Thursday, November 5, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Nov 5, 2026 · 7 min read

November GRIs fail on both main lanes; Maersk turns to a Med surcharge

Tracker Carrier surcharges and GRIs this month · 4,429 $/FEU

Carriers stop chasing GRIs and start billing surcharges lane by lane

Maersk on 4 November filed a $1,500-per-40ft peak season surcharge on cargo from Far East Asia to the Mediterranean. It applies from a price calculation date of 23 November. The 20ft charge is $750. It covers every equipment type, from dry boxes to reefers, flat racks and tanks. It lands days after the carriers’ 1 November general rate increase on Asia–Europe failed to take hold.

Our reading is simple. Carriers have learned that a lane-wide base-rate hike does not stick in this market. So they are moving to targeted add-ons on the one or two lanes where rates are actually climbing. The Mediterranean is that lane right now. A surcharge is easier to defend than a new base rate, and easier to drop quietly later. Forwarders should treat it as an opening offer, not a fixed cost.

What Maersk filed

The notice is short. Maersk “is implementing the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for the scope of Far East Asia to Mediterranean”. A PSS is an extra charge carriers add in busy periods on top of the base freight rate.

The origin list runs from China, Japan and South Korea through Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan. Destinations include Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Albania, Israel and Ukraine. It also catches other European cargo that discharges at a Mediterranean port.

The timing rule matters. For non-spot bookings outside US regulation, the price calculation date (PCD) is the scheduled departure of the first sea leg at booking confirmation. For bookings under the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), the PCD is the last container gate-in date. Gate-in is when the box is delivered into the terminal. So a US-linked booking made today can still pick up the charge if the box arrives at the port after 23 November.

Maersk also notes that the charge comes on top of other surcharges. It says quotes that differ from its tariff are not binding on US or China-regulated trades unless they are in a filed service contract.

The GRI that did not happen

A GRI is a general rate increase: carriers announce a higher base rate for a whole trade from a set date. At the start of November, carriers planned GRIs of $1,000–1,500 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit, one 40ft box) on Asia–North Europe and Asia–Mediterranean, according to Freightos’ 3 November update. More increases were planned for mid-November.

They did not stick. Zencargo’s 3 November market update said freight-all-kinds rates “for the first half of November have largely been extended from October levels”. FAK rates are the standard spot tariff that applies to most cargo not on a named contract. Extending them means carriers kept October prices instead of raising them.

FreightWaves on 4 November cited Linerlytica, a liner analytics firm, calling the 1 November Asia–North Europe increase “effectively doomed”. Judah Levine of Freightos wrote that daily European rates “so far this week have stayed flat”. He added that this came “with some forwarders skeptical that market conditions will support further increases”.

Zencargo did report that Emergency Bunker Surcharges, extra fuel charges, “have continued to rise”. So total freight bills may still edge up even with base rates frozen. That is the same pattern: carriers recovering money through add-ons, not headline rates.

Why the Med is different

The Mediterranean is where carriers have pricing power, at least for now. Freightos puts its Asia–Mediterranean index (FBX13) at about $4,375 per FEU, up 3% on the week. Over the past month it rose 23%. Asia–North Europe (FBX11) is about $3,595, up 1% on the week and 10% on the month.

Context helps. FreightWaves, citing Freightos, notes that Asia–Europe rates fell $2,000–3,000 per FEU between July and September before recovering in October. So part of the Med’s 23% jump is a rebound from a deep trough, not new strength.

A year ago the market looked very different. On 29 October 2025, gCaptain, citing Xeneta data, put Far East–Mediterranean spot rates at $2,338 per FEU. That is a different index, so the comparison is rough. But it shows today’s Med level is high by recent standards. That same report noted North Europe spot rates had risen on 1 November in each of the two previous years, “at a time when volumes traditionally fall during October and November”. November hikes are a ritual. Whether they hold is the real question.

Capacity is the reason we doubt this one. Zencargo expects blank sailings to cut November Asia–Europe capacity by about 9%. A blank sailing is a cancelled voyage. In its words: “Blank sailings are expected to reduce overall November capacity by approximately 9%.” The Ocean Alliance accounts for more than half of those cancellations.

But capacity is also coming back through Suez. Zencargo counts “nine main services officially routed via the Suez Canal”. FreightWaves reports the Premier Alliance is adding two Asia–Med services to its Suez network in November. Shorter Suez voyages free up ships, and the Med is the first region to feel it. Levine noted that rates have risen despite “more container vessels routing back through the Red Sea”. That works until the extra ships arrive.

The transpacific tells the same story

The US trades show the same GRI failure. Carriers sought $2,000–3,000 per FEU in November increases, according to Freightos and FreightWaves. Instead, Asia–US East Coast (FBX03) fell 6% on the week to about $9,900. That is still about $200 above two weeks earlier. Asia–US West Coast was flat at around $8,300, the range it has held since September.

Levine still points to “the surprising rate resilience on the transpacific”. Prices remain about $5,500 per FEU above pre-peak levels. Zencargo said West Coast FAK rates for early November were held at October levels and East Coast FAK rates were slightly reduced. Peak season surcharges on named account contracts (NACs, contracts tied to a specific shipper) carry on into November.

Maersk is also using the targeted approach here. On 3 November it published a $75-per-container inland peak season surcharge for Canada cargo moving by truck or rail through Newark, Staten Island, Philadelphia, Norfolk, Savannah and Houston. It runs from 1 November 2026 to 31 January 2027. Small, specific and backdated: that is how carriers are collecting money this season.

What forwarders should do

First, quote the Med PSS now. Any Asia–Med booking that could load after 23 November should carry the $1,500/FEU charge as a line item, with a clear note that it follows the carrier’s tariff. On FMC-scope bookings, watch the gate-in date. A box delivered to the terminal on 24 November pays it, even if it was booked weeks earlier.

Second, push back on the headline. If your contract allows it, ask whether the PSS applies to your allocation, and ask other carriers on the lane whether they are matching it. Surcharges that only one carrier files tend to get discounted away.

Third, do not accept full GRIs on North Europe or the US East Coast. The market data says they are not holding. Buy rates for early November on North Europe are effectively October rates.

Fourth, plan around reliability, not space. Zencargo describes Asia–Europe space as stable but “tightly controlled” on contracts. On the transpacific, blank sailings have eased because of ship bunching and double sailings. Expect rolled bookings and changed schedules more than shortages.

For shippers, the lesson is to separate base rate and surcharges in every quote. If the base rate is flat and the add-ons rise, total costs can still go up. Ask for the full breakdown.

There is a contract angle too. Spot strength in the last weeks of the year often feeds into talks on annual contracts that start in January. In October 2025, Xeneta’s Emily Stausbøll put the shipper’s logic bluntly in gCaptain: “why would a shipper lock into long term rates that are higher than short term rates?” The same question applies now. A surcharge-inflated Med spot price in late November is a weak base for a 2027 contract number. Shippers negotiating Med volumes should benchmark against base rates and treat the PSS as temporary.

Two things could make the surcharge stick, and both are worth watching. One is a sudden reversal of Suez routings, which would pull ships back onto the longer route round Africa and tighten space fast. The other is other carriers filing matching Med surcharges for the same dates, which would turn one carrier’s add-on into a lane-wide price.

Our prediction

We think the Med PSS will be mostly discounted away. Our call: by the first week of December, Freightos’ Asia–Mediterranean index (FBX13) will be below $4,875 per FEU. That is less than $500 above today’s $4,375, meaning no more than a third of Maersk’s $1,500 surcharge shows up in market prices. We also expect the mid-November Asia–North Europe increase to fail like the first one, with FBX11 still below $4,000 per FEU by the same date. The reason is capacity: Suez routings and new Med services will add more space than blank sailings remove.

Sources

Read us on Google? Add Forwarder News as a preferred source to see more of our stories in Top Stories.