Ocean Oct 20, 2026 · 7 min read

Container rates stop falling, but the Asia–Europe bounce looks borrowed

Asia–Europe rates rose 6%. We don’t think it lasts. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), a weekly average of spot prices for a 40ft box, rose 3% to $4,485 on 15 October. It was the first rise after three weekly falls. In our view this is a pause, not a turn. Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522, but this came after 13 straight weeks of decline, and carriers cut Asia–Europe blank sailings from six to two this week. Shanghai’s SCFI index barely moved, up 15.47 points. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam is back below $3,522 by Drewry’s week-47 reading in late November. Book Europe cargo spot and keep contract offers short.

Container rates have stopped falling. Don’t mistake the Asia–Europe bounce for a recovery
Container spot rates have stopped going down, for now. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on Thursday 15 October. The WCI is a weekly average of spot prices on eight main east–west routes. This was its first gain after three weekly declines. Drewry said the rise came “mainly due to an increase in rates on the Asia-Europe trade route.”
Our view is that this is a pause, not a turn. The two big trades are moving for different reasons. On the transpacific, real US import demand is holding rates high. On Asia–Europe, carriers are pushing prices up at the start of 2027 contract season, while capacity grows and Suez routings come back. The first trade has support. The second, in our view, is borrowing strength it does not have.

What moved this week

Drewry’s lane numbers for 15 October:

Shanghai–Los Angeles: up 3% to $7,884 per 40ft

Shanghai–New York: down 1% to $10,075

Shanghai–Rotterdam: up 6% to $3,522

Shanghai–Genoa: up 7% to $3,945

For Asia–Europe, Drewry put it plainly: “After 13 consecutive weeks of decline, rates on the Asia-Europe trade route increased this week.”
The Shanghai figures barely moved. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is published every Friday by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. On 16 October it rose 15.47 points to 3,679.58, about 0.4%, according to a Xinhua Finance digest on Eastmoney. The broader China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose 0.5% to 1,922.64.
So the market looks steady. A 3% move in one index and a 0.4% move in another do not make a rally.

The Asia–Europe rise is a push, not a pull

The real story is on Asia–Europe. The fall there has been long and deep. On 24 September, Xeneta’s spot rate for Far East–North Europe stood at $3,945 per 40ft, down 28.7% since 1 July. Far East–Mediterranean was $4,369, down 37.8% over the same period, according to Xeneta data reported by Cyprus Shipping News. In early October, Drewry had Shanghai–Rotterdam at $3,399 and Shanghai–Genoa at $3,702, with Asia–Europe in its 12th straight weekly fall, The Loadstar reported.
Then carriers acted. MSC set a $4,500 FAK rate for Far East–North Europe and Far East–West Mediterranean from 19 October. FAK means freight all kinds, a carrier’s standard price for general cargo. CMA CGM set $4,700 for the West Med and $4,900 for the East Med from the same date, The Loadstar reported. Drewry describes carriers pushing FAK levels of $4,500 to $4,800 from 19 October.
A FAK announcement is a request. It is not a price anyone has paid yet. And this week the supply side is moving the wrong way for carriers. Drewry notes that Asia–Europe blank sailings fall from six to two this week. A blank sailing is a cancelled voyage, and fewer of them means more ships and more space. Drewry calls implementation of the higher FAK rates uncertain for that reason, and says it “expects rates to remain stable next week.”
Logistics platform Cello Square reads the market the same way. In its 16 October update it wrote that “a rebound in N. Europe is limited despite late-October rate increase attempts”. It expects “continued downward pressure from weak demand and growing available capacity” on North Europe and the Mediterranean as vessels return to Suez.
The Suez point matters. Carriers have been bringing services back through the canal since the summer. Sailing via Suez instead of around Africa cuts days off each Asia–Europe voyage, so the same fleet can carry more boxes per year. In August, MSC restored Suez transits on several east–west services, joining Gemini Cooperation and the Ocean Alliance in a cautious return, The Loadstar reported. Industry consultant Lars Jensen told the outlet: “At this pace it might be reasonable to see a normalisation by end-2026.” Every service that returns releases capacity into a trade where demand is already soft.
So the Asia–Europe bounce rests on carrier pricing discipline and timing. There is a reason to push now. Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker lists “the start of 2027 contract negotiations” among the forces shaping the market. Carriers want a higher spot benchmark on the table when annual tenders open. In our view, that is what this rise is mostly about.

The transpacific is different, and steadier

The transpacific story is simpler. Prices are high and holding. Drewry says “Strong US import demand continues to support high rates,” and it expects transpacific rates “to remain less volatile next week.” Six transpacific blank sailings are announced for this week, unchanged from last week, which points to stable capacity.
This high plateau follows a sharp climb. On 24 September, Xeneta had Far East–US West Coast at $8,255 per 40ft, up 18.4% since 1 July, and Far East–US East Coast at $11,445, up 30.7%. In early October, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand told The Loadstar the market “has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026.” Since then, prices have flattened at a high level instead of falling away.
Forwarder quotes match the indices. In a market report published on 20 October via Stacker, Los Angeles forwarder Freight Right put the standard China–US West Coast rate at about $8,000 per 40ft. Multi-container commitments get $6,900 to $7,000, and the lowest spot it found was $6,400. China–US East Coast is above $9,000 standard, about $8,450 blended for higher-volume bookings, and $8,129 at the lowest. Freight Right said “this week’s discussion does not confirm a new ocean rate increase.”
Space is the catch. Freight Right warned: “Paying the current market rate does not guarantee priority loading or an on-time departure.” It also cautioned that “Limited availability does not necessarily indicate stronger overall demand.” Cello Square expects US West Coast and East Coast rates to be flat to slightly lower.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

First, blank sailings will shape the next five weeks more than demand will. Drewry counts 44 blank sailings out of 713 planned between week 43 (19–25 October) and week 47 (16–22 November). That is a 6% cancellation rate. Asia–North Europe and the Mediterranean account for 44% of those cancellations, the transpacific eastbound 36%, and the transatlantic 20%. Drewry says that “the sustainability of the recent rebound remains uncertain.”
Second, expect space and price to come apart. On weeks where a loop is blanked, cargo will roll, even on trades where rates are drifting down. Forwarders should check cancellation lists for each booking. A cheap rate on a sailing that does not leave is worth nothing. Book a back-up on a second carrier for time-sensitive cargo.
Third, Europe-bound shippers have the leverage, and they should use it carefully. If you are quoting Asia–North Europe or Med for November, we would not lock in at the 19 October FAK levels. Price close to the current Drewry spot level, around $3,500 to $4,000. Keep validity short so you can follow the market down. For 2027 tenders, the carriers’ opening number will lean on this month’s rise. Push back with the July-to-October fall: more than a quarter off on North Europe and more than a third off on the Med, per Xeneta.
Fourth, transpacific shippers should plan around high, stable rates rather than relief. Lock in volume commitments where the $6,900 to $7,000 multi-container level is on offer. A rate that holds is worth more right now than waiting for a drop that the indices do not yet show.
Fifth, watch the Suez timetable. Each Asia–Europe loop that switches back through the canal adds capacity. It may also cause short-term bunching at North European and Mediterranean ports, as ships arrive earlier than old schedules assumed. Drewry lists “evolving port congestion” among the risks.

Our call

These are our predictions, not facts. The Asia–Europe rise does not hold. By Drewry’s week-47 reading, published around 19 November, we expect Shanghai–Rotterdam to be back below this week’s $3,522. We expect the $4,500-plus FAK levels from 19 October to have failed to stick. We also expect at least one more round of carrier FAK announcements for 1 December, timed to tender season, which will meet the same resistance.
On the transpacific, we expect Shanghai–Los Angeles to stay between $7,000 and $8,500 per 40ft through the end of November, with no general rate increase (GRI) that sticks before December. The composite WCI should drift lower over the same period, dragged by Europe. We expect it to sit below $4,485 by late November.
If we are wrong, it will be because carriers blank far more Asia–Europe sailings than the 44 now scheduled across all three trades. That is the number to watch.

Sources