Saturday, October 24, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Oct 24, 2026 · 7 min read

Drone sinks cargo ship Khoryv off Constanta

A ship sank about a mile outside Romania’s 12-mile line. A drone sank the cargo ship Khoryv on Friday 23 October, about 13 nautical miles east of Constanta. One sailor died and three are missing, AP reports. That is just outside the 12-mile territorial line (Meduza) that the insurers’ Joint War Committee leaves out of its Black Sea risk area (Beinsure). Our view: insurers will price the approach to Romania, not just the berth. Most attacks have been near the Sulina Channel, Ukraine’s grain route (Meduza). Our prediction: by end of November 2026, Romanian anchorages, including Sulina, will carry a clear war-risk premium, passed on as Danube and Constanta bulk surcharges.

The Khoryv sank one mile past the line insurers treat as safe

A drone hit and sank the cargo ship Khoryv on Friday 23 October. It went down about 13 nautical miles east of Constanta, Romania’s main Black Sea port. One crew member was killed. Three are missing. Nine were rescued, AP reports.

The ship flew the flag of Comoros. Its crew of 13 was made up of 10 Ukrainians and 3 Azerbaijanis. It had left Turkey on 21 October, bound for Sulina, the Danube’s entrance from the sea. Bad weather and low visibility kept a rescue helicopter on the ground, according to AP.

Our view is simple. The cheap way into Romania has relied on staying inside the 12-mile territorial line, where the main war-risk listing does not apply. This sinking happened one mile outside that line, on the approach to Romania’s biggest port. We think insurers will now start pricing the approach to Romania itself. Forwarders should quote as if that has already happened.

What happened, and where

Romania’s naval authority said the ship sank about 13 nautical miles east of Constanta, near the edge of Romanian territorial waters (AP). Meduza reported the naval authority as putting the distress call at about 24 km from Constanta, “just outside” Romanian territorial waters. Those are the same distance: 13 nautical miles is about 24 km.

The authority said: “Rescue teams continue search operations to identify and rescue the other three crew members” (AP).

Romanian President Nicusor Dan blamed Russia. “This attack is a new example of the tragic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,” he said. He added: “It is time for Russia to take peace initiatives of the United States and Europe seriously” (AP).

This was not a one-off. AP counts at least seven other cargo ships attacked this month off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members. Those attacks left two people dead and 25 missing. Add the Khoryv, and AP’s figures come to at least eight ships, three dead and 28 missing in October. Reuters gave a similar picture: at least seven ships attacked over two weeks, with about 30 sailors killed or missing (via Meduza).

AP also reported that Romanian air-policing pilots shot down two drones over the Black Sea in Romania’s territorial waters on the previous Saturday. The drones are reaching the coast, not just open water.

Why the 12-mile line matters

War-risk insurance is the extra cover a ship needs to sail into a conflict zone. Normal hull insurance excludes war damage. So owners buy separate war cover for each risky voyage, and the price is set per trip.

Underwriters use a list kept by the Joint War Committee, a group of London market insurers. Waters on its “Listed Area” need that separate cover. On 16 September the committee expanded the area across most of the Black Sea, Beinsure reported. But it carved out a strip. In Beinsure’s words: “Territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania remain outside the area within 12 nautical miles.”

That carve-out is what kept the Romanian route cheaper. A ship from the Bosphorus could hug the Turkish, Bulgarian and Romanian coasts and spend less time in listed water. Beinsure noted that ships bound for the Danube ports of Galati and Braila had previously avoided war-risk charges. It also reported that insurers were still working out how charges apply when ships leave and later re-enter the listed area. And it flagged a cost of the coastal route: procedures in Bulgaria and Romania add paperwork.

The Khoryv sank 13 nautical miles out. That is about one mile past the carve-out, on the main approach to Constanta. A ship heading to Sulina or Constanta has to pass through water like this. Our reading: the safe strip was always thin, and now it has a wreck just beyond its edge.

What insurance already costs

The price of Black Sea war cover has been rising all year. Beinsure reported in September that war-risk premiums for Black Sea port calls had climbed to about 1% of a vessel’s insured value. That was up from roughly 0.6% to 0.8% in late December.

For a Handysize bulk carrier (a small dry-bulk ship, common on grain runs), early, unconfirmed estimates put the extra premium from the September listing at 0.10% to 0.20% of insured value. For a ship insured at about $12 million, that is roughly $12,000 to $24,000 extra. On a cargo basis, B.G. Shipping put that at about $0.40 to $0.80 per tonne, if the ship spends no more than seven days in the zone (Beinsure). On Greater Odesa routes, the added insurance cost for cargo owners was estimated at $2 to $3 per tonne.

Those Odesa numbers show where Romanian routes could go. If underwriters start treating the Constanta and Sulina approaches more like Ukrainian waters, the per-tonne cost on Danube cargo moves up from cents toward dollars.

The pressure has a history. In December 2025, India Seatrade News reported that underwriters were charging as much as 1% for some Ukrainian ports, against a typical 0.25% to 0.3% of a ship’s value before a run of attacks. It also reported that the cost of covering port calls in the region had more than tripled in recent days, citing Marsh data relayed by other media. Prices in this market move in days, not quarters.

NATO’s response has not stopped the attacks

On Tuesday 20 October, NATO said it would add more surveillance. Colonel Martin O’Donnell, speaking for the alliance, said: “Allies have or will send additional maritime patrol aircraft, radar systems, explosive exploitation teams” as well as intelligence staff and drones (Al Jazeera). He said the priority was to “increase our situational awareness in the region through increased sensors and data sharing.”

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, called the run of suspected Russian drone attacks “a dangerous and unacceptable escalation” (Al Jazeera).

Three days later, the Khoryv sank. Our view: sensors and patrol planes help NATO see attacks. They do not, on their own, stop a drone reaching a ship. Underwriters price what happens, not what is promised. Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria have asked NATO to do more to protect merchant ships, Meduza reported. Until that “more” turns into something that cuts the number of hits, we expect the insurance market to keep moving against Romanian routes.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

The Danube route matters because Ukraine’s own sea ports have been hit. Meduza reported that most of the attacked ships were near the Sulina Channel, which “connects the Danube to the Black Sea”. Citing Reuters, it said the channel became the main export route for Ukrainian grain and vegetable oil after strikes on Ukraine’s ports.

So the cargo most exposed is bulk: grain, oilseeds, vegetable oil and the inbound goods that move on the same river. But container and project cargo through Constanta sits in the same waters.

Here is what we think forwarders should plan for:

  • Higher war-risk costs on the voyage. If you buy or quote freight to Constanta, Sulina or the Danube ports, ask the owner or carrier how war cover is charged. Ask whether it is fixed or passed through at cost. Get it in writing before the cargo is fixed.
  • Surcharges at short notice. Owners pass war cover on to charterers and shippers. Contracts that let them add a war-risk surcharge will be used. Check your clauses.
  • Crew refusals and delays. Seafarers can refuse to sail into areas where ships are being hit. With 31 people dead or missing in a month on AP’s count, expect some crews and some owners to say no, and fewer ships offering the run.
  • Slower turns. Coastal routing through Bulgarian and Romanian waters adds paperwork, Beinsure reported. Add buffer days to transit times on Danube and Constanta cargo.
  • Price the risk into longer deals. Quotes for November and December cargo should carry a war-risk line that can move. A fixed all-in rate is a bet you may lose.

Shippers who moved Ukraine-linked cargo onto Romanian ports to avoid risk should look again. The bypass is now on the front line.

Our prediction

Our prediction: by end of November 2026, war-risk underwriters will quote Romanian anchorages, including Sulina, at a clear premium to the rest of the western Black Sea. Owners will pass that on as surcharges on Danube and Constanta bulk cargo.

The Khoryv makes that more likely, not less. It sank on the approach to Constanta, just outside the strip the market had treated as lower risk, three days after NATO’s new measures were announced. We expect the first visible sign to be owners and carriers adding a named war-risk charge on Romanian calls within weeks, before the end of November.

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