Thursday, October 22, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Oct 22, 2026 · 7 min read

November capacity cuts and the Med FAK push

Carriers cut 10% of November space to rescue Asia–Europe rates. Blank sailings (cancelled voyages) will remove about 10% of Asia–Europe capacity through November, Zencargo said on 20 October. CMA CGM wants $4,900 per 40ft container from Asia to the West Med for 1–14 November. Freightos put that lane at $3,927 on 21 October. Our view: the cut buys carriers time, not a price. Demand is flat. Freightos says some forwarders doubt the increases will stick. Don’t sign November Med cargo at the FAK level without testing the spot market first. Our prediction: by Drewry’s 19 November reading, Shanghai–Rotterdam will be below $3,522 and Shanghai–Genoa below $4,500.

November’s 10% capacity cut is the carriers’ last lever on Asia–Europe. We don’t think it lifts the Med to $4,900

Carriers plan to take about a tenth of Asia–Europe capacity out of the market in November. Zencargo’s market update of 20 October puts it plainly: “To manage supply, blank sailings are expected to reduce overall market capacity by approximately 10% throughout November.” A blank sailing is a scheduled voyage the carrier cancels.

That cut is meant to support a fresh set of prices. CMA CGM has published FAK rates from all main Asian ports to the Mediterranean and North Africa, valid from 1 to 14 November. A FAK, or freight all kinds rate, is a carrier’s standard price per container regardless of the cargo inside. The 40ft rates are $4,900 to the West Med, $5,000 to the Adriatic, $5,200 to the East Med and Black Sea, and $7,100 to North Africa.

Our view: the cancellations will slow the decline in rates, and they may hold up the market for a week or two. They won’t get spot rates anywhere near $4,900. Demand is flat, more capacity arrives later in November, and the gap between asking price and market price is too big.

What carriers are asking for

The CMA CGM notice is dated 16 October. Per 20ft and 40ft container, it sets:

  • West Med: $3,900 / $4,900
  • Adriatic: $4,000 / $5,000
  • East Med and Black Sea: $4,200 / $5,200
  • North Africa: $5,300 / $7,100

The notice says the rates include basic freight, bunker surcharges, ETS (the EU Emissions Trading System charge) and LSS (low-sulphur surcharge). Terminal handling at both ends is extra. So are safety and security surcharges and local charges. The rates cover dry, reefer, out-of-gauge and paying empty containers.

This is the second step in a month. For 19 October, The Loadstar reported on 16 October that CMA CGM sought $4,700 per 40ft to the Mediterranean and $4,600 to North Europe. Hapag-Lloyd asked for $4,600 to the Med and $4,200 to North Europe, and MSC for $4,500 to both. The 1 November West Med rate is $200 above CMA CGM’s 19 October Med level.

Carriers are also adding cost through surcharges. Zencargo says emergency bunker surcharges (EBS, extra fuel charges added on top of the base rate) rose on some Asia–Europe services in October. It expects other carriers to raise them further in November.

Where the market actually is

The spot market sits well below these numbers.

Freightos’s weekly update, published 21 October, puts Asia–Mediterranean (its FBX13 index) at $3,927 per FEU, up 3% on the week. FEU means a forty-foot equivalent unit, a standard 40ft container. Asia–North Europe (FBX11) rose 6% to $3,442.

Drewry’s World Container Index for 15 October had Shanghai–Genoa at $3,945 per 40ft, up 7%. Shanghai–Rotterdam was $3,522, up 6%. The composite index across eight major lanes was $4,485, up 3%. Drewry said: “Hence, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week.”

So CMA CGM’s West Med ask is about $970 above Freightos and about $955 above Drewry. That is a 25% jump to land in two weeks, in a market that has only just stopped falling.

Zencargo describes the mid-October move modestly: “FAK rates are currently seeing a slight mid-month increase compared to early October.”

Forwarders on the ground are cautious. Freightos writes: “Some forwarders are skeptical however, that increases will stick given current market conditions.” Freightos also links the recent increases to tender season. It says they follow GRIs “aimed at putting pressure on rates as 2027 long term contract negotiations get underway.” A GRI is a general rate increase.

The Loadstar’s 16 October report quoted a European forwarder saying FAK increases planned for the second half of October were pushed back to 19 October and then revised down, with “downward revisions for those, almost back to the levels we saw in the first half of October.” The same forwarder said: “We’re not seeing any noticeable increase in demand – it’s all still a bit flat in that respect.”

Why a 10% cut may not be enough

On paper, taking 10% of supply out should lift prices. Three things work against it.

First, demand. Nothing in the Zencargo, Freightos or Loadstar reports points to a rise in Asia–Europe volumes. The forwarder quoted above calls it flat.

Second, new capacity. Zencargo notes: “A new Gemini Asia–Med service (SE5/AE18) starts 21 Nov.” Gemini is the Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd network. Zencargo says the service adds about 5% to weekly Med capacity. That lands in the second half of November, just after CMA CGM’s FAK window closes on the 14th.

Third, the Red Sea. Zencargo reports that MSC is moving ships back through Suez, and that Suez-to-Cape diversions are down to 180 ships, the lowest since January 2024. Shorter routes free up ships, which adds effective capacity. Freightos cites estimates that Red Sea transits will fully recover in the first quarter of 2027, and warns that “the Red Sea return – if geopolitics allow its completion – increases the overcapacity risk for carriers in 2027.”

Last year shows the other side, and it is worth being fair about it. In November 2025, carriers did push Asia–Europe up. Drewry’s index for 20 November 2025 recorded that “The Asia-Europe trade route recorded its sixth straight week of increasing spot rates.” Shanghai–Genoa was $2,319 and Shanghai–Rotterdam $2,193 that week. But those increases started from a far lower base. Today’s Shanghai–Genoa reading is about 70% higher. In the same report, Drewry warned that “Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken in the next few quarters”, especially if Suez transits returned. That return is now happening.

Our read: last year carriers were pushing up from rock-bottom rates. This year they are trying to hold a high level while more ships come back into service. That is a harder task.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Space will be tight even if rates aren’t high. Blank sailings mean fewer departures, and cargo from a cancelled voyage gets rolled onto the next one. Zencargo says MSC is managing its cargo mix, and CMA CGM, HMM and Yang Ming are holding back full allocations on named-account and long-term contracts. The Loadstar reported that MSC’s Britannia service from Asia to North Europe will be blanked in weeks 45 and 46, which runs from 2 to 15 November. Book early November cargo now and have a second carrier lined up.

Treat FAKs as an opening position. Compare the CMA CGM number with the FBX13 or Drewry Genoa reading before you confirm a rate. A gap close to $1,000 leaves plenty of room to negotiate.

Check surcharge lines. If EBS goes up again in November, as Zencargo expects, the all-in cost can rise even when the base rate falls. CMA CGM’s FAKs include bunker charges, so an EBS line on top of a FAK quote needs questioning.

Watch transit times, not only price. Zencargo reports frequent vessel changes and delays caused by Asian port congestion and void sailings.

Use the data in tenders. The 1 November FAKs come out as 2027 contract talks begin. Shippers with spot benchmarks in hand can push back on contract offers built on FAK levels.

Elsewhere on the water

The transpacific is steady. Freightos had Asia–US West Coast flat at $8,126 per FEU and Asia–US East Coast up 1% to $9,700. Zencargo says second-half October FAKs were extended at first-half levels. On that lane, it warns: “Space remains very limited, and shippers are strongly recommended to book three to four weeks in advance.”

The transatlantic is creeping up. Freightos says: “So far though transatlantic spot rates have increased only about $200/FEU to $2,850/FEU since the end of September.” That is about 25% above a year ago. Zencargo puts westbound cancellations at 6% to 9% and schedule reliability at 73.2%. It advises a 7 to 10 day buffer for US East Coast arrivals.

Our call

These are our predictions, not facts.

The Asia–Europe rise does not hold. By Drewry’s week-47 reading, published around 19 November, we expect Shanghai–Rotterdam to be back below $3,522. We expect the $4,500-plus FAK levels from 19 October to have failed to stick. On the Med, we expect Shanghai–Genoa to be below $4,500 in that same reading, well short of CMA CGM’s $4,900 West Med FAK.

We also expect at least one more round of carrier FAK announcements for 1 December, timed to tender season. It will meet the same resistance.

On the transpacific, we expect Shanghai–Los Angeles to stay between $7,000 and $8,500 per 40ft through the end of November. We don’t expect a GRI that sticks before December. The composite WCI should drift lower over the same period, dragged down by Europe. We expect it to be below $4,485 by late November.

Sources