Monday, October 26, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Oct 26, 2026 · 7 min read

Nearly 500 ships wait outside Hormuz as Iran denies its own reopening offer

Nearly 500 ships are waiting at Hormuz, and a deal will not clear them fast. About 492 vessels were waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz on 25 October, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), as reported by Gulf News. JMIC counted 101 US-facilitated transits from 22 to 24 October. The normal rate is about 138 a day. Our view: the queue now matters more than the talks. Reports say Iran has signalled it could reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade, but Iranian media deny any offer was made. Our call: no major carrier restores a regular container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026.

The Hormuz backlog will outlast any deal, so price Gulf freight for weeks of delay

About 492 vessels were waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz on 25 October. That estimate comes from the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), the naval-run centre that tracks threats to shipping in the region, and was reported by Gulf News. It shows how much traffic is stuck behind the strait while a US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place and Iran keeps the waterway largely closed to normal traffic.

Our view is simple. The queue is now a bigger problem for Gulf freight than the diplomacy. A deal could come or not. Either way, hundreds of ships are already in line, and they will take weeks to work through. Forwarders should price Gulf bookings for long delays whatever the headlines say.

Where the ships are

JMIC’s estimate, as reported by Gulf News, puts the waiting ships in four main groups:

  • About 194 off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, on the UAE’s east coast
  • Around 178 off Dubai
  • About 55 near Musandam and Sohar
  • About 32 off Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, on the Iranian side

Gulf News added a caveat: “There was no immediate confirmation from UAE officials regarding the vessel congestion figures.” JMIC does not say how many of the 492 are container ships. We expect many are tankers and bulk carriers.

The flow through the strait is thin. JMIC counted 101 US-facilitated transits between 22 and 24 October. Its historical baseline is about 138 transits a day. By our arithmetic, that is about 34 a day, or roughly a quarter of normal. Gulf News says ships visible on AIS (the automatic identification system that broadcasts a ship’s position) moving through the waterway number “in the single digits to low double digits”.

Other trackers use different baselines. Straits.live, citing IMF PortWatch, records 4 transits on 18 October against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day. Straits.live also counted 132 AIS-visible ships holding position in its Hormuz and Gulf watch area at 21:22 UTC on 25 October. That is far below JMIC’s 492.

We think the gap is mostly a visibility problem. Many ships are switching off AIS or having their signals scrambled. Gulf News, citing Windward, reports 293 vessels affected by jamming on 21 October in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman, along with 8,487 false ship-to-ship meetings. UKMTO, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre, logged 18,049 anomalous AIS positions in its weekly overview published on 23 October. In short, no single public tracker shows the whole queue.

Why the queue matters more than the talks

Do the sums. At the pace JMIC recorded from 22 to 24 October, 492 ships would take about two weeks to pass, and that assumes no new ships join the line. Even at the full baseline of 138 a day, the backlog is three to four days of normal traffic stacked on top of normal demand.

The risk picture will slow any restart. JMIC rates the threat level as “severe” and says deliberate hostile action is “highly likely”, according to Gulf News. A liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tanker was struck by an “unknown projectile” on 22 October while sailing out of the strait, about seven nautical miles northeast of Limah, Oman. UKMTO reported no casualties. A separate attack happened west of Bukha the day before. JMIC advises ships to stay 30 nautical miles from US naval units. US Central Command said 138 commercial vessels had been redirected by 17 October.

Owners, insurers and crews will not all move on day one of a deal. Ships need war-risk cover, which is insurance for conflict zones. Crews need to accept the passage. Navies need to confirm the route is safe. Each step adds days.

The Red Sea gives no easy alternative. JMIC counted 58 transits of Bab el-Mandeb, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, between 22 and 24 October, against a baseline of about 61 a day, Gulf News reports. By our arithmetic, that is about a third of normal traffic. Cargo routed into the Gulf region via Jeddah faces its own bottleneck.

Oil markets agree that this is not close to over. Brent crude closed Friday at $116.72, up 3.14%, according to Straits.live.

The offer, and the denials

The diplomacy has a visible shape, but no confirmation. Daily Pakistan, citing Al Arabiya, wrote on 25 October that “Tehran communicated through Pakistani intermediaries”. In its account, Iran could allow shipping to resume through Hormuz “if US withdraws its naval restrictions on Iranian ports”. Daily Pakistan also cited an Associated Press report dated 24 October, saying Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, had “acknowledged Tehran’s willingness to restore shipping through the waterway under certain conditions”.

Iranian outlets pushed back the same weekend. Iran’s Mehr News Agency called the reports “a lie and fabrication”, according to Straits.live. A source speaking to Tasnim said no fresh proposal had been delivered to Pakistan, Daily Pakistan reports.

Daily Pakistan also reports that President Trump has warned he may authorise military action if diplomacy fails, possibly including strikes after the US midterm elections on 3 November. The outlet does not quote him directly.

Our reading is that a strait-for-blockade swap is now the likely shape of any deal. But public denials from Tehran, plus the threat of more strikes, mean nobody should book against it yet.

What happened last time a chokepoint jammed

The closest recent example is the Suez Canal in 2021. The Ever Given ran aground on 23 March and blocked the canal for six days. When it was freed, 422 ships were waiting. The Suez Canal Authority said all 422 had passed through by Saturday 3 April, Al Jazeera reported. That is about five days, by our count from the article’s dates.

The lesson cuts both ways. A queue can clear fast once a channel is open and safe. Suez cleared a backlog close to this size in under a week. But Suez had no mines, no missile threat, no blockade and no insurance freeze. Its ships were going through a controlled canal with a convoy system. Hormuz has none of that certainty. We expect the restart to be slower and patchier than Suez, with ships trickling through under escort before normal schedules come back.

Clearing the strait is also only half the job. In our view, when the queue moves, ships will reach Jebel Ali, Dammam and the Upper Gulf ports in bunches. That will strain berths and yards that have been running light for weeks.

What it means for Gulf bookings

For now, Gulf-bound containers move through relief gateways. DHL’s crisis page, last updated on 6 May, names Jeddah, Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Omani ports and eastern UAE ports as the key gateways. It says the main delays come during onward movement to final destinations, “often taking seven to ten days”.

Carriers have priced this in. In mid-September, Maersk added a $500 per-container Emergency Operational Cost Recovery Surcharge for UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq cargo, Seatrade Maritime reported. Tradlinx, citing Maersk’s Middle East Operational Update 46 of 11 September, listed an Emergency Freight rate of USD 1,800 per 20-foot dry box and USD 3,000 per 40-foot. It listed an extra USD 1,000 per container where a vessel transits the strait. It also listed storage in transit at USD 25 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) per day after 14 days. Maersk named Salalah and Jeddah as the main empty-return depots for affected Gulf imports. That matters for detention, the fee for keeping a carrier’s container too long.

Here is what we think forwarders should do now:

  • Quote Gulf door deliveries with at least one to two weeks of extra buffer, and say so in writing.
  • Check which port of discharge your carrier will actually use. Rerouted cargo can land at a different port from the one on the booking.
  • Read the demurrage and detention terms (charges for boxes left at the port or kept too long) at the return depot, not just at destination.
  • Do not promise customers a date tied to a reopening. Treat any deal as upside, not as the plan.
  • Watch the relief gateways. Khor Fakkan, Fujairah and Sohar are where the waiting ships sit today. They will be crowded before and after any reopening.

Our call

Our prediction: no major carrier restores a regular scheduled container service through Hormuz into the Upper Gulf before 1 December 2026. That holds even if talks restart straight after the 3 November midterms. These facts back it. The queue is about 492 ships, flow is about a quarter of normal, JMIC rates the threat as severe, and Tehran is publicly denying the one deal on the table. We see no clear path to normal schedules within five weeks. When the strait does reopen, we expect the Gulf gateways to stay congested for weeks after, as the backlog works through.

Sources