Geopolitics Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read

Drones reach the Black Sea’s safe water

Black Sea drones now hit ships inside NATO waters. At least seven cargo ships were hit by drones off Romania and Bulgaria this month, with two dead and at least 25 missing, AP reports. On 17 October Romanian F-16s shot down two more drones over Romanian waters (Reuters). Our view: the coastal strip that insurers treated as safe is no longer safe. In September, London’s Joint War Committee left Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters out of its high-risk zone. AP says one of this week’s fires was inside Romania’s territorial waters. We expect extra war-risk premiums on Constanța and Danube calls within six weeks.

Drones have reached the one part of the Black Sea insurers called safe
At least seven cargo ships have been hit by drones in the Black Sea this month, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria. That is the count from the Associated Press on 16 October. AP says two people have died and at least 25 are still missing. A day later, on Saturday 17 October, Romania’s defence ministry said its F-16 fighter jets had shot down two drones over Romanian territorial waters. Reuters reported the drones entered Romanian waters “at 1459 GMT and 1501 GMT, respectively.” The ministry did not say where they came from.
Our view is simple. The danger for freight is no longer out at sea. It has moved to the coast and the anchorages, the one area the London insurance market still treated as low risk. That changes the cost of every call at Constanța, Sulina and Ukraine’s Danube ports.

What happened, and who says what

The counts differ by outlet, so here is each one on its own terms.
AP lists the ships. The San Marino-flagged chemical tanker Wine Trader, sailing from Tunisia to Romania, was hit on Thursday 15 October and caught fire. Five crew were rescued and seven are missing. The Comoros-flagged Yara J, sailing from Turkey to Romania, had a drone strike and fire on Wednesday 14 October. On Tuesday 13 October, two ships were struck off Bulgaria. All 15 crew of the Chelsea 3, which is Ukraine-operated and Maltese-flagged, were evacuated. Eleven crew of the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity are missing. Earlier in October, AP says, a Togo-flagged ship sank with 12 sailors unaccounted for. A Palau-flagged ship was damaged and 18 crew were evacuated. A Turkish-owned ship carrying corn also sank off Romania. Two people died and 11 were rescued.
Reuters, via gCaptain, counts differently. It says that apart from the two tankers, “at least five other cargo ships have been hit near the coasts of Romania and neighboring Bulgaria in the past 10 days, with 23 sailors reported dead or missing.” It adds that most of those incidents were outside NATO territorial waters.
Euromaidan Press, in an update on 16 October, says drones hit “at least four more merchant ships off Bulgaria and Romania between 13 and 15 October,” sinking the HS Dignity off Krapets. It says “At least 17 seafarers are missing.”
On who sent the drones, the strongest attribution is a single anonymous source. “The two tankers struck earlier this week were hit by Russian drones, a NATO military source told Reuters.” Russia has not said so. AP reports that Russia’s ambassador in Sofia said she had no information from her country’s defence ministry. Romanian President Nicusor Dan, speaking in Brussels, said “two drones” hit the vessels, without naming whose they were. He also said: “There will be a reaction from the Romanian state.” Euromaidan Press reports that Dan called the attacks “attempts by Russia” to destabilise Romania and Bulgaria.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev put the doubt plainly to his parliament, AP reports: “There is no logic in Ukraine attacking its own ships and crews.” He said the outcome of the attacks favours Russia. The next line of AP’s report reads: “The problem is that we cannot prove it.”

Why the coast matters more than the open sea

To see why this week is different, look at how the insurance market draws its map.
War risk is usually cut out of a ship’s normal hull insurance. Owners buy it separately. When a ship enters an area the Joint War Committee (JWC) has “listed” as high risk, the owner must tell insurers and usually pays an additional premium for that voyage. The JWC is the committee of London market underwriters that sets those areas.
On 16 September the JWC widened its Black Sea listed area to cover most of the sea (Beinsure). “This week, the JWC has expanded the Black Sea reporting requirements to the whole of the Black Sea area,” Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association and secretary of the JWC, said, as reported by Reuters on 18 September. He added: “The coastal waters of Russia and Ukraine were already listed.”
But there was a carve-out. Beinsure reported that “Territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia remain outside the revised area.” Territorial waters reach 12 nautical miles, about 22 km, from the shore. Insurance Business noted on 6 October that strikes that week, “around 70 nautical miles out, fell inside the newly listed area.”
That 12-mile strip is where ships wait. It holds the anchorages off Constanța and the approach to the Sulina Canal, which Reuters describes as linking “the Danube River to the Black Sea” and as “an export route for Ukraine.” Reuters says both tankers hit this week were anchored near Sulina. AP says that of the two fires on 14 and 15 October, one was “in Romania’s territorial waters.” Saturday’s drones were also over Romanian territorial waters.
In plain terms: the attacks have now reached the exact water the market left off its high-risk map.

What insurance already costs, and what happened last time

Premiums were climbing before this week. Beinsure reported in September that “War-risk premiums for Black Sea port calls climbed to about 1% of a vessel’s insured value, up from roughly 0.6%–0.8% in late December.” On a ship insured for $20 million, 1% is $200,000 for a single call.
The last spike shows how fast this moves. In December 2025, after attacks on Russia-linked tankers, India Seatrade News reported that “Prior to the latest incidents, war risk premiums typically stood at between 0.25% and 0.3% of a ship’s value.” It added: “Underwriters are now charging as much as 1% for some Ukrainian Black Sea ports.” Citing Marsh data, it said the cost of covering port calls had “more than tripled in recent days.” That jump took days, not months.
The scale of the campaign is also larger than this month’s headlines. Insurance Business, citing the risk firm Ambrey, reported “more than 210 strikes on commercial vessels in the Black Sea” between July and the end of September.
On the ground, Romania’s main port has held up so far. Grain consultant Cezar Gheorghe, founder of Agricolumn, told AP the incidents have not hurt trade at Constanța. But he also said: “The (premium) for the risk is increasing.” He warned that “everyone that wants to come to Constanta, let’s say from Turkey,” faces higher insurance costs.

The grain war behind it

This is not random. It sits inside a fight over grain exports. Euromaidan Press reports that Ukraine’s drones began hitting ships carrying grain out of occupied ports in June, and that Russia responded by striking Ukraine’s grain ports and the ships serving them.
Both sides’ exports have fallen hard. Citing the Russian Grain Union, Euromaidan Press says about 1.36 million tonnes of wheat shipped from Russian ports in September, against 5.4 million tonnes in September 2025, a 75% drop. It says Ukraine exported 1.094 million tonnes of wheat in September, down from 2.051 million tonnes a year earlier, a 47% drop. The same outlet says Ukraine’s Danube ports of Izmail, Reni and Kiliia have been the main outlet keeping exports from falling further. That is why ships near Sulina are in the line of fire.
There is no deal in sight. Euromaidan Press notes the UN and Türkiye have been trying to broker talks on a Black Sea ceasefire, and that the 2022 grain deal collapsed a year later.

What NATO says it will do

NATO is talking, not yet acting at sea. Secretary-General Mark Rutte wrote on X, as quoted by AP: “NATO will continue to work closely with our Allies in the Black Sea, adjusting our deterrence and defense posture as needed.” AP reports Bulgaria plans to join NATO’s Drone Edge initiative by the end of October, which “aims to invest over $40 billion in”counter-drone capabilities” over the next five years.”
Romanian defence analyst Radu Tudor said, according to AP, that it is unclear whether attacks in a member’s exclusive economic zone trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual-defence clause: “And it seems that until now, it isn’t — which raised a lot of questions.” His summary: “Words are not enough.”
Convoys are not close either. An anonymous Romanian defence-sector source told AP they had heard Turkey would like Black Sea states to plan an escort mission, but said: “our Romanian vessels don’t have anti-air defense systems to protect against drones.”

What forwarders should do now

Here is what we think follows for anyone moving cargo through the western Black Sea.
First, expect owners to pass on war-risk costs for calls at Constanța, Sulina and the Danube ports, even where the call stays inside Romanian waters. Ask now whether your freight quotes include a war-risk surcharge, and for how long they are valid.
Second, expect some charterers and owners to avoid long waits at the Sulina anchorage. That means slower turnarounds and more demurrage risk on Danube cargo. Build in slack on grain, fertiliser and steel lanes using these ports.
Third, check your cargo cover. Gard advises cargo owners to carry insurance that includes war cover, Beinsure reported. Beinsure also warned that standard marine insurance “does not automatically mean a drone strike connected with armed conflict will be paid.”
Fourth, watch Bulgarian ports too. The Chelsea 3 and HS Dignity were struck off Bulgaria, and the Bulgarian carve-out from the JWC map is the same as Romania’s.
Our prediction: by the end of November, the London market will price Romanian territorial waters as war-risk water. Either the JWC will add them to the listed area, or underwriters will start charging an additional premium for Constanța and Sulina calls anyway. We also expect Black Sea port-call premiums to move above the roughly 1% Beinsure reported in September before the year ends.

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