Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min read

Asia-Europe rates turn up ahead of Monday’s FAK push

Asia-Europe rates rise for the first time in 14 weeks. Monday’s FAKs will not hold in full. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October. Shanghai-Genoa rose 7% to $3,945 and Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522, the first Asia-Europe gain after 13 weeks of falls. On Monday 19 October, carriers want $4,500 to $4,800 under their FAK tariffs. A FAK (freight all kinds) is a carrier’s standard spot rate for general cargo. In our view the bounce is real, but the FAKs will not hold. Drewry calls them uncertain, because ships returning to Suez are adding capacity. Our call: neither lane reaches $4,500 by Drewry’s 29 October index.

Asia-Europe rates stop falling. Carriers want $1,000 more from Monday. We don’t think they get it
Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) rose 3% this week to $4,485 per 40ft container (FEU). Its 15 October assessment says Asia-Europe did most of the work. Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522. Shanghai-Genoa rose 7% to $3,945. Drewry said: “After 13 consecutive weeks of decline, rates on the Asia-Europe trade route increased this week.”
From Monday 19 October, carriers want much more. Their new FAK rates ask $4,500 to $4,900 per 40ft from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean. FAK stands for “freight all kinds”. It is a carrier’s standard spot tariff for general cargo, whatever the commodity.
Our view: this week’s rise marks a floor, not a turn. Asia-Europe rates had fallen far enough that some buying came back. The capacity coming back through Suez is still bigger than that demand. We expect Monday’s quotes to jump, then slide as the week goes on, and to settle well short of the FAK levels.

What the indices show

All three main indices point the same way.
Drewry’s WCI rose 3% to $4,485 per FEU. The two Asia-Europe lanes rose most. On the transpacific, Shanghai-Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884 and Shanghai-New York fell 1% to $10,075. According to Shipping Telegraph’s lane table, Rotterdam-New York fell 1% to $3,075.
Xeneta’s 16 October update gives these market-average spot rates per FEU:

Far East-Mediterranean: $4,165, up 3.2%

Far East-North Europe: $3,568, up 2.5%

Far East-US West Coast: $8,296, down 0.2%

Far East-US East Coast: $11,495, down 0.1%

North Europe-US East Coast: $2,946, up 0.8%

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, explained the Europe uptick: “This is likely the balance of supply and demand correcting spot rates that have fallen far enough.”
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose 0.42% to 3,679.58 on 16 October, its second weekly gain in a row, according to Taiwan’s United Daily News. Far East-Mediterranean rose 8.26% to $3,250 per TEU (a 20ft unit). Far East-North Europe rose 2.68% to $2,335 per TEU. The US lanes eased: West Coast fell 0.77% to $7,525 per FEU and East Coast fell 1.13% to $10,405 per FEU.
So the Mediterranean is leading, and North Europe is following more slowly. Note that all of these moves are single-digit percentages.

The gap carriers are trying to close

The 19 October FAKs ask for a jump, not a nudge.
According to The Loadstar, MSC set a FAK of $4,500 per 40ft from 19 October on both Far East-North Europe and Far East-West Med. Container News published CMA CGM’s Asia-Mediterranean and North Africa FAKs for 19-31 October:

West Med: $3,600 per 20ft, $4,600 per 40ft

Adriatic: $3,700 and $4,700

East Med: $3,900 and $4,900

Black Sea: $3,900 and $4,900

North Africa: $5,200 and $6,900

Drewry puts the range carriers are seeking at $4,500 to $4,800 per FEU.
Compared with this week’s rates, that is a lot. CMA CGM’s West Med 40ft FAK is $655 above Drewry’s Shanghai-Genoa rate, about 17% higher. MSC’s $4,500 for North Europe is $978 above Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate, nearly 28% higher. The smallest gap is on 20ft boxes to the Med. CMA CGM’s $3,600 is $350 above the SCFI’s $3,250 per TEU.
Drewry is openly doubtful. Its note says implementation of the FAKs is uncertain amid increased capacity. It also says: “Hence, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week.”

Why the capacity side wins

The ships are coming back, and that is the main reason we don’t expect the FAKs to hold. Here are the numbers that matter for rates.
Drewry says “fewer blank sailings and the resumption of Suez Canal transits are adding further capacity to the route.” A blank sailing is a voyage the carrier cancels to take capacity out. Drewry counts two on Asia-Europe next week, down from six this week. Carriers are cutting fewer sailings just as they try to raise prices.
Xeneta reports that scheduled weekly capacity through Bab el-Mandeb, the strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, reached 448,273 TEU on 5 October. That is about 48% of the August 2023 level, and it has doubled since 27 August. Stausbøll put it simply: “The return of container shipping to the Red Sea is accelerating”. She also said: “Shippers must view this latest development in Red Sea services with the highest importance”.
The consultancy Linerlytica, quoted by Seatrade Maritime on 14 October, expects the return to finish soon, “with a full-scale return to the Suez route expected by the first quarter of 2027.” Linerlytica said Asia-Europe carriers were “still attempting to raise spot rates in the second half of October”, but also that downward pressure on spot rates persists. In the same article, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen estimated that going around Africa had added about 10% to global container ship demand. He said that extra demand is now falling quickly.
The shorter route matters because it frees up ships. A Suez voyage takes far less time than going round the Cape of Good Hope, so the same fleet runs more voyages and carries more boxes. Unless demand grows to fill that space, carriers have to cut sailings or cut rates.

What happened last time

This is not the first push. In early October, The Loadstar reported that Asia-Europe spot rates “saw their twelfth consecutive week of declines”. Citing one large European forwarder, the paper said carriers were still cutting spot rates, so the chances of a mid-month hike sticking were slim. The forwarder called the second-half FAKs “an optimistic push to keep rates up and/or slow the decline”. He also noted that carriers were still cutting their first-half October FAKs at the time.
In the same report, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said: “Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse”. We agree with both halves of that. This week’s small gains show there is a floor. The capacity numbers show there is a ceiling too, and it sits below $4,500.
The pattern is familiar. Carriers announce a big FAK increase. Quotes rise on the effective date. Then carriers with space to fill discount the rate during the week. What usually survives is a fraction of the increase. When ships are being added, as they are now, that fraction is smaller.

The transpacific: high, flat, and propped up by cancellations

US lanes remain far more expensive than Europe. Xeneta’s Far East-US East Coast rate of $11,495 is more than three times its Far East-North Europe rate of $3,568. Drewry says: “Strong US import demand continues to support high rates.” It counts six transpacific blank sailings next week, the same as this week, and expects rates there “to remain less volatile next week.”
Xeneta reads those cancellations less kindly. “The telling signal is that carriers are removing capacity,” Stausbøll said. Xeneta reports 58,200 TEU blanked on Far East-US West Coast and 35,500 TEU on the East Coast that week. In our view, carriers cancel sailings to protect rates they expect to fall. Stausbøll also said “downward pressure is expected to intensify”. The Loadstar on 2 October reported Xeneta’s three-month outlook: $6,000 to $7,000 per FEU to the East Coast and $4,500 to $5,500 to the West Coast. Both are well below today’s levels.

What forwarders should do now

Our reading for the next few weeks:

Keep Asia-Europe quotes short. Give validity of a week, not to the end of the month. If Monday’s FAKs slip by Wednesday, a two-week quote at FAK level loses you the shipper or your margin.

Don’t buy at FAK level unless you must. Space should be easy to get on Asia-Europe with only two blank sailings next week. Ask for spot or NAC (named account) rates below the tariff, especially to North Europe, where the gap is largest.

Expect the Med to hold up better than North Europe. The SCFI’s 8% Med jump and Xeneta’s 3.2% suggest more pricing power there. North Africa, at $6,900 per 40ft under CMA CGM’s FAK, is a separate market. Treat it on its own terms.

Use the drop on the transpacific when talking to shippers. Rates near $10,000 to $11,500 to the East Coast sit on cancelled sailings, not strong growth. Shippers with 2027 contract talks coming up should wait before signing at today’s levels.

Prepare customers for a lower base in early 2027. If Linerlytica is right about a full Suez return by Q1, Asia-Europe contract rates for next year will be set in a market with more ships, not fewer.

Our call

We expect the 19 October FAKs to fail in full on Asia-Europe. Drewry publishes its index on Thursday 29 October. In our view it will show Shanghai-Genoa below $4,300 and Shanghai-Rotterdam below $4,000. That would mean carriers keep about half or less of the increase they asked for. On the transpacific, we expect Drewry’s Shanghai-New York rate to fall below $10,000 by mid-November.

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