Geopolitics Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read

Hormuz attacks hit a record as a container ship sinks

A box ship sank in Hormuz. Gulf feeder cargo just got riskier. UKMTO, the Royal Navy’s shipping reporting centre, recorded 23 attacks on ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz since 1 October, “almost double the average” (CBS). One was the container ship GFS Pride, which sank after a strike on 13 October (Bloomberg). Our view: the danger has reached the small feeder ships that carry boxes into the inner Gulf. Before the war, war-risk insurance cost about 0.25% of a ship’s value. Brokers now quote 6% to 10% for tankers (Insurance Business). Our call: at least one major carrier adds or raises a Gulf surcharge by end of November.

Hormuz attacks hit a record. The container ships that feed the Gulf are next in line
UKMTO, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre that collects attack reports from merchant ships, has recorded 23 attacks on vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz since 1 October. CBS News reports that is “almost double the average”. At least 10 vessels were attacked between Sunday 11 October and the end of the week, which CBS calls a weekly high since the war broke out in February. Al Jazeera, also citing UKMTO, puts the count for the week ending 16 October at at least 12. The US-Israel war on Iran began on 28 February (Al Jazeera).
The worst single loss is a container ship. The GFS Pride, a Singapore-flagged feeder, was struck while transiting the strait on Tuesday 13 October, caught fire and sank. All 21 crew were evacuated without injuries (Bloomberg, via Insurance Journal).
Our view is simple. This is the week the Hormuz crisis became a container problem, not just an oil problem. Forwarders moving boxes into the inner Gulf should plan on higher costs, longer transit times and fewer options through at least the end of the year.

What happened this week

The attacks did not stop with the GFS Pride.

14 October: The GFS Giselle, a second Singapore-flagged ship from the same UAE owner, Global Feeder Shipping, was struck and suffered hull damage. It reached a safe anchorage under its own power, and none of its 22 crew were hurt (Bloomberg, via Insurance Journal).

16 October: India’s ports and shipping minister, Sarbananda Sonowal, said the crude tanker MT ST 3, with 15 Indian crew, was struck by a projectile in the strait. All were safe. He said India is “in close contact with the ship management companies to ensure the ongoing security and well-being of our crew members” (The National).

16 October: UKMTO reported a vessel struck by an “unknown projectile” off Saudi Arabia. All crew were evacuated safely (CBS).

17 October: A tanker’s master reported an attack by an RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) fired from a small boat, 78 nautical miles north-east of Jubail, in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The ship’s aft port quarter, the rear left side, was damaged (Al Jazeera).

Iran claimed the GFS Pride hit a naval mine. The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) says it was an IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard) projectile, and that it has cleared the strait of mines (Al Jazeera). The IRGC also said on Saturday that a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude caught fire after hitting a mine on an “unauthorised” route (Al Jazeera).
The two sides cannot even agree who runs the water. CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper said: “Let me be clear: The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran.” The IRGC says the strait is unsafe for ships that do not coordinate with its “Persian Gulf Strait Authority”, a body set up during the war to manage passage (Al Jazeera).

Why a sunk feeder matters more than it sounds

A feeder is a small container ship that shuttles boxes between big hub ports and smaller ports. The GFS Pride was built in 2008 and could carry 2,824 containers (Insurance Business). That is tiny next to the 20,000-plus box ships on the Asia-Europe trade. But it is exactly the kind of ship that carries cargo the last leg into ports such as Dammam, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq.
Container ship total losses are rare. Allianz Commercial counts 33 such events worldwide from 2016 to 2025, according to Bloomberg. Losing one in a single strike, and hitting a sister ship the next day, is a signal. In our view, any operator running boxes inside the Gulf now has to price in the chance of losing a ship.
The attacks are also moving. The RPG attack near Jubail put a strike deep inside the Gulf, a long way north-west of the strait itself. That widens the risk zone to cover the ports many forwarders thought were out of reach.
And the count is almost certainly too low. UKMTO says it is “struggling to accurately report” attacks, because “most ships now refuse to report them” (CBS). When the official tally runs behind reality, insurers and carriers price for the worst case.

The numbers behind the risk

Traffic is down sharply. UKMTO counted 125 outbound and 129 inbound transits over seven days (Al Jazeera). By our arithmetic that is about 36 crossings a day. Before the war, about 135 ships crossed every day, according to the analytics firm Windward, cited by Insurance Business. CENTCOM gives a much higher figure, saying 400 ships moved through the strait in the past week (Al Jazeera). The sources do not agree, and we would treat the US figure with caution until others match it.
Oil flows tell the same story. Kpler, a commodity data firm, put Hormuz oil flows at 11.6 million barrels a day in the seven days to 13 October. That is about 68% of the 17.1 million pre-war baseline (Al Jazeera). Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Friday, its first time at that level since May (Al Jazeera). Higher oil feeds straight into bunker (ship fuel) costs and then into fuel surcharges on every lane, not just the Gulf.
Insurance is the clearest price signal. War-risk insurance is extra cover a shipowner buys for a single voyage through a war zone, charged as a percentage of the ship’s value. Before the war it was about 0.25% of hull value, according to Marcus Baker of the broker Marsh. Brokers quoted by the Financial Times now put it at 6% to 10% for tankers in the region. That can reach $20 million for one supertanker voyage (Insurance Business). Neil Roberts of the Lloyd’s Market Association says cover remains “available for a price” (Insurance Business). In plain terms: you can still insure the trip, but the bill is up to 40 times what it was.

What happened last time carriers repriced the Gulf

We have seen this before, in March. When the war started, Hapag-Lloyd brought in a war risk surcharge of $1,500 per TEU (a 20-foot container) and $3,500 per reefer or special box. It applied from 2 March and was set to “remain in place until further notice” (Container News). By 12 March Maersk had added emergency freight charges of $1,800 per TEU and $3,000 per 40-foot box for several Gulf markets, and suspended most bookings to and from the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain (The Loadstar).
Shippers felt it fast. James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum, told The Loadstar: “In total, the surcharges will have more than doubled the agreed or contracted freight costs for some shipments.”
The charges did not go away. In July CMA CGM put a $1,500-per-unit peak season surcharge on cargo from the Adriatic, East Mediterranean and Black Sea to the Gulf and Red Sea (EnterpriseAM). Carriers also learned to route around the strait. In March CMA CGM reopened Gulf bookings only via multimodal routes, using bonded landbridge corridors (cargo moved overland under customs seal) through Jeddah, Sohar, Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, then on by feeder or truck (The Loadstar).
That pattern is still live. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s first sailing on their relaunched FM1 Asia-Middle East service leaves Qingdao on 17 October, due at Khor Fakkan on 16 November. Khor Fakkan sits on the UAE’s east coast, outside the strait. The carriers say they will keep monitoring regional security, and Container News reports that further changes to Gemini Cooperation services remain subject to developments across the Middle East.

What forwarders should do now

Our read for forwarders, shippers and lanes:

Inner-Gulf deliveries get harder. If feeders inside the Gulf are being hit, expect fewer feeder sailings, longer waits at hub ports and more cargo pushed onto trucks from Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Sohar or Jeddah. Trucking capacity on those corridors is finite, so slots and rates will tighten.

Quote with room. Build war-risk and emergency surcharges into quotes as separate lines, and make sure contracts let you pass them through. March showed carriers can add them within days.

Watch Saudi east-coast cargo. The Jubail attack means Dammam and Jubail are no longer a safe assumption. Ask carriers for their current position on these ports before you book.

Check the compliance angle. Iran is telling ships to coordinate with its “Persian Gulf Strait Authority”. Shippers and forwarders should check with counsel before any routing that implies dealing with an Iranian state body, given sanctions exposure.

Plan for higher fuel costs everywhere. With Brent at $110, bunker surcharges on lanes far from the Gulf are likely to creep up too.

Our prediction

The timing to watch is the US midterm elections on 3 November. CBS reports Trump said last week the US would not attack Iran before the midterms. Al Jazeera reports he has ordered the military to stay ready for bigger attacks after the vote. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar are still passing messages, but no breakthrough is expected soon (Al Jazeera).
Our call: UKMTO’s October attack count will finish above 30, and at least one of Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd or CMA CGM will announce a new or higher surcharge on Gulf cargo by the end of November 2026. We also expect war-risk premiums for tankers to stay at or above 6% of hull value through year-end. If the post-midterm window brings US strikes, we expect at least one major carrier to suspend direct inner-Gulf calls again within six weeks of the vote.

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