Thursday, October 29, 2026
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Geopolitics Oct 29, 2026 · 8 min read

US Navy warns ships off Hormuz as strike talk grows

US Navy tells ships with no reason to be near Hormuz to stay away. On 28 October the US Navy told ships that do not need to use the Strait of Hormuz to “remain well clear”. It is the first such notice since July. We read it as a warning to clear the area before a possible strike. The Wall Street Journal reports Gulf states were told to expect a “short, intense” campaign after the 3 November midterms. Iranian attacks on ships hit almost 30 in October. Forwarders should keep November Gulf cargo on the Khor Fakkan and Fujairah land bridges. Our call: no major carrier restores scheduled Hormuz container service before 1 December.

The US Navy’s first Hormuz warning since July tells Gulf shippers to plan November without the strait

On Wednesday 28 October, the US Navy told merchant ships to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz unless they have to be there. The notice is Advisory Note 016-26, headed “Blockade Enforcement”. US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT, the Navy’s Middle East command) issued it through the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a coalition body that publishes security notices for shipping. It is the first notice of its kind since mid-July, when the US began its blockade of Iranian shipping, according to Bloomberg via Transport Topics.

Our view is simple. This is a clear-the-decks warning. Washington is telling commercial shipping to get out of the way before it decides whether to strike Iran again. For anyone moving boxes to the Upper Gulf in November, the strait should be treated as unavailable, whatever happens in the peace talks this week.

What the advisory says

The wording is short and blunt. According to Transport Topics, the advisory says “vessels which do not need to transit the area are advised to remain well clear to avoid unnecessary delays to their voyage”. It covers the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.

Ships that do go through are told to “plan additional transit time to allow for increased traffic density”. The National reports the advisory also cites “military blockade enforcement operations” as a reason for delay.

The part forwarders should read twice concerns neutral ships. According to Transport Topics, ships carrying neutral cargo, or sailing in ballast (empty) between neutral ports, may be questioned, boarded and searched to check their intentions towards the blockade. A container ship with no link to Iran can still lose hours, or more, to a boarding.

Why we think a strike window is opening

The advisory did not arrive alone. On Tuesday 27 October, the Wall Street Journal reported that US officials had told several Gulf Arab governments to prepare for a “short, intense” campaign after the 3 November midterm elections. That is according to Algemeiner, which summarised the report. The report said President Trump had not made a final decision but was leaning towards a major strike on Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites.

Military movements fit that picture. Another aircraft-carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit are expected to join about 20 US warships in the region next month, though some ships may rotate out, Algemeiner reports.

Then there is what the President has said himself. At a rally in Texas he said: “You’ll see Iran in a couple of weeks.” At Joint Base Andrews, asked about strikes after the midterms, he said: “I can’t tell you that … but anything’s possible.” Both quotes are as reported by Algemeiner.

Diplomacy is still alive, but thin. Qatari mediators gave Iranian officials a seven-day framework on Sunday 25 October, according to Reuters as carried by The National. It sets out daily confidence-building steps by each side. It could start as early as next week, with several countries acting as guarantors. Tehran is expected to reply by the end of this week. One Iranian official said Iran “welcomes any efforts aimed at negotiations, talks or collective consultation.” But a senior Iranian official involved in the talks told Reuters that Doha had offered only “unacceptable ideas and not an offer,” Algemeiner reports.

Put together, we read the next three weeks as a window in which a strike is more likely than a deal. Even if a deal comes first, a seven-day trust-building plan does not make a strait safe for scheduled container ships.

How dangerous the water already is

The strait is not quiet while everyone waits. Iranian attacks on ships hit “a wartime high of almost 30 in October,” according to Bloomberg via Transport Topics. S&P Global Commodities at Sea, a ship-tracking service, cites International Maritime Organization data showing 29 attacks from 1 to 22 October. That beats every monthly total since March.

Mines are now part of the threat. On 27 October, Iran’s navy said through the state news agency IRNA that a tanker with its tracking systems switched off hit naval mines east of the strait and caught fire, Anadolu Agency reports. Iran did not name the ship, its flag, its crew or any casualties, and the claim has not been verified. The navy said the strait remains “unsafe and closed” to ships passing without coordination with Iran’s armed forces.

It was Iran’s second such claim in a week. On 20 October the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said a supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels hit a mine while using an “unauthorized southern route”, SAFETY4SEA reports. That claim is also unverified.

The US disputes the mine threat. Adm. Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command (CENTCOM), said the “primary transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz remain free and clear of Iranian sea mines”, according to S&P Global via Hellenic Shipping News.

The traffic numbers show how little is moving. S&P Global counted 17 ships through Hormuz on 24 October and 17 again on 25 October. Very large crude carriers (VLCCs, tankers that carry about 2 million barrels) made six crossings on 25 October, the most since 17 October. For scale, IMF PortWatch put the pre-crisis median at about 73 vessels a day, Insurance Business reported in August. The two counts come from different trackers, but the gap is plain: the strait is running at a fraction of normal.

Oil prices reflect the risk. Brent crude traded at about $116 a barrel early on Tuesday 27 October and around $113 later that day, according to CBS News.

Separately, Iran says it will take “legal action” against ships linked to Korean owner Sinokor from 1 November. The Korea Shipowners’ Association says the ships involved are not Sinokor-owned, Arab News reports.

What happened last time

We have seen this before. When the fighting started, container lines pulled out of the Gulf fast. On 1 March, Maritime Executive reported Maersk saying: “We are suspending all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.” MSC suspended Gulf bookings and sent ships to shelter areas. CMA CGM paused Gulf operations. Hapag-Lloyd added a war-risk surcharge of $1,500 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard box size), or $3,500 per container for reefers and special cargo.

Insurance followed. War-risk premiums are the extra cover owners buy for a single voyage through a war zone. They were “around 0.25% of hull value” before the conflict and reached “as high as 10% of hull value at their peak,” Insurance Business reported in August, citing broker Marsh. On a $150 million tanker, 10% means about $15 million for one transit, against roughly $375,000 before the war.

Carriers did not come back through the strait. They built workarounds instead. In late July, Hapag-Lloyd reopened bookings to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE using routes that avoid Hormuz, Container News reported. Cargo lands at Fujairah or Khor Fakkan, on the UAE’s east coast outside the strait. It then moves by bonded truck (sealed, under customs control) to Jebel Ali or Sharjah, about five days, and joins intra-Gulf feeder ships for onward legs. Hapag-Lloyd warned that “feeder services will not operate on a fixed weekly schedule.” Dammam and Jubail cargo still goes via Jeddah on the Red Sea and crosses Saudi Arabia by road.

What this means for forwarders in November

First, keep Upper Gulf cargo on the land bridges. Anything booked for November to Jebel Ali, Dammam, Kuwait or Umm Qasr in Iraq should assume an east-coast UAE or Jeddah discharge. Quote customers transit times that include the five-day truck leg and an irregular feeder.

Second, price in more friction. If the US does strike, we expect the east-coast UAE ports and the trucking corridors to get busier, not quieter. Storage at transhipment hubs can start before the onward leg is booked. Get rerouting and storage charges in writing before loading.

Third, warn customers about boardings. Any ship still going through Hormuz can be stopped and searched under the new advisory. That adds time even for cargo with no Iranian link. If a customer insists on a direct call, make sure the delay risk sits with them in writing.

Fourth, watch the dates. Tehran’s reply to the Qatari draft is due by the end of this week. The midterms are on 3 November. The extra US carrier group arrives next month. Each of these could move rates and space on Gulf lanes at short notice.

Our prediction

Our prediction: no major carrier restores a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026. That holds even if talks restart straight after the 3 November midterms. A US strike in the next two weeks would push that date further out. A deal would start a slow recovery, not a reopening, because insurers and carriers will want weeks of attack-free transits before they commit ships and schedules. The new advisory, with its boardings of neutral ships, makes us more confident in that call, not less.

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