Saturday, October 31, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Oct 31, 2026 · 7 min read

SCFI edges up as Med firms and US lanes slip

The Mediterranean is the one lane carriers still control going into November

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose 6.01 points, or 0.2%, to 3,687.35 on Friday 30 October. It was the fourth weekly gain in a row, and the gains are narrowing. The SCFI is a weekly spot-rate index published by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, built from rates out of Shanghai on a basket of main trade lanes.

Taiwan’s Economic Daily News reported the print on Friday afternoon, and UDN ran a fuller version just after midnight Taipei time. Both say the same thing about the composite: up, but under 1%.

The composite is the least useful part of this week’s print. Underneath it, the Mediterranean is climbing, North Europe is barely moving, and both US coasts are falling. This is the last index reading before the 1 November rate round. In our view it shows carriers have pricing power on one lane, the Med, and are losing it on the transpacific.

What the lanes did

All figures are from Economic Daily News for the week to 30 October.

  • Far East–Mediterranean: $3,350 per TEU, up $95, or 2.9%. Up 11.8% on the month. A TEU is a twenty-foot equivalent unit, one standard 20ft box.
  • Far East–North Europe: $2,370 per TEU, up $19, or 0.8%. Up 7.8% on the month.
  • Far East–US West Coast: $7,479 per FEU, down $42. That is a fall of about 0.6% on the week, and the paper puts the monthly fall at 1.3%. An FEU is one 40ft box.
  • Far East–US East Coast: $10,199 per FEU, down $189, or 1.8%. Down 3.1% on the month.
  • Far East–Southeast Asia: $1,164 per TEU, up $18.

So the gain in the composite came from Europe and the Med. The US lanes took something away from it.

The paper says Europe has outperformed North America since the start of October. It describes the US lanes as easing after a volatile, high-level stretch during October, which is normally a slow month.

Why we think the Med is the lane to watch

Carriers file FAK rates for the start of each month. FAK means “freight all kinds”: a single rate per box, whatever the cargo. Filing a rate is not the same as getting it. A filed rate sticks only when ships are full enough that carriers do not need to discount.

On the evidence this week, the Med is the lane where that is most likely. It rose five times as much as North Europe in dollars, from a higher base. And it is up 11.8% in a month.

Freightos data shows the same trend. AJOT’s 28 October Freightos update had Asia–Mediterranean (FBX13) up 8% to $4,252 per FEU. Asia–North Europe (FBX11) was up 3% to $3,551 per FEU. Freightos and SCFI measure different things and use different units, so the levels cannot be compared directly. But both have the Med rising faster than North Europe.

The same AJOT update said carriers were lining up November increases on Asia–Europe lanes, and that prices had been rising since mid-month. It added that some forwarders were reporting carrier discounts and did not expect the increases to stick. We agree on North Europe. A 0.8% weekly gain on the SCFI is not the kind of move that comes before a big jump on 1 November.

Economic Daily News gives a reason for caution on Europe too. The paper says European demand has stayed weak. It also says carriers returning to Suez Canal routings from November should shorten voyages and make ship scheduling easier. Shorter voyages put more effective capacity on the lane. That works against carriers trying to push prices up.

The transpacific is slipping on every index we can see

On the US lanes, the SCFI is now falling on both coasts. The East Coast drop matters more. On 28 October, AJOT’s Freightos update had Asia–US East Coast (FBX03) up 9% to $10,565 per FEU, which it called a year high. Two days later the SCFI had the East Coast lane down $189 and 3.1% lower on the month. Again, the two indices are built differently. But the SCFI suggests the East Coast high is not holding.

The Taiwanese operators in the UDN reports take a more bullish view. They expect North American rates to stay high in early November. Their reasons are waits of three to six days at the Panama Canal, congestion at ports in Asia and parts of Europe, and inland transport delays caused by flooding. The reports also say the industry is watching a possible joint strike by European and Mediterranean port unions on 30 October. In their words, the market has too many variables right now.

Those are real risks. But congestion pushes rates up only while it lasts, and that is not the same as demand. We think congestion can slow the transpacific fall but not reverse it.

There are two US events in the next fortnight. A local watchmen’s union at Los Angeles and Long Beach has voted to authorise a strike, AJOT reported. On 30 October the deadline was pushed back from 1 November to 5pm Pacific on Wednesday 4 November, gCaptain reported. The union is about 2% of the workforce but provides security at a large share of terminals. The same report said the US port call fees on China-linked ships, due on 10 November, are still on the books, but the USTR, the US Trade Representative, has asked for comments on postponing them to January. A short watchmen’s action could hold up gates for a few days. It would not change how much cargo needs to move.

What happened last November

The 1 November rate round has a recent history, and it is a warning for anyone predicting on Europe.

In mid-October 2025, MSC filed 1 November FAK rates of $2,700 per 40ft high-cube from the Far East to North Europe. A high-cube is a taller 40ft box. It filed $3,000 to the East Med and $3,200 to the West Med. That was reported in a Loadstar piece republished by gCaptain on 17 October 2025. At the time, Drewry had Shanghai–Rotterdam at $1,669 and Shanghai–Los Angeles at $2,195. One freight buyer told the Loadstar: “I expect [rates] to slide quickly but they’re all wanting to go aggressively for a 1 November increase”.

The buyer was right about the transpacific and wrong about Europe. By 11 December 2025, gCaptain reported, Drewry had Shanghai–Rotterdam at $2,361 and Shanghai–Genoa at $3,004, up 13% that week. Shanghai–Los Angeles had slipped to $2,103.

So the pattern last year matches this week’s SCFI: Asia–Europe held up and the transpacific faded. The difference is the starting level. Rates are far higher now, and the Suez return the Taiwanese operators describe would add capacity to Asia–Europe in a way it did not last year.

What forwarders should do now

  • Med: quote firm and book early-November space now. Of all the lanes, this is the one where waiting is most likely to cost you money.
  • North Europe: do not pass a full 1 November increase on to customers without seeing it billed. Quote with a short validity and expect carriers to discount by mid-month.
  • US West and East Coast: keep quote validity to one or two weeks. If you must give a monthly rate, put the risk on the carrier, not on you. Watch for strike news on 4 November but do not price it in for more than a few days.
  • Customers on index-linked contracts should be told that the SCFI composite rise hides falling US lanes. If their contract tracks a single lane, the composite tells them very little.

Our calls

We expect Drewry’s Shanghai–Los Angeles rate to fall below $7,000 per 40ft by its week-47 reading, published around 19 November. We do not expect any transpacific GRI (general rate increase) to stick before December.

On Asia–Europe, we expect Shanghai–Rotterdam to be back below $3,522 per 40ft and Shanghai–Genoa below $4,500 by the same 19 November reading. We do not expect November FAK filings on the trade to be realised. We expect Drewry’s composite WCI to stay below $4,485 through late November.

This week’s 2.9% rise on the Med is the main risk to those calls. If the SCFI Mediterranean lane is still rising on its 13 November print, Genoa is the call most likely to miss.

Sources