Saturday, October 24, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Oct 24, 2026 · 8 min read

Hormuz: another tanker hit off Limah, Brent at $116.72, Istanbul talks end without a plan

Brent at $116.72 as most Hormuz strikes land on the southern lane. Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday 23 October (Fox News). A day earlier a tanker was hit about 7 nautical miles northeast of Limah, Oman. UKMTO, the UK Navy’s shipping-security office, counts 79 projectile strikes since July, 57 on ships using the southern route. Our view: the southern lane is now the main target, and Friday’s Istanbul talks gave no reopening plan. Forwarders should tell customers now that November fuel surcharges will rise. Our call: Brent stays above $100 through mid-November.

The safe lane through Hormuz is now the target, and Brent has priced it at $116.72

Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday 23 October, Fox News reported. It briefly traded above $117 during the day. US benchmark WTI closed at $103.27. Analysts cited by The Maritime Executive said prices were at their highest since early May.

The trigger is the same as all autumn: attacks on ships in and near the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday 22 October a tanker was struck about 7 nautical miles northeast of Limah, on Oman’s Musandam peninsula. UKMTO, the UK Navy’s maritime security office, said it was hit by an “unknown projectile” and “was able to continue its voyage to the next port of call” (Fox News). A day earlier, another tanker was hit 11 nautical miles off Bukha, also in Musandam. That strike started a fire, and the ship is now at anchor (Times of Israel).

Our view is simple. The part of the strait that ships have been using to stay safe is now where most of the danger sits. Diplomacy has produced a meeting schedule, not a route. Forwarders should plan November as a month of higher costs and thin Gulf capacity, not as the start of a recovery.

The strikes have moved to where the ships are

In our reading, the southern route, close to the Omani coast, is the lane the remaining traffic leans on. The numbers show it is now where most attacks land.

UKMTO counts 79 projectile strikes on ships since July. Of those, 57 hit vessels using the southern route, according to The Maritime Executive. That is almost three in every four. So far this year, 119 vessels have reported damage, and 77 crew have been injured or killed.

UKMTO’s latest weekly summary listed five incidents across the Gulf and the strait, and three vessels needed help this week. The strikes off Bukha and off Limah were both on the Omani side.

Traffic has not stopped. UKMTO counted 114 outbound and 127 inbound transits in the past seven days, with a recent daily average of 25 to 35 ships (The Maritime Executive). That is 241 movements in a week.

Iran says it will hit more. Its “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” claims 40 enforcement actions and lists 122 “non-compliant” vessels it says it would target if they cross. It says it is negotiating with 19 more ships. Iran also claimed strikes on four vessels doing ship-to-ship transfers on Thursday, and said three more were disabled by mines. Those claims are not being independently verified. US Central Command says there are no mines in the strait (The Maritime Executive).

Washington disputes the scale. President Trump accused Iran of “making up fake hits” and wrote on social media: “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of oil prior to the U.S. midterm election” (The Maritime Executive). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared a chart showing crude and condensate exports through Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea recovering to about 17 to 18 million barrels a day (Fox News). Trump also told a rally in Fort Myers, Florida: “We may do another little epic fury, or they’ll agree. If they’re smart, they’ll just say, let’s get down to business.”

Our reading: whether Iran hit four ships or one on Thursday matters less than the pattern. Owners, insurers and carriers price the threat, not the confirmed count. A list of 122 named target ships is a threat they will price.

An oil slick reaches UAE beaches

The damage is now showing up on shore. The UAE’s Ministry of Climate Change and Environment closed beaches in Umm Al Quwain and told fishermen to stay away, as a large slick reached the Gulf side of the Khor Al Beidah peninsula. The closures last until technical teams finish an assessment (The Maritime Executive).

Windward, a maritime data firm, first detected the slick on Tuesday 20 October. Reports say it has spread more than 22 miles and covers over 60 square miles. UAE officials have not named the source. Several reports link it to the VLCC (very large crude carrier, the biggest class of oil tanker) Gem No. 2, a 302,783 dwt (deadweight tonnes) ship. It was struck on 9 October about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera.

For logistics, the point is not the beaches. Clean-up vessels, exclusion zones and inspections add more friction to waters that are already short of capacity. And it shows strikes on laden tankers leave a cost that lasts after the news moves on.

Istanbul gave a calendar, not a plan

On Friday, foreign ministers from the UK, France, Germany and Italy met their counterparts from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt in Istanbul (The National). They agreed that diplomacy should prevail. They called for freedom of navigation in Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea. They discussed “parameters” to stop the conflict spreading, but Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, would not give details.

Fidan said: “Military intervention is not a solution, and nobody approves this at the moment.” He added: “On the other hand, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is needed, and the attacks on Saudi Arabia shall also stop.”

France’s Jean-Noël Barrot said a new escalation “would create nothing but losers.” He said that after “very constructive discussions,” the group decided to meet regularly. He also said violations of navigation have “extremely concrete consequences for us.”

The National reported no date for the next meeting. Neither Iran nor the United States was among the eight. Nothing agreed in Istanbul changes what a ship’s master faces off Musandam next week.

Our view: this is a useful channel, and it may matter after 3 November. It is not a reopening plan. Forwarders should not quote on the basis that one is coming.

What happened to surcharges last time

There is a clear pattern from earlier this year. When crude spiked in March, carriers moved fast. Maersk announced an emergency bunker surcharge of $200 to $400 per dry container, and up to $600 per reefer (refrigerated container). It applied globally from 25 March and was reviewed every 14 days, Ship & Bunker reported. CMA CGM and MSC brought in their own.

When fighting picked up again in September, CMA CGM reset its Emergency Fuel Surcharge from 1 October. The new levels are $265 per TEU (20-foot equivalent unit, the standard container measure) on head-haul dry cargo and $320 for reefers. Back-haul and intra-regional dry cargo pay $75 per TEU (AJOT, 18 September). The carrier said: “The renewed escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb has pushed fuel prices sharply higher.”

Those October levels were set before Brent reached a five-month high. Fuel charges that are reviewed every two weeks or every month will catch up.

Analysts saw this risk early. In April, Goldman Sachs said Brent could stay above $100 for the rest of 2026 if Hormuz stayed shut another month. It put possible averages at $120 in the third quarter and $115 in the fourth (Yahoo Finance, citing a Bloomberg report on a Goldman note). Brent at $116.72 sits close to that path.

What forwarders should do now

Tell customers November fuel charges will go up. That means BAF (bunker adjustment factor, the fuel charge on sea freight) and emergency bunker surcharges on ocean bookings. It also means fuel surcharges on air freight, because jet fuel follows crude, and on trucking, because diesel does too. A short note now is easier than a surprise on the invoice.

Treat Gulf feeder space as tight. With 25 to 35 ships a day using the strait, and most strikes on the lane they use, owners have little reason to add sailings before the midterms.

Be careful with relay routes. If Gulf cargo moves through ports on the UAE’s east coast, such as Fujairah or Khor Fakkan, then by feeder, truck or tanker shuttle, check the shuttle leg. Iran says it hit ships doing ship-to-ship transfers for the Gulf states’ shuttle service. Check what war-risk cover applies at each leg, and who pays if a feeder is held or diverted.

Keep quotes short. Validity of a week or two, with fuel and war-risk charges passed through at cost, protects both sides. Long fixed-price offers into the Gulf carry risk nobody is being paid to take.

Our call

These are our predictions. Brent stays above $100 a barrel through mid-November. No major carrier restores a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026, even if talks restart straight after the 3 November midterms. At least one major carrier widens or raises its Gulf war-risk surcharge to cover northern Gulf ports by the end of November.

On attacks, we expect UKMTO to record five or more incidents in and around the strait in each week up to the 3 November vote. We are setting that bar at five, not higher, because five is what UKMTO’s latest weekly summary listed.

Sources