Wednesday, November 11, 2026
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Ocean Nov 11, 2026 · 7 min read

Suez traffic back at scale as Asia–Europe spot rates slide

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Suez is earning again, and Asia–Europe shippers are the ones getting the discount

The Suez Canal earned $724m in October 2026. That is 94% more than the $373m it took a year earlier. It is the highest monthly figure since the Red Sea crisis began in late 2023, according to Suez Canal Authority data reported by The Middle East Observer on 10 November.

Ships are coming back with the money. October transits rose 32% to 1,490, from 1,128. Net tonnage rose 86% to 88m tonnes, from 47m.

On the same day, Freightos reported that spot rates from Asia to North Europe fell 5% in a week, to $3,400 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit, a standard 40ft container). Carriers had announced price rises for 1 November. Freightos says they seem to have abandoned them.

Our view is simple. The return of Suez is now the main thing setting Asia–Europe prices, and it is pushing them down. The canal is not fully back yet. That means the downward pressure has further to run.

What the canal numbers show

The headline revenue number needs one caveat. Part of the jump is pricing, not just traffic. The Middle East Observer calculates average revenue per transit at about $486,000, up roughly 47% from $331,000. A temporary 12% surcharge on container ships has been in force since July. The authority has not said how much of October’s increase came from that surcharge rather than more ships and more tonnage.

Even so, the volume story is clear. Tonnage grew much faster than transits, 86% against 32%. In our reading, that means bigger ships are back on the route, not just more of them.

The big carriers are a large part of that. The Middle East Observer reports 276 Maersk-affiliated transits in January to September, against 146 a year earlier. Evergreen has also come back. Its Ever Eon, a ship that can carry 16,556 containers, transited on 8 November on Ocean Alliance’s NEU7 service from the Netherlands to Singapore. It was Evergreen’s first Suez transit in nearly three years. The canal authority says Evergreen intends to restore more sailings.

It helps to remember how far the canal fell. Its annual revenue dropped from a record $10.25bn in 2023 to $3.99bn in 2024, The Middle East Observer reports. A $724m month is a sign that the route is earning like a main artery again, not a fallback. The paper also makes a sharp point about what comes next: “the decisive test is no longer the return of individual vessels.” In our view, that test is now whole networks running on the canal week after week.

Freightos puts the wider picture at about two-thirds of pre-crisis Suez traffic, as reported by SupplyChainBrain on 10 November. Almost all major carriers have resumed Asia–Europe routes through the Red Sea. ZIM is the only container line still avoiding it, and its arrangement with MSC lets its cargo go that way anyway.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, summed it up during the firm’s November outlook update: “It’s a significant return.”

Why rates are falling

The link between the canal and the rate is about time. Sailing around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10–12 days to a typical Asia–Europe voyage, SupplyChainBrain reports. When ships go back through Suez, each one completes its round trip faster. The same fleet then offers more sailings each month. That is extra capacity without a single new ship being built.

The rate data shows the effect. Freightos’s 10 November update gave these weekly moves on its FBX index (the Freightos Baltic Index, a daily spot price benchmark):

  • Asia–North Europe: down 5% to $3,400 per FEU.
  • Asia–Mediterranean: down 1% to $4,300 per FEU.

On the price rises, Freightos wrote: “Carriers seem to have abandoned November 1st GRI hopes for Asia – Europe lanes as well”. A GRI is a general rate increase, a price rise that carriers announce to customers in advance. Carriers also file FAK rates, short for freight all kinds, the standard rate for general cargo. In our view, November FAK filings on this trade are unlikely to fare any better than the GRIs.

Drewry’s World Container Index tells a similar story, though it moves on a different weekly cycle. Its 5 November reading had Shanghai–Rotterdam at $3,615 per 40ft, down 2%. Shanghai–Genoa was flat at $4,166. The composite index, an average across eight major routes, was down 1% at $4,389. Drewry wrote then: “Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week.” The Freightos North Europe drop in the week to 10 November suggests the next Drewry reading will be weaker than stable on that lane.

Rates are still not low. Freightos says North Europe prices are up 50% year on year and Mediterranean prices are up 88%. Shippers have not yet seen the full benefit of the shorter route. That is the point. There is room to fall.

The spike that didn’t come

A year ago, analysts warned that a Suez return could push rates up before it pulled them down. In December 2025, ICIS reported Levine saying: “This return to the Suez could create a push then pull for container rates”. He added: “We will likely see a short-term rate spike as congestion grows, followed by significant downward pressure”.

The worry was bunching. Ships arriving a week or more early would pile up at European ports that were already busy. Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime told ICIS that a return “will indeed temporarily lead to substantial congestion and disruption in especially Europe”. In the same piece, Levine estimated that more than 2m TEU, about 9% of global container capacity, would be released once schedules settled. Peter Sand of Xeneta warned that a large return could cause rates to plummet unless carriers idled ships, scrapped them, slowed down or cancelled sailings widely.

So far, the push has not shown up. Levine now says congestion is not significant, because the return has been gradual, SupplyChainBrain reports. Carriers came back one service at a time over many months, not all at once. That spared European ports the pile-up. It also means the pull, the downward pressure on rates, is arriving without a spike in front of it.

In our view, that is the pattern to plan around. A slow return gives carriers less chance to blame congestion for higher prices. It leaves the capacity effect to do its work.

What forwarders should do now

First, update transit times. If your carrier is back on the Suez routing, Asia–Europe transits should be 10–12 days shorter than on the Cape. Quote that to customers, and check each service. ZIM’s own ships are still avoiding the Red Sea, and not every service has switched.

Second, check the surcharges. Many lines added charges during the Cape diversion. As services return to Suez, ask which of those charges still apply and why. On the other side, the canal’s 12% temporary container surcharge is a real cost that carriers may pass on. Watch for it appearing as a separate line.

Third, keep spot quote validity short on Asia–Europe. With GRIs failing and the index falling, a quote held for a month is likely to be above market by the time the cargo moves.

Fourth, be careful about locking in. Contract talks for 2027 are coming. In our view, shippers who sign long-term Asia–Europe rates now, before the last third of Suez traffic returns, risk paying above where the market lands.

Fifth, keep a contingency plan. The return depends on security. SupplyChainBrain notes that Houthi rebels have renewed threats against Red Sea shipping, even as their recent attacks have shifted to targets deep inside Saudi Arabia. The Middle East Observer puts it plainly: “Red Sea security remains critical to sustaining the recovery.” A single serious attack on a container ship could send carriers back to the Cape and reverse the rate trend within weeks.

Our call

We expect Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam rate, at $3,615 on 5 November, to fall below $3,522 per 40ft by its week-47 reading, published around 19 November. We expect Shanghai–Genoa to stay below $4,500 by the same reading. We do not expect November FAK filings on Asia–Europe to be realised. We expect Drewry’s composite WCI to stay below $4,485 through late November.

Our reasoning is that the Freightos North Europe reading fell 5% in the week to 10 November, and nothing in the market is pulling the other way. Carriers appear to have given up on their November increases. Congestion has not appeared. The capacity released by shorter voyages is still building.

The risk to that call is security, not demand. If the Red Sea stays quiet, we think Asia–Europe spot rates keep drifting lower as the remaining third of Suez traffic comes back.

Sources

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