Asia-Europe spot rates turn up after 13 weeks as carriers push 19 October FAK increases

Asia-Europe spot rates rise after 13 weeks. The 19 October FAK hikes are a tender-season opening bid, not a new floor
Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on Thursday 15 October. Asia-Europe did the lifting. Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522 per 40ft. Shanghai–Genoa rose 7% to $3,945. Drewry put it plainly: “After 13 consecutive weeks of decline, rates on the Asia-Europe trade route increased this week.”
Carriers want to build on that. From Monday 19 October they are filing FAK rates of $4,500–$4,800 per 40ft on Asia-Europe, according to Drewry. FAK means freight-all-kinds: the standard spot tariff a carrier charges for general cargo, before any negotiated discount.
Our view: the rebound is real but small, and the 19 October numbers are an opening bid for 2027 contract talks, not a level the market will pay. We expect most of the increase to be discounted away before the end of the month.

What moved this week

Start with the indices.
On Drewry’s WCI, the composite rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft. Shanghai–Rotterdam was up 6% at $3,522. Shanghai–Genoa was up 7% at $3,945. On the transpacific, Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884 and Shanghai–New York slipped 1% to $10,075. Drewry said “strong US import demand continues to support transpacific rates”, as The Loadstar reported.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), published Friday 16 October, pointed the same way. Its composite rose 0.42% to 3,679.58, a second straight weekly gain, Taiwan’s Economic Daily News reported. Far East–Mediterranean jumped $248, or 8.26%, to $3,250 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit, a standard 20ft box). Far East–Europe rose $61, or 2.68%, to $2,335 per TEU. US lanes eased: the West Coast fell 0.77% to $7,525 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit) and the East Coast fell 1.13% to $10,405 per FEU.
So two indices, measured differently, agree. Europe and especially the Med are firming from a low base. The US trades remain far higher in dollar terms but are drifting down.
Drewry’s explanation for the bounce is timing. It said the market recovered after China’s Golden Week holiday as cargo started flowing again.

What carriers are asking for

The Loadstar’s 16 October report gives the carrier detail for 19 October:

• Hapag-Lloyd: $4,200 per 40ft to North Europe and $4,600 to the Mediterranean.
• CMA CGM: $4,600 to North Europe and $4,700 to the Mediterranean, valid to 31 October.
• MSC: $4,500 to both North and South Europe, valid to 31 October.

Now set those against the spot market. Drewry has Shanghai–Rotterdam at $3,522. MSC’s $4,500 is nearly $1,000 above that, about 28% higher. CMA CGM’s $4,600 is about 31% higher. Even Hapag-Lloyd’s lower $4,200 is about 19% above. To the Med the gap is smaller: CMA CGM’s $4,700 is about 19% over Drewry’s Genoa figure of $3,945.
That gap is the story. A week after the first rise in three months, carriers are asking for a jump of a fifth to a third. Drewry itself is careful. It said carriers are trying to push rates through, but that it is uncertain whether they will hold. Its own outlook for the lane: “Hence, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week.”
The validity dates matter too. MSC and CMA CGM have both capped the new rates at 31 October. One forwarder told The Loadstar: “One useful indicator is when you see carriers place a time limit on the validity of their FAK pricing.” The forwarder’s point was that a short shelf life often means carriers expect the market to soften.

Why we doubt the hikes will stick

Three things argue against the full increase holding.
First, demand. A European forwarder told The Loadstar: “We’re not seeing any noticeable increase in demand – it’s all still a bit flat in that respect.” In our view, the Golden Week bounce is a backlog clearing, not new orders arriving.
Second, capacity. Carriers are not cutting much. Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker, updated 16 October, counts 44 blank sailings out of 713 scheduled on the main East–West trades for weeks 43 to 47 (19 October to 22 November). A blank sailing is a scheduled voyage the carrier cancels to take space out of the market. Forty-four is a 6% cancellation rate, so 94% of sailings are expected to run. Asia–North Europe/Med carries 44% of those cancellations, or roughly 19 sailings over five weeks. Drewry’s WCI note says Asia-Europe blank sailings drop from six this week to two next week. MSC is pulling its Britannia loop between Asia and North Europe in weeks 45 and 46, citing “ongoing market challenges”, The Loadstar reported. That is a targeted cut, not a broad one.
At the same time, ships are starting to come back through the Suez Canal. Drewry says those resumed transits are adding effective capacity on Asia-Europe, because shorter voyages free up vessels. The return and its risks are a separate story. For rates, the point is simple: more usable ships on the lane, with demand flat, is not a recipe for a 30% spot rise.
Drewry summed up the tension in its tracker: “Freight rates are finding their footing, but how long can the recovery hold?” It added that with carriers weighing rate rises against softer seasonal demand and rising capacity, “the sustainability of the recent rebound remains uncertain.”
Third, reliability, which cuts both ways. Jon Charles, head of product at WiseTech, told The Loadstar: “On Asia–Europe, the challenge we foresee is reliability rather than space.” WiseTech data shows only 9.9% of Asia-Europe shipments arrived on time in September, and delays of eight days or more now account for almost half of volume. Space is not scarce. Schedules are. That weakens carriers’ pricing power on the spot market, though it does make dependable allocation worth more.

What happened last time

This pattern is familiar. In November 2025, carriers pushed mid-month FAK increases on Asia-Europe and then filed a December round of $3,100 to $4,000 per 40ft, effective 1 December. Some of the mid-November rise did show up in the index: Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 8% to $2,193, The Loadstar reported via gCaptain. But before December even started, one freight buyer said MSC had already trimmed its December increase.
Around the same time, Chinese outlet Jiemian reported that early-November FAK hikes on the transpacific had reversed quickly when volumes fell short. One logistics executive told it: “Carriers can raise FAKs, but only real cargo will determine whether the increases hold.”
The lesson from last year: carriers usually get some of an FAK increase, rarely all of it, and the gap between filed and paid opens fast when demand is flat. The difference this year is the starting level. Shanghai–Rotterdam at $3,522 is about 60% above the $2,193 Drewry printed in mid-November 2025. Carriers are pushing from a much higher base, which leaves less room for shippers to absorb another leg up.
Analysts were already calling the top on other lanes. On 6 October Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand said of US-bound trades: “Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse,” FreightWaves reported. Xeneta had Asia–North Europe at $3,726 per FEU that week, down 2.1%, and noted that Europe rates had been falling since early July.

What this means for forwarders

Annual tenders are the bigger prize. Drewry flags that 2027 contract negotiations on Asia-Europe/Med are starting now. A carrier that can print $4,500 on the spot market, even briefly, has a higher reference point when it sits down with a shipper’s procurement team. That is why we read 19 October as a tender-season signal as much as a spot-market move.
For forwarders, that suggests a few practical steps:

• Quote Asia-Europe spot business with short validity, matched to the carriers’ 31 October cut-off. Don’t commit to customers past the date your carrier has committed to you.
• Pass through the increase only where the carrier actually charges it on the booking. Expect discounts off FAK, especially with MSC and CMA CGM, as the end of the month nears.
• Treat the Med differently from North Europe. Both indices show the Med rising faster: 7% on Drewry’s Genoa, 8.26% on the SCFI Med. If any increase sticks, it is likelier there.
• In 2027 tender work, use the indices, not the FAK sheets, as the benchmark. Drewry’s Rotterdam figure is about $1,000 below the headline FAK.
• Sell reliability, not just space. With fewer than one in ten September Asia-Europe shipments on time, by WiseTech’s count, customers with tight delivery windows will pay for buffer stock planning, alternative routings and close tracking.

On the transpacific, the picture is different. Rates remain very high, with Shanghai–New York above $10,000 per 40ft on Drewry. Drewry expects them “to remain less volatile next week”, and six blank sailings are planned again. Forwarders with US-bound freight should expect a slow drift lower rather than a sharp break, in line with Xeneta’s view.

Our call

We think the 19 October FAK increases will be largely discounted away. Our prediction: Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam rate will stay below $4,000 per 40ft in every assessment through the end of October, well short of the $4,500 MSC is asking. We expect carriers to file a fresh round of FAKs for 1 November once the current ones expire, and we expect the Mediterranean to keep outperforming North Europe through mid-November. If Asia–North Europe blank sailings stay near this week’s light level, we expect Shanghai–Rotterdam to be back below $3,500 by the end of November.

Sources

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• Drewry — World Container Index, 15 Oct 2026 \
• Drewry — Cancelled Sailings Tracker, 16 Oct 2026 \
• The Loadstar — Carriers eye FAK hikes as spot decline eases and capacity stays tight, 16 Oct 2026 \
• Economic Daily News — SCFI rises for a second week (Chinese), 16 Oct 2026 \
• FreightWaves — Xeneta: US-bound container rates peak, but sharp collapse unlikely, 6 Oct 2026 \
• gCaptain (The Loadstar) — Carriers push December FAK increases as Asia–Europe demand holds, 21 Nov 2025 \
• Jiemian — Carriers push early FAK hikes on Asia–Europe lanes as market stays weak, Nov 2025