Drewry WCI falls 3% as the transpacific slides
Six blank sailings could not hold the transpacific: why November’s filed rates are already slipping
Drewry’s World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per 40ft container in its 29 October edition. The index is a weekly average of spot rates on eight East–West lanes. Drewry said the drop came “mainly due to a decrease in rates on the Transpacific trade route.” It ended a two-week rise.
Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 6% to $7,514 per 40ft. Shanghai–New York fell 5% to $9,631. Asia–Europe barely moved.
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Our view is simple. The 1 November increases that carriers filed are failing before they take effect. The transpacific, not Asia–Europe, is now leading the market down.
What Drewry’s numbers show
Start with the transpacific. Drewry says Shanghai–Los Angeles “fell 6% to $7,514 per 40ft container.” Shanghai–New York “decreased 5% to $9,631 per 40ft container.”
Carriers are trying to support rates by cutting sailings. A blank sailing is a voyage the carrier cancels, which takes that ship’s capacity off the lane for that week. Drewry says “six blank sailings have been announced for next week, up from five this week, indicating tight capacity.”
Six cancellations would normally help rates. Here they are being outrun by demand. Drewry cites the US National Retail Federation, whose forecast says US ocean import volumes “are forecast to decrease 11% MoM in November.” MoM means month on month. An 11% drop in one month is a big fall in cargo, and it lands right after the 1 November filing date.
Drewry draws the obvious conclusion: “Hence, Drewry expects rates to decrease next week.”
Now Asia–Europe. Drewry says Shanghai–Rotterdam “inched up 1% to $3,686 per 40ft container.” Shanghai–Genoa “remained stable at $4,151 per 40ft container.”
Carriers on this trade are “announcing higher FAK rates for November.” FAK stands for freight all kinds. It is the published base rate a carrier charges for general cargo, and carriers use new FAK filings to try to lift the spot market on set dates. Drewry says it is unclear whether these increases will hold, given the capacity available and weak demand. It expects Asia–Europe rates to stay stable next week.
The capacity signal on Asia–Europe points the other way from the FAKs. Blank sailings for next week fell to four, from eight this week. Fewer cancellations means more ships actually sailing. Drewry reads that as more effective capacity on the trade.
What analysts are saying
Linerlytica, a liner market analyst, published its Week 43 Market Pulse on 27 October, two days before Drewry’s index. Its tone is blunter.
“Carriers have failed to push through the planned November rate hikes,” it wrote. It also said “container freight rates have peaked as cargo demand softens heading into the traditional slack winter season.”
Linerlytica adds a capacity point that matters for both main trades. It says “Total capacity deployed on the Far East-Mediterranean route has dropped by 470,000 teu since July.” A TEU is a twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard measure of container capacity. Part of that drop comes from ships switching back to the Suez Canal, which is a shorter route than going around Africa. A shorter route needs fewer ships for the same weekly service, so ships are freed up.
Those spare ships have to go somewhere. Linerlytica says “40 of the ships released so far have already been redeployed”, mainly to the transpacific and Latin America. That is extra supply arriving on the transpacific just as US import volumes are forecast to fall.
On North Europe, Linerlytica says there has been no big capacity cut yet. It writes: “The return to the Suez route is only expected to impact capacity deployed on the North Europe route in December”. So the same effect could reach Rotterdam and Hamburg services next month.
Drewry’s own data supports the Suez trend. It says Suez Canal transits rose to 62 vessels last week, “the highest weekly level this year.” The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with “only two vessels transiting the strait of Hormuz last week.”
There is one short-term wild card. Drewry says congestion at Shanghai is easing, but “Typhoon Champi could disrupt this improvement.” Linerlytica says the typhoon added up to three days to some North Asia schedules. Delays like that can briefly tighten capacity. We do not think they change the direction of the market.
What happened last time
The same pattern played out a year ago. In late November 2025, ChemAnalyst reported that an early-November GRI had lifted West Coast rates by about $1,000 per 40ft. A GRI is a general rate increase, a flat rise carriers announce for a set date. By 28 November 2025, ChemAnalyst said Shanghai–Los Angeles spot rates had fallen about 32% in a single week, to roughly $2,172 per 40ft.
ChemAnalyst put it this way at the time: “The steep drop reflects overcapacity and soft demand rather than operational disruption.”
Rates this year are far higher than in 2025, so the dollar figures are not comparable. The lesson is. A November increase filed into a weakening market lasted only weeks last year. This year, the increase appears to be failing even before the filing date.
What this means for forwarders
On the transpacific, we think filed November rates are a ceiling, not a floor. Forwarders quoting for November should expect carriers to accept less than their filed levels, especially for steady volume. Shippers with flexible cargo have a reason to wait a week or two before booking, given Drewry’s forecast of further falls.
The gap between the two main trades is also worth putting in front of customers. On Drewry’s figures, moving a 40ft box from Shanghai to New York costs $9,631. Moving one from Shanghai to Rotterdam costs $3,686. That is more than 2.5 times as much for the US East Coast. Shanghai–Los Angeles, at $7,514, is still about twice the Rotterdam rate. A gap that wide gives carriers room to cut transpacific rates and still charge far more per box than in Europe. That is why we expect the transpacific to keep falling first.
It also matters for customers who ship to both continents. Budgets set when transpacific rates were rising will now look too high for the US side. Freight budgets for Europe, by contrast, may need to hold steady for now, because Asia–Europe has not yet turned down. Forwarders who explain that split early will avoid awkward conversations when November invoices arrive.
Rate validity is the practical risk. If you quote a customer a fixed November rate today, you may be quoting above where the market sits by mid-month. Shorter validity periods, or quotes tied to the date of sailing, protect both sides.
On Asia–Europe, the picture is more mixed. Rates are holding, and carriers are pushing November FAKs. But blank sailings have halved, Mediterranean capacity is being freed by the Suez return, and Linerlytica expects the North Europe effect in December. We think forwarders should treat Asia–Europe FAK filings as asking prices and test them with spot quotes from more than one carrier.
For importers planning Lunar New Year cargo, the balance looks better than it did two weeks ago. More ships are being freed by the Suez return, and US demand is softening. That should give shippers room to negotiate early-2027 shipments, although carriers will try again to lift rates before the pre-holiday rush.
Watch three things in the next three weeks. First, Drewry’s next two readings on Shanghai–Los Angeles. Second, whether carriers add more transpacific blank sailings beyond six a week. Third, whether Suez transits keep rising above 62 a week, which would free more ships.
Our call
These predictions are ours.
We expect Shanghai–Los Angeles to fall below $7,000 per 40ft by Drewry’s week-47 reading, published around 19 November. It needs a further fall of just under 7% from $7,514. The reasons are Drewry’s own forecast of further falls, the 11% November import drop it cites, and the ships being moved onto the trade. We do not expect any transpacific GRI to stick before December.
On Asia–Europe, we expect Shanghai–Rotterdam to be back below $3,522 per 40ft and Shanghai–Genoa below $4,500 by the same 19 November reading. November FAK filings on the trade will not be realised.
We expect Drewry’s composite WCI to stay below $4,485 through late November. The index is already there. But the force pulling it down has changed: it is now the transpacific first, with Europe to follow as the Suez capacity reaches North Europe in December.
Sources
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