US-China talks ahead of APEC Shenzhen

Washington and Beijing are bargaining over investment. Q1 tariffs will probably just be rolled over.

Trump and Xi meet again in November, on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen. APEC is Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the yearly gathering of Pacific Rim economies. It will be the two leaders’ second meeting in two months and their third this year. Their teams are racing to have something concrete ready to sign.

On 20 October the South China Morning Post reported, citing multiple unnamed sources, that “the US and China are racing to secure concrete investment deals ahead of their leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen next month.” The same sources said negotiators had made “considerable progress on the Board of Investment discussions” since the two presidents met in Washington in September. The paper said “intense negotiations would continue in coming weeks,” and that there were still hurdles to finishing a wide package of frameworks and agreements. It gave no exact date for the meeting.

Our view, stated plainly: the deals being prepared for Shenzhen are about investment, not tariffs. Forwarders hoping for lower duties on Chinese goods should not count on this summit. The most likely tariff outcome is that the current truce is extended again, possibly for longer this time, and the rates stay where they are. The date to watch more closely is 10 November. That is when US port fees on Chinese ships are still due to come back.

What the reporting says

The SCMP story is short on numbers, and the paper’s sources are not named, so it should be read with care. Three points stand out.

First, the focus is investment. The “Board of Investment” talks are the area where sources reported progress. The story does not mention tariff cuts, soybeans, fentanyl or rare earths.

Second, the tariff question is treated as a matter of leverage, not a near-done deal. The SCMP describes both sides as engaged in “a contest over leverage in extending their broad trade agreement.” Talk of “extending” an agreement points to a rollover, not a new one.

Third, the work is not finished. Sources told the paper the package of frameworks and agreements still faced hurdles. That fits a summit that delivers a signed investment framework and a short statement on trade, not a full tariff settlement.

How the truce got here

The current arrangement is known as the Busan truce, or the “Busan Agreement.” Trump and Xi struck it in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025. According to investingLive’s summary of the terms, the US cut its fentanyl-related tariff on Chinese goods from 20% to 10%. That brought the overall US tariff burden on Chinese goods down from 57% to 47%. China agreed to buy at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025, and at least 25 million tons a year through 2028. China agreed to issue general licences for exports of rare earths and other critical minerals, and suspended export controls it had announced on 9 October. They also paused their shipping investigations and port fees on each other’s vessels for one year.

Those concessions were due to expire on 10 November 2026. On 23 September, after talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng in Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they would be extended. “We will extend what we call the ‘Busan Agreement’,” he told Fox News, adding that “that is going to be extended until January 10” (PTI, via Outlook Business). He did not hide his frustration: “There are some deliverables that have not been perfect on the Chinese side.” According to investingLive, the US believes China has not fully honoured its rare earth export commitments.

Bessent also said a bigger economic package might be agreed by January, or the current deal could simply be rolled over again. That second option matters most. It means the US side has already said out loud that a rollover is an acceptable outcome.

The SCMP’s own analysis of the September extension made a similar point. It reported that analysts saw the short window as giving businesses some certainty in the near term while raising the stakes for the next round of talks. Zhu Tian, a professor at China Europe International Business School, saw the extension as still an encouraging sign for businesses involved in China-US trade, the paper reported.

The port fee date nobody has moved

This is the part forwarders should circle. The tariff truce was extended to 10 January. The port fee pause was not.

The US Section 301 action adds fees to port calls by ships linked to China. Section 301 is the US trade law that lets Washington respond to what it judges unfair foreign practices. The fees were suspended for one year starting 10 November 2025. On 28 September, FreightWaves reported that the port-entry fees “remain scheduled to resume Nov. 10.” It also said “no formal notice extending the fee pause had been issued as of Sept. 28,” and that the truce announcement “did not automatically amend the Section 301 notice.”

The published starting rates are $50 per net ton for Chinese-owned or Chinese-operated vessels. Non-Chinese operators of Chinese-built ships pay the higher of $18 per net ton or $120 per container discharged (FreightWaves). Charges are limited to one call per vessel per rotation and five rotations a year. An August note from the shipping software firm Tradlinx pointed out that the fee schedule included step-ups. The April 2026 tier was $80 per net ton, $23 per net ton and $153 per container. The notices do not clearly say which tier would apply when fees resume, Tradlinx said.

The costs are real. Seatrade Maritime reported in August that a full year of 2026 fees would have cost Cosco and OOCL around “$1.5 billion.” Lars Jensen, chief executive of the consultancy Vespucci Maritime, wrote on LinkedIn at the time, the outlet reported: “Thus far no agreement has been seen.” He wrote that if Washington brought its fees back, China would repeat what it did last year, with its own fees on US shipping.

Our reading: both governments have reasons not to let these fees return in the weeks before a leaders’ meeting. But a reason is not a notice. Until one is published, the date stands.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

Here is how we would act on this.

Trans-Pacific contracts for Q1 2027: quote on today’s tariff levels. Add a written clause for what happens if the truce lapses on 10 January, and say who bears any new duty. A rollover is the base case, but it is not certain until it is announced.

Carrier surcharges after 10 November: ask now which carriers would pass through Section 301 port fees, at what amount, and from what date. Chinese-owned and Chinese-operated carriers are the most exposed. Get the answer in writing before the date, not after.

Booking patterns: we do not expect a big front-loading rush before 10 January. A truce that has already been extended once, plus a summit in November, gives shippers little reason to pull cargo forward. If talks visibly break down in Shenzhen, that changes quickly. Watch December bookings.

Customs and compliance: if a Shenzhen package includes investment screening or purchase commitments, the details may not affect entry paperwork directly. But they could change which goods face scrutiny. Brokers should read any published text closely, not the headline.

Our call

Our prediction: by 30 November 2026, the US and China announce an investment framework linked to the Shenzhen meeting and extend the Busan truce beyond 10 January. US tariffs on Chinese goods do not fall below the current 47% overall burden in that time.

A second, nearer call: the US port fee pause on Chinese ships is extended or suspended again by formal notice, and no material fees are collected from Chinese carriers for calls in November. If the fees are actually collected on more than a handful of calls after 10 November, we were wrong, and forwarders should expect carrier surcharges to follow within weeks.

Sources

• South China Morning Post — US-China negotiators race to nail down concrete deals as Shenzhen Apec looms, 20 Oct 2026
  • South China Morning Post — What a 2-month trade-truce extension between China and the US reveals as rifts persist, 24 Sep 2026
  • Outlook Business (PTI) — US And China Agree To Extend Trade Truce By 2 Months: Bessent, 24 Sep 2026
  • investingLive — US and China extend Busan trade truce to January 10 as Xi arrives for Trump summit, 23 Sep 2026
  • FreightWaves — No mention of U.S.-China ship taxes in trade truce, 28 Sep 2026
  • Tradlinx — What Returns on November 10 When the China Ship Fee Suspension Expires, 14 Aug 2026
  • Seatrade Maritime — USTR and China port fees could return in just 10 weeks, 28 Aug 2026