Shenzhen APEC gate-in risk and Asia air rates
A five-day hole in Shenzhen’s peak season, and no cheap way round it by air
Shenzhen’s container terminals may stop accepting export cargo from 16 to 20 November. That is the warning in Dimerco’s Asia Pac Freight Report for November, published on 3 November. The reason is the APEC leaders’ summit, which Shenzhen hosts on 18–19 November.
The wording matters. Dimerco says the summit “may” halt terminal acceptance. No port authority or terminal operator has published a notice confirming it. But Dimerco tells shippers to plan South China exports around it.
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Our view is simple. Forwarders should plan as if the stop will happen. If it doesn’t, the cost of planning was a few early cut-offs. If it does and you didn’t plan, you have boxes stuck at factories in the busiest weeks of the year. And this time air freight is not a cheap escape route. Dimerco says the US air rally has peaked, but rates are staying high and space is still scarce.
Asia–US air rates were rising sharply in mid-October. What’s new is a possible ocean stop at one of the world’s biggest export hubs, landing on top of an air market that isn’t loosening.
What Dimerco is warning about
The summit dates come from the event itself. APEC China 2026 runs 18–19 November, with Shenzhen as the main venue, according to the event’s Wikipedia entry. Xi Jinping announced Shenzhen as host on 1 November 2025. The city has already tightened local rules before the event. The same entry notes stricter e-scooter controls, with fines of up to 2,000 yuan.
Dimerco’s window, 16 to 20 November, starts two days before the summit and ends a day after it. That is five days without gate-ins. A gate-in is the moment a truck delivers an export container to the terminal so it can be loaded. If terminals stop taking boxes, factories either ship earlier, hold cargo, or truck it to another port.
In our view, the risk is not only the terminal gate. Any limits on trucks moving around the city would hurt just as much. Nobody has published the exact rules Shenzhen will use, and nobody should pretend to know them.
Air: peaked is not the same as cheap
The air side of the report is the bigger worry for anyone thinking of switching modes.
Kathy Liu, Dimerco’s VP of Global Sales and Marketing, put it plainly: “The US rally has peaked, but space isn’t opening up.” She went on: “With no freighter capacity coming before year-end, rates will settle high rather than drop”.
Dimerco says China–US air rates should ease but stay high through December. It ties the rally to AI server and electronics shipments. It names JFK and Chicago O’Hare (ORD) as under more pressure than Los Angeles (LAX). Winter schedule changes and APEC itself are cutting freighter and belly capacity, meaning the cargo space under passenger jets, before year-end. Dimerco says capacity is tightest out of Taiwan, Vietnam and Penang in Malaysia.
The data agrees. WorldACD Market Data for 12–18 October, reported by StatTimes on 26 October, showed rates from Asia Pacific to the US up 6% week on week. They were 41% higher than a year earlier. Most lanes were up 34% to 48% year on year. Singapore to the US jumped 23% in a single week. All Asia Pacific rates rose 4% week on week.
History shows how big that gap is. In week 45 of 2025 (3–9 November), WorldACD put Asia Pacific–US spot rates at $5.39 per kg, according to Air Cargo Week. That was 15% below 2024. So the 2025 base is soft, which makes a big year-on-year premium easier to hold. By our own arithmetic, a 30% premium on that week’s level would be about $7.00 per kg.
Europe looks different. Dimerco says China–Europe air is soft because new EU e-commerce handling fees from November are making online platforms cautious. The UK is the firmest European lane. Liu warns that quiet lanes “can turn fast once Christmas stocking and fuel kick in.”
Other lanes are firming. Dimerco says air rates are rising to Australia, Canada, Japan and India. Some Middle East points have suspended cargo acceptance, so it tells shippers to confirm carrier acceptance before booking. The squeeze also runs the other way. Dimerco reports backlogs on Asia-bound cargo at LAX, ORD and Toronto (YYZ). That matters for anyone moving parts or samples back to Asian factories.
Our read of all this: the air market has stopped climbing fast, but it has not turned. A peak followed by a high, flat line is still an expensive market. Shippers who waited for “peaked” to mean “cheaper” will be disappointed before Christmas.
Ocean: the squeeze has moved to short-sea
On the water, the main story is no longer the long-haul lanes.
Dimerco says intra-Asia rates out of China have hit record highs. Feeder ships, the small vessels that link regional ports, are scarce because carriers are moving them into deep-sea trades. Lanes from North China to Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia stay tight.
Ted Chen, Dimerco’s Director of Ocean Freight, said: “Everyone is watching Suez and the transpacific, but the tightest space in Asia right now is on the short-sea lanes.” His advice: “give intra-Asia bookings the same lead time as long-haul.”
Long-haul is loosening. Dimerco says 63% of Far East–Europe capacity has come back through Suez. Asia–Europe rates fell for 12 weeks before carriers pushed a GRI (general rate increase). Dimerco expects downward pressure into the 2027 contract talks.
On the transpacific, Dimerco says demand stays firm into year-end. Berth waits in Asia have eased to two to three days after Golden Week, China’s October holiday. But blank sailings, where carriers cancel a scheduled voyage, keep the risk of cargo being rolled to a later ship high.
Weather has already cost time. Typhoon Champi disrupted Shanghai and Ningbo on 24–25 October. Dimerco expects one to two weeks of knock-on delays.
Demand is behind all of this. Dimerco cites a global manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index, a survey of factory activity) of 53.0 in September. That is the highest since February 2022. Export orders grew at their fastest pace in more than five years, it says.
What forwarders should do this week
Put the pieces together and the shape is clear. Shenzhen may lose five days of gate-ins. Typhoon delays are still working through the Yangtze Delta ports. Transpacific sailings carry rollover risk. Air is expensive and tight. Regional feeder space is scarce.
That points to a few practical steps.
First, pull South China cut-offs forward. Cargo meant for sailings in the 16–20 November window should be at the terminal before 16 November. Confirm with carriers now, not after a notice appears.
Second, price a backup route. Other South China ports may be options, but they will feel any spillover first. Get trucking and port costs quoted in advance.
Third, don’t assume air is the safety valve. If a Shenzhen stop pushes urgent cargo into air, it lands on a market where space is already short and rates are well above last year. Book early out of Taiwan, Vietnam and Penang, where Dimerco says space is tightest.
Fourth, treat Southeast Asia sourcing like a long-haul move. Clients buying from Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia or Malaysia via North China need the longer lead times Chen describes.
Fifth, on Asia–Europe, keep contract talks in view. More Suez capacity and a 12-week rate slide favour shippers going into 2027 negotiations, even with a GRI on the table.
Sixth, keep US customs paperwork clean. Dimerco notes that the Court of International Trade certified a nationwide class for IEEPA tariff refunds on 8 October. Phase 3 of CAPE, the refund process, opened on 6 October for plaintiffs. Dimerco tells importers to keep their ACH banking and importer of record details up to date. A refund delayed by stale bank details is an avoidable problem for a client.
Our calls
Our prediction: Asia Pacific–US air rates will stay at least 30% above 2025 levels in every weekly WorldACD reading through the end of November 2026. Dimerco’s “peaked” is a call on direction, not on level. With no new freighter capacity before year-end, a soft 2025 base and a possible Shenzhen ocean gap pushing urgent cargo into air, we expect a plateau, not a fall.
A second call, also ours: before the end of December 2026, at least one more large forwarder will announce a dedicated or chartered freighter service out of Asia aimed at server and semiconductor cargo. Dimerco ties this rally to AI server and electronics shipments, and says no freighter capacity is coming before year-end. That gap is what such a service would fill.
Sources
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