign country”, Reuters reported. That is the most serious category on the annual US list of countries with weak IP protection. Reuters says Vietnam is the first jurisdiction in 13 years to be put in that category. The probe was launched in May. The US government accused Vietnam of “a persistent failure to resolve long-standing concerns about IP protection and enforcement.”

Written comments followed. Tech Insider says written comments were due on 2 July. Reuters says Tesla sent its comments on that date.

USTR has not said which products, if any, it would target. Reuters put it plainly: “It is not clear if any tariffs linked to IP violations would be general or sector specific.”

Vietnam has urged Washington to conduct its investigations objectively, according to Reuters.

Who wants tariffs and who does not

The comments split along a familiar line. Companies that make things in Vietnam want no new costs. US producers that compete with Vietnamese imports want protection.

Against new tariffs: - Tesla urged USTR to “take into account the supply chain needs of American manufacturers”, Reuters reported. Tesla also argued that some advanced components and precision manufacturing equipment cannot be sourced in the US, Reuters and Tech Insider report. - Samsung’s US unit made a similar argument, noting Vietnam produces a significant share of Samsung’s smartphones and network equipment for the US market, Reuters said. Samsung has invested about $25 billion in Vietnam, more than any other foreign investor. - Retail groups and trade associations with large operations in Vietnam, including footwear, apparel, bikes and video game consoles, also opposed new duties.

For tariffs: - Industry groups for US producers of steel, seafood, plywood, solar panels and wood products accused Vietnam of unfair practices. - Copyright groups pressed the IP case itself. The Business Software Alliance, whose members include Microsoft, Oracle and IBM, complained of “inadequate enforcement”. It said about three-quarters of software on personal computers in Vietnam was unlicensed. That figure comes from a 2017 survey, Reuters notes, so it is old. - The Motion Picture Association said pirate film and TV sites hosted in Vietnam attracted over 12.5 billion visits worldwide last year. That is the group’s own figure.

Notice the mismatch. The probe is about software, films and music. Many of the groups asking for tariffs make steel, plywood and solar panels. In our view, that shows Section 301 here is about the trade balance as much as about piracy.

Why the trade numbers matter more than the piracy numbers

Vietnam’s exports to the US rose 42% in the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025, Reuters reported. That made Vietnam the US trading partner with the largest goods surplus, ahead of China and Mexico. At the end of 2025 it was fourth.

This is the “China+1” story in one line. China+1 means brands keep some production in China but add a second country to spread risk. In our view, Vietnam has been one of the main second countries, especially for electronics, footwear and apparel. The surge has made it a target.

Vietnam is not starting from zero. Its goods already face a general 12.5% US tariff, imposed in July after a separate forced-labour probe, Reuters reported. Before that, Vietnam faced 20% tariffs after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement. Those were struck down by the Supreme Court. In our view, that makes Section 301 one of the main routes left for Washington to raise the rate. Reuters notes a separate US probe into alleged excess capacity is also under way. That cuts both ways. It makes action more tempting. It also makes the threat worth more if it is held back and traded for concessions.

What happened last time

This is not the first Section 301 fight with Vietnam. In October 2020 USTR opened two probes, one into Vietnam’s currency and one into illegal timber.

On currency, USTR published its finding on 15 January 2021. It said Vietnam’s currency practices “are unreasonable and burden or restrict U.S. commerce.” But it “has declined to take such action at this time,” according to a summary by the law firm Steptoe. No tariff followed.

On timber, USTR announced an agreement with Vietnam on 1 October 2021. It said the deal was a satisfactory resolution and that no trade action was warranted at that time. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai said: “I commend Vietnam for its commitment to address our concerns regarding the importation and use of timber.” USTR said it would monitor how Vietnam carried out the deal.

Two probes, two findings or deals, zero new tariffs. That is the pattern we expect to repeat. Hanoi has every reason to offer IP enforcement steps quickly. Washington gets a win it can point to, and keeps the threat on the table.

The risk to our view is that this administration is not the 2021 one. It has shown it will use tariffs as a first move, not a last one. Reuters reports many economists think the aim is to restore at least the tariff level the Supreme Court struck down. If USTR goes ahead, Reuters says nobody yet knows whether it would be a general rate or aimed at sectors. A sector tariff on electronics would hit Tesla and Samsung directly. A general one would hit everyone.

What forwarders and shippers should do now

The decision lands at the start of the busiest stretch for Vietnam exports. Factories push to ship before the Lunar New Year shutdown, and January bookings fill up early. A surprise tariff in early December would land on cargo already at sea.

Practical steps: - Put tariff clauses in quotes. Any quote for US-bound Vietnam cargo valid past 29 November should say who pays if a new duty is added. Customs duty normally depends on the date goods enter the US, not the date they leave port. - Map exposure by product. Ask shippers for their main US tariff codes (HTS codes, the numbers that set the duty rate). Electronics, footwear, apparel, furniture and wood products are the lanes with most to lose. - Watch for a comment period. If USTR proposes action, Section 301 cases normally publish a proposed list and invite comments before tariffs take effect. That gap gives time to plan. A tariff with no proposal stage would be the warning sign. - Do not cancel bookings on rumour. Shifting origin away from Vietnam takes months. On the history and the lobbying, the chance of an immediate new duty is low. - Expect a pull-forward if a proposal appears. If USTR names products and a start date, shippers will try to land goods before it. That would tighten space and lift spot rates out of Haiphong and Ho Chi Minh City for a few weeks.

Our call

By 29 November, we expect USTR to find that Vietnam’s IP practices are actionable under Section 301. We expect it to pair that with talks or a proposed action and comment period, not an immediate tariff. The measure to watch is the general US tariff on Vietnamese goods. Our call: it is still 12.5% on 31 January 2027, with no extra Section 301 duty being collected on Vietnamese goods by that date.

If we are wrong, it will be because the White House wants a headline on the trade deficit more than an IP deal. In that case, look first at wood products, where US producers have asked for tariffs, and electronics, where Tesla and Samsung are most exposed.

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