Saturday, October 31, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Oct 31, 2026 · 7 min read

LA/Long Beach watchmen deadline moves to 4 November

Federal mediators move the LA/Long Beach strike clock to Wednesday, and the rail backlog keeps running

The strike that could shut much of Long Beach and part of Los Angeles has been pushed back by three days. On Friday 30 October the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) and ILWU Local 26 agreed to extend talks until 5pm Pacific on Wednesday 4 November (gCaptain). The walkout had been threatened for Sunday 1 November. The Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS), the US government agency that helps settle labour disputes, is now in the room.

About 250 people are involved. They are maritime watchmen, the security staff who handle gate security and cargo watch at the terminals (Sourcing Journal). Their numbers are small. Their reach is not.

What we think the extension means

In our view, this is the most useful thing that could have happened short of a signed deal. We think talks that bring in federal mediators and stretch a deadline are more likely to end in an agreement than a picket line. Neither side has walked away. Both chose more time over a fight.

But be clear about what has changed. The risk has not gone. It has moved from a Sunday evening, when gates are quiet, to a Wednesday evening in the middle of peak season. Wednesday is also the day after the 3 November US midterm elections. If talks fail, the stoppage would start with a full working week of import pickups, export deliveries and vessel calls already booked around it.

So our view is simple. A deal is more likely than it was a week ago. A walkout, if it comes, would hurt more on a Wednesday than it would have on a Sunday. Plan for both.

Why 250 guards can stop terminals

The watchmen make up roughly 2% of the union’s workforce at the San Pedro Bay port complex, according to Sourcing Journal. But PMA says Local 26 members work at terminals that handle about 85% of cargo at the Port of Long Beach and 33% at the Port of Los Angeles (gCaptain).

The leverage comes from the picket line. PMA has warned that other ILWU workers are unlikely to cross Local 26 picket lines. If they stay out, vessel, yard and gate operations at those terminals could stop (gCaptain). The Wall Street Journal reported the same worry from PMA, according to Sourcing Journal.

FreightWaves, citing PMA, reports a walkout could affect eight container terminals. Dimerco, a forwarder, lists these facilities as potentially affected:

  • APM Terminals (APMT)
  • Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT)
  • Total Terminals International (TTI)
  • SSA Marine’s C-60, A-90 and LB 206
  • Pacific Container Terminal (PCT)

Dimerco also says other terminals may be affected and stresses that this is not a confirmed port-wide shutdown.

The dispute is old. Local 26’s contract expired in July 2025, and the watchmen have worked under an extension since then (Sourcing Journal). The union says employers have not made meaningful progress. PMA says significant differences remain (gCaptain). PMA says full-time watchmen average more than $170,000 a year with fully paid health care and pension benefits (Sourcing Journal). In its statement, PMA said it “remains committed to reaching a fair agreement at the bargaining table”. The union had not commented when Sourcing Journal’s report was published.

The gateway is already stretched

Any stoppage would land on ports that are busy and backed up.

The two ports handled a combined record 2.04 million TEU in September (gCaptain). TEU means twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard way to count containers. FreightWaves puts Los Angeles at about 1.04 million TEU and Long Beach at 997,177 TEU for the month.

The bigger problem is rail. As of 26 October, 35,688 import containers were waiting for on-dock trains across the two ports, according to FreightWaves, citing daily port rail reports. Of those, 10,562 had been sitting at the terminal for nine days or more. The split is uneven:

  • Los Angeles: 19,626 containers waiting for trains, 8,133 of them (41.4%) for nine days or more.
  • Long Beach: 16,062 containers waiting, 2,429 of them (15.1%) for nine days or more.

Average rail dwell, the time an import box sits at the terminal before leaving by train, was 7.19 days in September, up from 6.75 in August. Truck dwell rose to 3.18 days from 2.95. Both figures come from the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association (PMSA), as reported by FreightWaves.

The ports say they are coping. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said, according to FreightWaves: “The dwell times on truck at about three and a half days have been pretty stable for the last 90 days.” Noel Hacegaba, chief executive of the Port of Long Beach, said “average rail time remains under five days”. The railroads point to demand. A Union Pacific spokesperson said: “Strong international volumes have tightened rail car supply”.

Those official dwell figures and the nine-day queue are not the same measure. For a forwarder with a box stuck in Los Angeles, the queue matters more than the average.

What happened last time

The closest comparison is 2012. That year, clerical workers in ILWU Local 63’s Office Clerical Unit struck at the same two ports. About 10,000 longshore workers and other union members refused to cross their picket lines. Ten of the ports’ 14 container terminals shut (Reuters via gCaptain).

The ships did not wait long. By 3 December 2012, the walkout’s seventh day, at least 11 ships had taken their cargo to ports in northern California, Mexico and Panama. Another 11 sat at anchor, unable to unload (Reuters via gCaptain). “Shippers are a conservative bunch,” Steve Getzug, spokesman for the Harbor Employers Association, said at the time.

The strike lasted eight days. It began on 27 November and ended with a tentative deal late on 4 December, the Associated Press reported. Port officials estimated that about $760 million a day in cargo was kept from delivery. Federal mediators arrived less than two hours before the deal and said they had little to do with it. George Cohen, then director of the FMCS, said: “In the final analysis, it worked.”

Two lessons carry over. First, a small union can close most of a port complex if the dockworkers honour its picket line. Second, carriers moved ships within about a week. That is the point at which a local labour problem becomes a network problem.

There is one big difference. In 2012 the clerks had worked without a contract for more than two years (AP). The watchmen have been talking for over a year under an extension. They have already chosen to talk rather than strike once.

What forwarders should do this week

The extension gives you three extra days. Use them as if Wednesday is a real deadline, because it is.

  • Pull imports early. Dimerco’s advice is to prioritise import pickups and empty returns before the deadline, and not to delay moves just because the deadline has shifted. That advice stands now that the extension is confirmed.
  • Check export cut-offs. Review export receiving windows and vessel cut-offs at the named terminals for 2 to 6 November before you deliver cargo.
  • Keep a paper trail. Record access restrictions and failed pickup or return attempts. Dimerco warns not to assume that demurrage (fees for boxes left at the terminal past free time) and detention (fees for equipment kept out too long) will be waived.
  • Watch the rail-bound boxes. A short stoppage adds days to a queue that already runs past nine days for 41.4% of LA’s rail-waiting imports. Inland customers on intermodal moves face the biggest risk.
  • Talk to shippers now. Shippers with time-sensitive freight may want to look at alternatives for vessels arriving close to 4 November. Moving early costs less than moving after a walkout starts.

The bigger cost this month is likely to be the rail backlog, not the strike. Even with a deal, boxes waiting nine days or more will keep running up storage and detention bills.

Our prediction

Our prediction: a deal or another extension is announced before the 5pm Pacific deadline on Wednesday 4 November. If picket lines do go up, we expect no stoppage at the named terminals to last longer than 72 hours before 30 November. We also expect the rail backlog, not the strike, to be the main source of delay and extra charges on this gateway through the end of November. If a stoppage does last beyond three days, we expect carriers to start diverting ships within a week, as happened in 2012.

Sources