Thursday, October 29, 2026
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Geopolitics Oct 29, 2026 · 7 min read

LA/Long Beach watchmen strike threat

250 port watchmen could stop terminals moving 85% of Long Beach cargo on Sunday. About 250 security watchmen in ILWU Local 26, part of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, could strike at 5 p.m. Pacific on Sunday 1 November. Employers say their terminals handle about 85% of Long Beach’s cargo and 33% of Los Angeles’. Employers expect dockworkers to honour picket lines. Our view: the real risk is timing, because the ports already have a rail backlog. Mediators are involved. Check which terminal your boxes are at. Our call: no stoppage longer than 72 hours before 30 November.

Sunday’s watchmen deadline puts a small union in charge of a big share of US imports

About 250 security watchmen could strike at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach from 5 p.m. Pacific time on Sunday 1 November. They belong to the International Longshore and Warehouse Union’s Local 26. Their latest contract extension runs out at that hour. The Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which bargains for the terminal operators, says the terminals where they work handle roughly 85% of Long Beach’s cargo and 33% of Los Angeles’ cargo.

In our view, the most likely outcome is a late deal or another extension, not a long shutdown. But the dispute deserves more attention than its size suggests. The ports were already struggling to move containers inland. Even a two-day stoppage at these terminals would make that problem worse, at the end of a record-volume peak season.

What is on the table

The watchmen guard the terminal gates and check who and what comes in and out. Their contract is separate from the main coastwide ILWU contract for longshore workers and marine clerks, which runs through 2028, according to FreightWaves and gCaptain. So this is not a repeat of the big coastwide talks. It is a local fight with a local deadline.

Their previous agreement expired in July 2025, FreightWaves reports. Since then they have worked under extensions. The latest one ends on Sunday evening. PMA says Local 26 has authorised a strike. Negotiations “are continuing with the assistance of federal mediators,” FreightWaves reports.

The two sides do not even agree on the scope. PMA counts six terminals that employ Local 26 watchmen. The union’s notice lists eight locations, gCaptain reports: APM Terminals (APMT), Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT), Total Terminals International (TTI), SSA at C-60, A-90 and LB 206, Pacific Container Terminal (PCT) and OH 55.

Local 26 President Luisa Gratz set out the union’s side in a letter to other maritime unions. She wrote that “nothing of value has resulted from the Union’s commitment to bargaining in good faith”. She also wrote: “We are asking for your support and labor solidarity”. Both quotes are from gCaptain’s report. The union has not publicly detailed its demands, according to FreightWaves.

PMA defends its offer. It says the offer includes wage increases and pension improvements. It also says full-time watchmen earn an average of more than $170,000 a year, plus employer-paid health care and pensions. gCaptain notes PMA did not break that figure down. PMA said significant differences remain. Its statement says “The Pacific Maritime Association remains committed to reaching a fair agreement with ILWU Local 26 at the bargaining table” and that “A timely agreement matters not only to the parties at the table, but to the entire Southern California supply chain”.

Why 250 people matter so much

The watchmen are about 2% of ILWU workers at the two ports. On their own they cannot stop a crane. The power comes from the picket line, the line of striking workers outside a workplace that other union members refuse to cross.

PMA itself says it expects other ILWU members would honour picket lines. That would mean “potentially halting vessel, yard and gate operations”, FreightWaves reports. In plain terms: no ships worked, no boxes moved around the yard, no trucks in or out.

Freightos made the same point in its weekly update, published 28 October. A strike “could have an outsized impact on operations,” it said, because the union provides security for a large share of terminals.

There is a clear precedent. In late November 2012, about 70 clerical workers from ILWU Local 63’s Office and Clerical Unit struck at APM Terminals’ Pier 400 in Los Angeles. About 10,000 longshore workers would not cross their lines. By the second day, six of seven Los Angeles terminals and three of six Long Beach terminals were shut, according to Wikipedia’s account of the strike. It lasted eight days, from 27 November to 4 December. By the end, 17 ships bound for the twin ports had been diverted elsewhere, including to Oakland and Ensenada in Mexico.

The lesson for forwarders: the size of the striking union does not tell you the size of the disruption. A small unit with picket-line support can close most of the complex.

Bad timing for a fragile gateway

The threat lands at an awkward moment. Los Angeles and Long Beach set all-time monthly records in September, handling a combined 2.04 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units, the standard container measure), gCaptain reports.

That cargo has not all moved inland. FreightWaves says the complex “is already contending with a backlog of containers awaiting inland rail transportation”, driven by terminal congestion and a shortage of rail equipment in Southern California. A separate FreightWaves report, linked from its strike story, carries the headline: “Backlog grows as 35,000 containers await rail service at LA–Long Beach”. Freightos also flags “existing delays for containers moving by rail”.

This matters because on-dock rail, where containers are loaded straight onto trains inside the terminal, depends on the same terminals the watchmen guard. If those gates and yards stop, rail-bound boxes stop too. Every day of stoppage adds to a queue that is already long.

There is a small piece of relief. The National Retail Federation expects imports at major US container ports to fall from 2.25 million TEU in October to 2 million TEU in November, gCaptain reports. That is a drop of about 11%. A strike in November would hit a gateway that is past its peak inflow, not one at the top of it.

Rates also give a mixed picture. The Freightos Baltic Index, a weekly measure of spot container prices, rose 3% last week to $8,368 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit) from Asia to the US West Coast. Asia to the US East Coast rose 9% to $10,565, a year high. Freightos says East Coast daily rates have since pulled back, though they remain about $200 per FEU above last week. Some forwarders report cooling demand and more space. The labour risk is not yet pushing West Coast prices the way it would in a tight market.

What forwarders should do this week

First, map your exposure by terminal, not by port. A box at APMT, LBCT, TTI, PCT or the SSA facilities is exposed. A box at a terminal outside the list is less so, but may still feel the knock-on congestion.

Second, prioritise rail-bound and time-sensitive cargo. Containers already discharged and waiting for a train are the most likely to be stuck. Push for pickup before Sunday evening where you can, especially for local truck moves.

Third, read your free-time terms now. Free time is the number of days a container can sit at the terminal, or stay out with the importer, before charges start. Demurrage is the charge for boxes left at the terminal. Detention is the charge for keeping the carrier’s equipment too long outside it. Ask carriers and terminals in writing whether they will suspend these clocks if gates are shut by a labour action. Get answers before the deadline, not after.

Fourth, have a diversion option ready for cargo still at sea. Oakland, Seattle-Tacoma and Prince Rupert or Vancouver in Canada are the usual alternatives. In 2012, ships went to Oakland and Ensenada. Diversions cost money and add days, so they make sense only if a stoppage looks like it will last.

Fifth, warn your shippers. Retailers moving holiday stock through Southern California should know that a two-day stoppage could mean a week or more of knock-on delay on rail moves to the Midwest and Texas, given the backlog already in place.

Our call

Our view is that neither side wants a long fight. PMA has said in public that it will keep negotiating past the deadline if needed. Mediators are involved. The union has a strong hand while volumes are high, and that is exactly why it is likely to settle on improved terms rather than test it for weeks.

Our prediction: a deal or another extension is announced by Wednesday 4 November. If picket lines do go up, we expect no stoppage at the named terminals to last longer than 72 hours before 30 November. We also expect the rail backlog, not the strike, to be the main source of delay and extra charges on this gateway through the end of November. If a stoppage does last beyond three days, we would expect carriers to start diverting ships within a week, as happened in 2012.

Sources