Ocean Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read

Asia-Europe rates tick up as carrier FAK hikes take effect

Asia-Europe rates rise for the first time in 14 weeks. We don’t think the hikes will hold. Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate rose 6% to $3,522 per 40ft container on 15 October. That ended 13 straight weeks of decline. From 19 October, carriers want more: Hapag-Lloyd’s North Europe FAK (freight all kinds, the standard list rate) is $4,200, and MSC’s is $4,500. Our view is that the hikes won’t stick. Drewry itself says Suez transits are adding capacity and that making the FAKs stick is “uncertain amid increased capacity”. Our advice: treat any quote above $4,000 as something to negotiate. Our prediction: Shanghai-Rotterdam is back below $3,522 by end of November.

Carriers want $4,200 to $4,500 on Asia-North Europe. The returning Suez fleet says they won’t get it. After 13 weeks of falling rates, Asia-Europe has turned up. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) for Thursday 15 October puts Shanghai-Rotterdam at $3,522 per 40ft container, up 6% in a week. Shanghai-Genoa rose 7% to $3,945. Drewry’s global composite rose 3% to $4,485.
“After 13 consecutive weeks of decline, rates on the Asia-Europe trade route increased this week,” Drewry wrote.
The timing is no accident. From Monday 19 October, the big carriers’ new FAK rates take effect. FAK means “freight all kinds”: the standard list rate a carrier charges for general cargo with no contract. The index is moving up to meet those lists.
Our view is that this is a bounce, not a turn. Capacity on Asia-Europe is growing quickly as ships return to the Suez Canal. Rates fell for three months for that reason, and it is still true. We expect most of the FAK increase to fall away within weeks.

What the carriers are asking for

The new price lists are well above where the market trades now.
Hapag-Lloyd announced its Far East-Europe FAKs on 24 September, as reported by Container News. They apply to sailings with a tariffing date on or after 19 October, “until further notice”:

North Europe: $2,750 per 20ft, $4,200 per 40ft and 40ft high cube

West Med and Adriatic: $3,200 / $4,600

Egypt, Türkiye and East Med: $3,600 / $5,100

Black Sea, Bulgaria and Romania: $3,650 / $5,200

Container News reports that “the announced rates include the Marine Fuel Recovery charge”, and that other surcharges are added on top.
Others went higher. The Loadstar reported on 2 October that “MSC announced a new FAK of $4,500 per 40ft on both Far East-North Europe and Far East-west Mediterranean shipments”, from 19 October. CMA CGM announced $4,700 per 40ft to the West Med and $4,900 to the East Med for the same date. Drewry puts the range carriers are trying to push through at “$4,500–$4,800 per 40ft container”.
Compare that with the market. Hapag’s North Europe FAK is $678 above Drewry’s Rotterdam spot, or 19%. MSC’s $4,500 is $978 above it, or 28%. Xeneta’s Far East-North Europe spot rate was $3,645 per 40ft on 7 October. That is still several hundred dollars short of any of these lists.

Why we think the hikes fade

The best case against the increase comes from Drewry. Its own commentary says “successful implementation of these FAKs remains uncertain amid increased capacity.” It adds: “fewer blank sailings and the resumption of Suez Canal transits are adding further capacity to the route.”
A blank sailing is a scheduled voyage the carrier cancels to cut supply. Drewry counts two blank sailings on Asia-Europe next week, down from six this week. Fewer cancellations means more ships, and more ships means more space to fill. Drewry’s call for next week is that it “expects rates to remain stable.” That does not describe a market about to absorb a 19% to 28% increase.
The Suez numbers matter more. Since late 2023, attacks in the Red Sea pushed most container ships onto the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. Longer voyages tie up more ships, which takes capacity out of the market. Now that is reversing.
Seatrade Maritime reported on 14 October, citing Clarksons Research figures quoted by Bimco, that “weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 teu” in the first two weeks of October. TEU stands for twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard container measure. The same period in 2023 saw 1,457,000 TEU, so transits are back to about half of normal. From February 2024 to mid-2026, the weekly average was 141,000 TEU, about 11% of 2023 levels. Bimco’s Niels Rasmussen estimates the Cape detour raised global demand for container ships by about 10%. He says that boost “is now reducing quickly.”
Linerlytica, the consultancy, expects more. Seatrade quotes it forecasting “a full-scale return to the Suez route expected by the first quarter of 2027”, and saying “downward pressure on spot rates remains as congestion eases.” On 1 October The Loadstar (republished by gCaptain) reported that 140 boxships, just over 2m TEU of capacity, had switched from the Cape to Suez since May. Its summary: “October will see almost all global ocean carriers make a tentative return to Suez transits on Asia-Europe sailings.”
The word “tentative” is important. The Loadstar’s 13 October report notes that Red Sea risk is still unresolved even as carriers return. One serious incident could send ships back around Africa and reverse all of this. But that is a risk to plan for, not the base case.
Demand is not rescuing the trade either. The Loadstar on 13 October quoted Evergreen’s general manager Wu Kuang Hui describing the market as “strong on US routes, weak on Europe routes.”

What happened last time

This round of FAKs comes after months of decline. Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand said on 8 October: “Spot rates on the Far East to Europe trades have fallen heavily since the post-Hormuz crisis peak in July.” He added: “The Mediterranean is taking the biggest hit, down 43% since 1 July, while North Europe is down 34%.” His outlook: “rates are still elevated and the trend is still downward, so we are not at the floor yet.”
Forwarders on the ground had doubts about the 19 October lists well before they landed. A European forwarder told The Loadstar on 2 October: “We’re still receiving reductions on FAK rates for the first half of October.” He called the second-half increase “an optimistic push to keep rates up and/or slow the decline.”
Our reading is that FAK announcements on a trade with spare ships lift the index for a week or two, and then the extra capacity pushes it back down. A week earlier, on 8 October, the WCI composite had fallen 2% to $4,351, and Container News wrote that “Asia-Europe remains the more consistent source of downward pressure.” One week up does not end that.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Quotes. Don’t pass the full FAK increase on to your customers. A shipper who checks the index will see $3,522 against your $4,200 and go elsewhere. Price close to the spot market, add a fair margin, and keep quote validity to a week or two.
Carrier negotiations. Expect carriers to discount from the FAK for volume. The forwarder’s comment about cuts in early October suggests sales teams already have room. Ask for the reductions in writing, by sailing.
Med and Black Sea cargo. The list prices are highest here. Hapag’s FAK is $4,600 to the West Med, $5,100 to the East Med and $5,200 to the Black Sea, against Drewry’s Genoa spot of $3,945. The Med has also fallen furthest since July on Xeneta’s numbers. The Med gains the most time from Suez routings, so it is likely to fall fastest.
2027 tenders. European shippers are now setting next year’s contracts. Rising Suez capacity and a gap between list and spot rates both help the buyer. Use the Linerlytica forecast of a full Suez return by Q1 2027 when you discuss contract levels.
The risk case. If Red Sea transits stop again, capacity disappears quickly and rates will spike. Avoid long fixed-price commitments without a clause covering a return to Cape routing.

The transpacific contrast

The other big East-West trade looks very different, which explains why carriers are pushing on Europe. Drewry’s 15 October index has Shanghai-Los Angeles up 3% to $7,884 per 40ft. Shanghai-New York fell 1% but is still at $10,075. Drewry says: “Strong US import demand continues to support high rates.”
That gap tempts carriers to move ships from Europe to the US. But the transpacific may be peaking too. On 2 October The Loadstar reported Xeneta’s Peter Sand saying transpacific spot rates could ease over the next three months, to around $6,000-$7,000 per 40ft to the East Coast and $4,500-$5,500 to the West Coast, and said rates “will not collapse.” If the US cools as well, carriers will have fewer places to put the ships they bring back from the Cape. That adds more pressure on Asia-Europe.

Our call

We expect the 19 October FAKs to give one or two more weeks of modest gains at most. After that, returning Suez capacity takes over.
Our prediction: Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate will be back below $3,522 per 40ft by end of November 2026. No carrier’s North Europe FAK of $4,200 or more will show up in Drewry’s index before Christmas. If we are wrong, the most likely cause is a fresh Red Sea security incident that turns ships back to the Cape.

Sources