Drewry WCI hits a 15-week high on the US lanes, not on Europe

The index is back at its July level. Asia–Europe is a quarter cheaper and the US lanes are paying for it

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) rose 2% to $4,585 per 40ft container on Thursday 22 October. The WCI is a weekly average of spot rates, the price for a box booked now, on eight major east–west lanes. Drewry says this is the second weekly rise in a row and the highest reading in 15 weeks.

The bigger change sits under the headline. Next week carriers will blank, or cancel, eight Asia–Europe sailings. This week they blanked two. That is a large one-week cut in capacity on the main lane where spot rates are still well below what carriers are asking.

Our view is that the headline exaggerates how strong the market is. The composite is back near where it was in early July, but it got there on very different cargo. Asia–Europe is a quarter to a third cheaper than in July. The US lanes have more than made up the gap. This week’s rise on Europe is real, but it comes from cancelled ships, not from more cargo. We expect it to fade once those ships return.

What Drewry published this week

Drewry gave four of its eight lanes as text on 22 October. The full eight-lane table was published as an image:

• Shanghai–Rotterdam: up 3% to $3,632 per 40ft

• Shanghai–Genoa: up 5% to $4,152

• Shanghai–Los Angeles: up 2% to $8,007

• Shanghai–New York: up 1% to $10,166

On the transpacific, Drewry counts two blank sailings next week, down from six. It credits US import demand for holding rates up: “Since strong US import demand continues to support freight rates, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week.”

On Asia–Europe, the call is a little firmer: “Drewry expects rates to increase slightly next week amid tight capacity.” Drewry also notes that ship waiting time at Shanghai fell from 97 hours in week 38 to 38 hours in week 42. Ships spending less time at anchor outside the port means less capacity is tied up in queues. That works against the tight-capacity argument.

Drewry tracks two security-related numbers. Containerships sailing into the Gulf fell to two in week 42 from five the week before. Suez Canal transits rose to 55 from 54. Drewry describes the outlook as one that “remains dependent on demand, capacity adjustments and developments in regional security.”

The July comparison

Fifteen weeks before 22 October was 9 July. On that date, according to Ship Universe’s report of the Drewry figures, the composite was $4,639, only $54 above today. The lanes underneath look very different now.

• Shanghai–Rotterdam: $4,933 then, $3,632 now. Down 26%.

• Shanghai–Genoa: $6,463 then, $4,152 now. Down 36%.

• Shanghai–Los Angeles: $6,482 then, $8,007 now. Up 24%.

• Shanghai–New York: $7,904 then, $10,166 now. Up 29%.

The percentages are our calculations from the two Drewry readings. In July, Europe and the US were priced in the same range. Now New York costs nearly three times as much as Rotterdam. The composite looks unchanged because a fall on one trade and a rise on the other roughly cancel out.

The summer also gives a reference point for carrier pricing. In June, CMA CGM announced a $6,300 per 40ft FAK from Asia to North Europe from 1 July, Container News reported. FAK stands for “freight all kinds”: one published rate for any general cargo, whatever the commodity. Rotterdam spot reached $4,933 on 9 July, about $1,370 below that ask, and has since fallen to $3,632. A published FAK is an asking price. The spot index shows what is actually being paid.

The gap between spot and the asks

The same pattern is showing up again, at lower levels.

Hapag-Lloyd’s FAK from the Far East to North Europe has been $4,200 per 40ft for sailings with a tariffing date on or after 19 October, Container News reported on 24 September. To the West Med and Adriatic it is $4,600. That puts Rotterdam spot $568 below the Hapag-Lloyd North Europe rate and Genoa $448 below the West Med rate.

CMA CGM is asking more. Container News reported on 20 October that its FAK for 1 to 14 November is $4,900 per 40ft to the West Med, $5,000 to the Adriatic and $5,200 to the East Med and Black Sea. Genoa spot at $4,152 is $748 below the West Med figure.

The rises are going in, but slowly. This week’s gain moved Rotterdam 3%, while the asks are 11–18% higher. Blanking eight sailings in one week is how carriers try to close that gap: take the ships off and make shippers compete for the remaining space.

That can work for a week or two. It rarely works for a month. Blanked sailings are withdrawn, not scrapped, and the ships come back into the rotation. Faster turnaround at Shanghai, from 97 hours to 38, means the remaining ships also cycle through quicker. Suez transits edging up add a little effective capacity on the lane as well.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

The most immediate issue is space, not price. With eight sailings out next week, expect rolled bookings and tighter allocations on Asia–North Europe and Asia–Med. Shippers with cargo that has to move in early November should book now and confirm sailings in writing. Watch for carriers moving cargo from a blanked sailing to the next one without warning.

On price, keep two things separate. A spot quote for a box leaving next week will probably go up a little, as Drewry expects. A 2027 contract rate should not be based on that. Tender season for 2027 is starting, and carriers would like November FAKs to set the reference. Spot has never reached those FAKs, either in July or now. A tender that anchors on $4,200–4,900 to Europe is pricing in a capacity squeeze that, in our view, is temporary.

The transpacific is a different story. Los Angeles at $8,007 and New York at $10,166 are both well above July, and Drewry credits US import demand. With blank sailings there falling to two from six, carriers are adding ships back to the trade. We think that keeps a lid on further gains. For US-bound cargo, current levels look like the range to plan around for the rest of the year. We don’t expect them to fall soon.

Two more things to watch. Only two containerships sailed into the Gulf in week 42, so cargo for that region may need longer routings or transhipment. And because the composite is now driven mostly by US lanes, anyone using the WCI headline as a proxy for Europe in surcharge clauses or index-linked contracts should check which lanes it is actually tracking.

Our prediction

These are our calls, not Drewry’s.

We think the Asia–Europe rise does not hold. By Drewry’s week-47 reading, published around 19 November, we expect Shanghai–Rotterdam to be back below $3,522 per 40ft, and Shanghai–Genoa to be below $4,500. That would leave Genoa well short of CMA CGM’s $4,900 West Med FAK and leave the North Europe FAK levels unrealised. Eight blank sailings next week make the next one or two readings firmer, but they do not change where we expect rates to be by mid-November, once those ships are back.

We expect at least one more round of carrier FAK announcements for 1 December, timed for tender season. We expect it to meet the same resistance.

On the transpacific, we expect Shanghai–Los Angeles to stay between $7,000 and $8,500 per 40ft through the end of November. We don’t expect a GRI (general rate increase) that sticks before December. We expect the composite WCI to drift lower over the same period, pulled down by Europe, and to be below $4,485 by late November.

Sources

• \
• Drewry — World Container Index – 22 Oct, 22 October 2026 \
• Ship Universe — Container Rate Rally Extends as Drewry WCI Hits Another 2026 High, 10 July 2026 \
• Container News — Hapag-Lloyd raises Far East to Europe freight rates, 24 September 2026 \
• Container News — CMA CGM raises Asia–Mediterranean rates and announces new surcharges, 20 October 2026 \
• Container News — CMA CGM announces new FAK rates on Asia-Europe and Europe-ISC trades, 12 June 2026