Asia-Europe spot rates turn up as 2027 tenders open

Asia-Europe spot rates turn up after 13 weeks of falls. The timing points to tenders, not demand
Asia-Europe container spot rates rose this week for the first time since early July. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) for week 42 has Shanghai–Rotterdam up 6%, or $185, to $3,522 per 40ft container. Shanghai–Genoa rose 7%, or $249, to $3,945. The WCI composite, Drewry’s overall index, rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft.
One week earlier, The Loadstar reported that Asia-Europe spot rates had fallen “for the 13th consecutive week as contracting season gets under way”. This week breaks that run.
Our view is that this is mainly about price-setting. Carriers are trying to stop the slide before shippers sign 2027 annual contracts. We do not think cargo demand has turned. Forwarders should treat this week’s number as an opening offer.

What the index shows

Drewry’s lane-by-lane figures, as reported by Shipping Telegraph, show a mixed week outside Asia-Europe:

• Shanghai–Rotterdam: up 6% to $3,522
• Shanghai–Genoa: up 7% to $3,945
• Shanghai–Los Angeles: up 3% to $7,884
• Shanghai–New York: down 1% to $10,075
• Rotterdam–Shanghai: up 2% to $639
• Los Angeles–Shanghai: up 7% to $833
• Rotterdam–New York: down 1% to $3,075
• New York–Rotterdam: up 2% to $1,130

All figures are per 40ft container (FEU, forty-foot equivalent unit).
The week before, The Loadstar reported Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam figure at $3,337 and Shanghai–Genoa at $3,696. This week’s dollar gains take those lanes exactly to the new levels. So the rise is not a quirk of comparing different base weeks.
Other indices tell a similar story with smaller moves. Freightos, in its update dated 13 October and published 14 October, had its Asia–North Europe index flat on the week. Its Asia–Mediterranean index rose 7% to $3,800 per FEU. Freightos also noted that some carriers had already announced October increases. The Mediterranean leading the bounce matches Drewry’s bigger move on Genoa.

Why we read it as a tender move

Timing is the strongest evidence. Freightos says: “Shippers and carriers on these trades are now entering tendering season for 2027’s annual ocean contracts.” It says that last year carriers cut capacity and pushed fourth-quarter general rate increases (GRIs, across-the-board price rises) to set a higher benchmark for those talks. We think the same pattern is starting now.
The carriers’ own price targets support this. On 2 October The Loadstar reported new FAK rates effective 19 October. FAK means freight all kinds, a carrier’s standard spot tariff for general cargo. MSC set $4,500 per 40ft for Far East–North Europe. CMA CGM set $4,700 per 40ft to the west Mediterranean and $4,900 to the east Mediterranean.
Compare those targets with where the market is. After this week’s rise, Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam figure is still $978 below MSC’s level. Shanghai–Genoa is $755 below CMA CGM’s west Mediterranean level. The index is moving toward the targets, but slowly.
The market was sceptical from the start. A European forwarder told The Loadstar on 2 October: “My feeling is it’s an optimistic push to keep rates up and/or slow the decline.” That forwarder pointed out that carriers were still cutting their first-half October rates at the time.
Prices below the index tell the same story. The Loadstar reported on 9 October that “unsolicited rate quotes from Chinese forwarders seen by The Loadstar this week were offering $2,650 per 40ft”. Those quotes were for cargo from China to Felixstowe and Southampton in the UK. That is almost $900 below this week’s Drewry figure for Rotterdam. Published indices track a broad market average. Real deals for flexible cargo are already being done well under that average. When forwarders are discounting this hard to fill space, a carrier price rise has little to hold it up. We expect the gap between quoted FAK levels and what cargo actually pays to stay wide through the tender period.
Demand data also gives no sign of a recovery. Freightos says Asia–Europe rates have fallen steadily since July. It names carriers’ gradual return to Red Sea routings since June as one factor, and weaker post-peak demand as the larger one.

How high rates still are

Rates have fallen a long way, but they remain high. Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand said on 8 October: “Spot rates on the Far East to Europe trades have fallen heavily since the post-Hormuz crisis peak in July.” He added: “The Mediterranean is taking the biggest hit, down 43% since 1 July, while North Europe is down 34%.”
Even after those falls, Freightos says Asia-Europe prices are “more than $3,000/FEU on both lanes” and “about 70% higher than they were last year”. Freightos adds that this level works in carriers’ favour even without further increases.
Last year offers a useful comparison. On 21 November 2025, The Loadstar, republished by gCaptain, reported Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam figure at $2,193 after an 8% rise. Carriers were then pushing December FAK rates of $3,100 to $4,000 to lift spot prices before contract talks. This year’s spot rate is already $1,329 above that November 2025 figure and inside last year’s target range.
Sand does not think the decline is over. The Loadstar quoted him on 9 October: “The pace of the decline has eased a little, but rates are still elevated and the trend is still downward, so we are not at the floor yet.”

Suez, capacity and the case against the rise

Ship availability is the main pressure on these rates. When Asia–Europe ships go through Suez instead of around Africa, each voyage is shorter. The same fleet can then carry more boxes, which adds effective capacity.
Drewry has said that “the faster-than-expected return to the Suez route remains the biggest threat to carrier efforts to support rates”. The Loadstar reported this on 9 October.
Freightos says newbuild deliveries next year, plus a possible further Red Sea return, have some shippers expecting rates to ease in 2027. Those shippers are “hesitant to lock in annual rates at current levels”.
Some factors still work for carriers. Freightos says port congestion in Northern Europe and the Far East is partly propping up rates. It also warns of security risk. Freightos describes recent Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport as marking “another serious escalation of the Saudi – Houthi conflict”. It says this may increase the likelihood of renewed Red Sea strikes. If ships divert from the Red Sea again, effective capacity falls and our view would change.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

For short-term business, quotes for late-October Asia–Europe sailings may firm. Carriers will point to this week’s index. A one-week rise backed by a new FAK level is often enough to stop discounting for a sailing or two. Book space for urgent cargo now, not after the next increase date.
For 2027 tenders, do not let this week become the benchmark. This rise came after 13 weeks of falls and a Golden Week holiday that lowered Chinese exports. It is a weak base for a 12-month price. Shippers who sign while carriers are holding up the market will carry that price through a year in which, Freightos says, some shippers expect rates to ease.
Watch the extras as well as the base rate. Drewry’s Chantal McRoberts, speaking on a Journal of Commerce webinar reported by The Loadstar, said: “It’s the surcharges that are causing the biggest consternation.” She pointed to inflated fuel charges and pre-peak-season surcharges, and said shippers should put guardrails around contract rates. Forwarders building NVOCC contracts should cap or index surcharges where they can. An NVOCC is a non-vessel-operating common carrier: a forwarder that issues its own bills of lading.
The transpacific needs separate handling. Drewry has Shanghai–Los Angeles up 3% this week. Freightos has its Asia–US West Coast index down 2% to $8,150. Freightos cites a National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast that US import arrivals in November will be 11% lower than in October, “suggesting that peak season is finally coming to an end”. We would quote transpacific November business on short validity until those two indices agree.

Our prediction

This is our call, not a forecast from any of the sources above. We expect some of the Asia–Europe increase to hold for the rest of October. We do not expect the 19 October FAK levels to stick.
Specifically, we expect Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam figure to stay below $4,000 in every weekly print through the end of November. We expect it to be lower in the first week of December than this week’s $3,522. One thing would change this: renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping that send Asia–Europe services back around Africa.
For tender negotiators, that means the price shown this week is likely to be the highest Asia–Europe spot level of the quarter.

Sources

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• Shipping Telegraph — Drewry: The World Container Index increased 3% this week 42-2026, 16 Oct 2026 \
• The Loadstar — Post-peak spot rates tumble as ocean carriers eye price increases, 9 Oct 2026 \
• The Loadstar — Transpac spot rate climb takes a holiday as Golden Week arrives, 2 Oct 2026 \
• Freightos — Attacks disrupt Saudi air cargo; China-Europe air rates slump – October 13, 2026 Update, 14 Oct 2026 \
• Xeneta — Weekly Ocean Container Shipping Market Update, 8 Oct 2026 \
• gCaptain (The Loadstar) — Carriers Push December FAK Increases as Asia–Europe Demand Holds, 21 Nov 2025