Sunday, October 25, 2026
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Geopolitics Oct 25, 2026 · 8 min read

Iran declares Hormuz shut to “non-compliant” ships

Iran calls Hormuz closed, and October is already the worst month on record for ship attacks. Iran’s military chief said on 24 October that US warships will not be allowed in the Gulf “under any circumstances and at any time”. A day earlier, Iranian state TV said “non-compliant” ships had been “completely halted” in Hormuz. The Washington Institute counts 28 attacks on ships in October, a record. We think this is a declared closure now, not just a risky passage. Plan Gulf cargo on the basis that costs go up, not down. Our call: no major carrier restores a regular Hormuz service into the Upper Gulf before 1 December.

Iran has put Hormuz closure on the record, and that changes how Gulf freight should be priced

On Saturday 24 October, Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Ali Abdollahi, went on state TV with a flat line: “We will not allow U.S. military ships in the Persian Gulf under any circumstances and at any time.” The day before, Iranian state TV, quoting an unnamed source close to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Navy, said all movement of “non-compliant” vessels through the Strait of Hormuz had been “completely halted” (CBS News).

Our view is simple. Until this week, Hormuz was a dangerous passage that some ships still risked. Iran has now said, on the record, that it is closed to any ship it has not cleared, and that US naval escorts are not welcome. Whether or not every word holds up, forwarders should treat Gulf cargo as moving through a declared closure, not a short disruption. That changes how you quote, what you promise on transit time, and how much buffer you build into Gulf contracts.

Background in brief: the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February. An April truce and a June peace memorandum both failed, and the US reimposed its naval blockade of Iran after the deal broke down in July (IBTimes Australia).

What happened in the last 48 hours

Three things landed between Friday and Saturday.

First, the closure claim. Alongside the “completely halted” statement, the IRGC Navy said two supertankers “attempting to pass through an unauthorised southern route” hit naval mines, and that they were carrying “a combined total of more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil” (Gulf News). A report collected by the aggregator NewsCord said “both tankers were subsequently abandoned by their crews near the southern coast of the Strait of Hormuz.” Neither tanker was named.

The US flatly denied it. US Central Command (CENTCOM), the US military command for the Middle East, said: “Iranian claims that tankers are hitting naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz are false” (as reported by Kurdistan24, via NewsCord). President Trump went further on Truth Social: “They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else,” (CBS News). The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO), which logs incidents reported by ships, “recorded only two attacks during the same period”, on the Kuwait-flagged Al Dasma and the Liberia-flagged Soyia (NewsCord).

Second, the threat to US warships. Abdollahi’s line came on Saturday. A source close to the IRGC Navy also warned that any renewed US air action “in support of oil smuggling would be met with a direct and much more decisive response” (NewsCord).

Third, signs that a US strike may be close. US ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, asked on a podcast whether there could be a strike this weekend, said: “Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely,” (CBS News). The Wall Street Journal reported that the carrier USS George Washington was being rearmed in the Arabian Sea with standoff missiles and bunker-buster bombs (via Gulf News). Trump, however, has said any strikes would wait until after the 3 November midterms (CBS News). So the signals point both ways on timing, but the same way on direction.

There was one small opening. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, said Iran would reopen Hormuz if Washington lifted its naval blockade. He accused Trump of insisting the blockade would continue (CBS News).

The numbers behind “declared closure”

Even if you discount Iran’s mine claims, the independent counts are grim.

  • A Reuters review of IMO and MarineTraffic data found more than 30 very large crude carriers (VLCCs, supertankers carrying about 2 million barrels each) damaged in attacks. “Eleven of them were hit in October alone.” The damaged ships make up about 3.5% of the world’s supertanker fleet (via IBTimes Australia).
  • The Washington Institute, which has tracked attacks since 2017, recorded “28 confirmed and reported attacks in October and 113 since the war began”. Its analyst Noam Raydan told Reuters: “October has seen the highest number of ship attacks on record.”
  • IMF PortWatch, which tracks ship movements from satellite data, logged “four transits on Oct. 18, compared with a pre-war average of about 85 a day” (via IBTimes Australia).
  • UKMTO counted 135 conflict-related incidents as of 16 October, and says that figure probably understates the problem because reporting is voluntary (IBTimes Australia).

Markets are pricing it. Brent crude rose 3.5% on Friday to over $117 a barrel, from less than $97 at the start of October (CBS News). IBTimes Australia reports daily freight rates above $1 million.

The Gulf’s oil producers are rerouting where they can. Saudi Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser told Al Arabiya Business that the East-West pipeline’s capacity has risen from 2 million to 7 million barrels a day (CBS News). That pipeline runs across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, bypassing Hormuz. There is no such bypass for container boxes bound for Dammam, Kuwait or Umm Qasr.

What it costs to be in the Gulf

The cost of insuring a ship for the Gulf already reflects the risk. War-risk cover is a separate insurance policy for war damage, charged per voyage as a percentage of the ship’s value. Singapore’s Ministry of Transport, in a reply published on 4 August, said industry estimates as of July put war-risk cover for Hormuz transits at “3.5%-7.5% of hull and machinery value per transit”, up from 0.10%-0.25% before the war. On a ship worth $100 million, that is $3.5 million to $7.5 million for one trip.

Earlier in the war, in April, The STAT Trade Times reported Gulf container surcharges reaching $1,500 per container, and Shanghai to Jebel Ali rates rising from $1,800 to over $7,000. Those numbers are from April. We cite them as a sign of where costs went the last time risk spiked, not as today’s rates.

An environmental cost has arrived too. The tanker Gem No. 2, hit by a projectile on 9 October off Al Jazeera in the UAE, has leaked oil into a slick of about 160 sq km, according to Leon Moreland of the Conflict and Environment Observatory (CBS News). That adds clean-up risk and possible port restrictions on the UAE’s Gulf coast.

What this means for forwarders

Here is our read for anyone moving freight to or from the Gulf.

Quote with a buffer. Iran says the strait is shut. The US may strike within days. Either outcome can lift war-risk premiums and bunker (ship fuel) prices again. We would not quote Upper Gulf cargo, meaning ports north of Hormuz such as Dammam, Kuwait and Umm Qasr, without a surcharge escalation clause through November.

Expect more routing through the edges. In our view, more cargo will land at ports outside the strait, then move on by road, rail or short feeder hops (small ships that shuttle boxes between big hubs and smaller ports) to reach the Gulf. The Saudi pipeline shows producers are making the same choice for oil. More boxes landing on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea sides means longer trucking legs, more handling and congestion at those gateway ports.

Watch the sanctions list as well as the shooting. Iran’s idea of a “non-compliant” ship is defined by its own list. Lloyd’s List Intelligence reports that the Persian Gulf Strait Authority has added 43 more vessels to it, after naming 44 when it first published the list on 24 August (via NewsCord). If your cargo is on a named vessel, or a vessel linked to a named owner, expect delays, refusals or rebooking.

Don’t over-read the denials. CENTCOM and Trump may be right that some of Iran’s claims are false. But UKMTO itself says its own counts likely understate the problem. The Washington Institute’s record October count stands whichever side you believe about this week’s mines. For shippers, that means the risk is real even when a specific claim is not.

Air is the pressure valve, and it is strained too. Air India suspended flights to Riyadh and Dammam until 7 November and to Jeddah until 31 October. Akasa Air’s suspensions run to 10 and 30 November (Gulf News). Urgent Gulf cargo shifted to air will meet less belly capacity, meaning cargo space on passenger flights, on some Indian routes.

Our predictions

These are our predictions.

Brent stays above $100 a barrel through mid-November. Friday’s price of over $117 gives a $17 cushion, and nothing this weekend points to a quick fall.

No major carrier restores a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026, even if talks restart straight after the 3 November midterms. Iran’s declared closure and a US blockade that stays in place leave no clear path to a reopening in five weeks.

At least one major carrier widens or raises its Gulf war-risk surcharge to cover northern Gulf ports by the end of November.

On attacks, we expect UKMTO to record five or more incidents in and around the strait in each week up to the 3 November vote. UKMTO logged only two in the latest period around the mine claims, so this is the call most at risk. We still make it because the Washington Institute’s 28 attacks in October work out at more than six a week.

Sources