Monday, November 2, 2026
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Ocean Nov 2, 2026 · 8 min read

178 China tariff exclusions run out on 9 November

178 China tariff exclusions expire on 9 November, and an extension may come too late to help

At 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Monday 9 November, the last 178 product exclusions from the US Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods expire. Section 301 is the trade law the US used in 2018 and 2019 to put tariffs on Chinese imports. An exclusion takes a specific product out of those tariffs. Without a new notice from the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), any of these goods entered from 10 November pay the full rate for their list: 25% for Lists 1, 2 and 3, and 7.5% for List 4A.

Our view: USTR will probably extend these exclusions in the end. The broader US-China truce and the port-fee pause are both heading towards January, and the exclusions would likely follow. But nothing is on paper, and last year the formal notice was published after the deadline. Forwarders and brokers should plan for 10 November as if the exclusions are gone. They should also keep the paperwork ready to claw the money back if a backdated notice arrives.

What expires, and what it costs

The 178 exclusions sit under two tariff headings that importers declare on entry. 9903.88.69 covers 164 exclusions, and 9903.88.70 covers 14 for solar manufacturing equipment. That split comes from Gateway Lines and Peacock Tariff Consulting. USTR’s 1 December 2025 Federal Register notice sets the end date as “11:59 p.m. eastern daylight time on November 9, 2026.”

The notice describes products, not just tariff codes. So a matching code alone does not make a product excluded. Gateway Lines puts it this way: “Exclusions are written as product descriptions, so a matching HTS code alone doesn’t prove a product is covered.”

The cost is easy to work out. Gateway Lines gives an example: an excluded List 3 product on a $100,000 entry would pay another 25%, or $25,000, if the exclusion lapses. On a List 4A product the extra is 7.5%, or $7,500. Peacock Tariff Consulting scales it up: $20 million of covered imports a year means $5 million in extra cost. It also says plainly: “There is no phase in, no grace period and no transitional rate.”

The underlying lists are large, even if the exclusions are not. Gateway Lines says List 1, from July 2018, put 25% on 818 tariff subheadings worth about $34 billion a year. List 2, from August 2018, put 25% on 279 subheadings worth about $16 billion. In May 2024 USTR kept 164 of 429 earlier exclusions, and in September 2024 it added 14 for solar manufacturing equipment. Those are the 178.

These are not small tariffs in the overall picture. GingerControl, citing US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) trade statistics, says CBP collected $35.6 billion in Section 301 duties on Chinese products in fiscal 2025. That was out of $216.7 billion in total duties, taxes and fees.

The record says lapse

As of the most recent public trackers, no extension had been published. ICPA’s Section 301 tracker, last updated 26 October, said no notice extending the exclusions had been published. It added that there is no rolling renewal and no successor process. Peacock Tariff Consulting wrote on 28 October that “nothing in the public record suggests the Office of the United States Trade Representative intends to renew them.”

Peacock also points to a process signal. In the last cycle, USTR opened a comment docket in September 2025, a couple of months before the deadline. A comment docket is a public request for views before a decision. Peacock says “No comparable comment docket has been opened” this time. It reports that trade counsel called that gap “itself informative” and told clients to plan for the tariffs to return.

Look at what USTR did do in late October. On 26 October it published a proposal to extend the pause on port fees for China-linked ships to 9 January 2027. Comments closed on 30 October. Peacock notes that this notice “addressed the maritime action and only the maritime action.” The 178 product exclusions were not in it.

The politics say extend

Against that, the diplomacy points towards another extension. In September Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US-China truce now runs to 10 January 2027. But FreightFigures points out the limits: “A verbal extension of a diplomatic truce does not move either date.” It adds: “Each one expires on the terms of its own Federal Register notice, and each needs a new USTR notice to change.”

The history also favours extension, just not on time. Over the past two years USTR has kept rolling these exclusions forward in short steps. According to the December 2025 Federal Register notice, it extended 164 exclusions through May 2025. It then extended the 178 through August 2025, and then for 90 days to 29 November 2025. After the 1 November 2025 trade deal between Presidents Trump and Xi, it extended them again to November 2026. USTR’s 26 November 2025 press release said the extension “follows the historic trade and economic deal reached between President Trump and President Xi Jinping.”

The timing of that last step matters most. USTR announced it on 26 November, but Gateway Lines notes that the December 2025 notice was not published until 1 December, after the 29 November deadline had passed. It then applied back to 30 November.

The December 2025 notice also left the door open: “The U.S. Trade Representative may continue to consider further extensions and/or additional modifications as appropriate.”

Our reading: USTR is treating the port fees and the exclusions as separate files. The port-fee pause protects carriers and US ports, and it got an early proposal. The exclusions protect a narrower set of importers and are a bargaining chip with Beijing. They have usually been decided late. We think that pattern repeats.

What it means for forwarders this week

Cargo leaving China now will not reach the US before 10 November. Any container on the water today with excluded goods should be costed at the full rate. Here is what we would do.

Flag the entries. Brokers should pull every open shipment that declares 9903.88.69 or 9903.88.70. They should tell the importer the possible extra duty in dollars, not percentages.

Check timing for goods already landed. For cargo sitting in a bonded warehouse or at the port, it may still be possible to enter it for consumption before 11:59 p.m. Eastern on 9 November. The exclusion applies to goods entered, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, by that time. That is a decision for the importer and their broker, and it needs to be made this week.

Check bond room and duty cash. A customs bond is the guarantee that duties will be paid. A sudden 25% increase on high-value entries can push an importer close to its bond limit. Better to raise it now than to have cargo held later.

Keep records for refunds. If USTR publishes a backdated extension, as it did last year, duty paid at the full rate on excluded goods could be recoverable. Entries not yet finalised can usually be corrected before CBP closes them out. Accurate exclusion codes and product descriptions will make that much faster. CBP has already shown it will fix exclusion data after the fact. On 22 October it issued CSMS message 70261629, updating statistical numbers for five exclusions. C.H. Robinson says importers “should review entries filed on or after July 1, 2026, that may qualify for these exclusions.”

Watch the port-fee date separately. The same 9 November deadline applies to the port-fee pause on China-linked ships. If USTR finalises its proposal, that pause runs to 9 January 2027. Do not assume one decision tells you the other.

Who is most exposed

The clearest single group is the 14 solar manufacturing equipment lines. In our view, importers of specialised equipment and parts like these often have few non-Chinese suppliers in the short term. Peacock calls the exclusions “a transitional bridge to non China sourcing.” Many importers have been crossing that bridge slowly.

For lanes, we do not expect a visible spike in transpacific volumes. The number of products is small, and with eight days left it is too late to speed up new orders from China. The pressure falls instead on air freight for urgent parts, on warehouse withdrawals in the first week of November, and on brokers’ workload around 9 and 10 November.

Our call

We expect USTR to extend most or all of the 178 exclusions to around 10 January 2027, in line with the truce and the proposed port-fee pause. We expect the notice to be published by mid-December 2026 and backdated to 10 November. That means some importers will pay full Section 301 duty on goods entered in the gap and will need refunds.

If no notice has appeared by 15 December, we will treat the exclusions as gone for good. In that case, the next date to watch is 10 January 2027, when the wider truce is due to run out.

Sources