Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read

Asia-Europe carriers ask for $1,000 more from today

Asia-Europe carriers want up to $4,800 a box from today. Expect them to get part of it. Carriers are asking $4,500 to $4,800 per 40ft container on Asia-Europe from 19 October, Drewry reports. Shanghai-Rotterdam spot was $3,522 on 15 October. Our view: this is an opening bid, not a new price. Asia-Europe blank sailings fall from six to two next week, Drewry counts, and Drewry itself calls success uncertain. Mid-July FAKs of $7,900 to $8,500 did not hold either. Quote late-October cargo with a short validity. Our call: Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate stays below $4,000 in its 29 October assessment.

Carriers want $1,000 more for Asia-Europe from today. The ships say otherwise.
Asia-Europe carriers are trying to lift their prices by roughly a third from today. Drewry reports that carriers are seeking FAK rates of $4,500 to $4,800 per 40ft container on Asia-Europe, effective 19 October. FAK stands for “freight all kinds”: a single tariff price per container, whatever the cargo. Spot quotes usually start from it.
The market they are pushing against is much lower. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) for 15 October put Shanghai-Rotterdam at $3,522 per 40ft. Shanghai-Genoa was $3,945. On Rotterdam, the ask sits $978 to $1,278 above the market, or about 28% to 36%.
Our view is simple. This increase will land partly, not fully. Carriers are setting a high anchor so that a smaller rise feels like a win. The capacity on the water does not support the full number. The forwarders who come out best will quote on that basis rather than pass the full FAK straight to customers.

What the indexes show

Last week was a genuine rebound on Asia-Europe. The WCI composite rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft, after three straight weekly falls, Drewry said. Asia-Europe drove the gain. Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 6%. Shanghai-Genoa rose 7%.
Xeneta saw the same direction, more softly. On 16 October its market-average spot rate for Far East-North Europe was $3,568 per 40ft, up 2.5% on the week. Far East-Mediterranean was $4,165, up 3.2%.
Xeneta’s senior shipping analyst, Emily Stausbøll, described a levelling-off rather than a surge: “Far East to Europe spot rates have stabilized following steady decline.” She added: “This is likely the balance of supply and demand correcting spot rates that have fallen far enough.”
Not every index agrees on direction. The New York Shanghai Freight Index (NYFI) for 16 October showed Asia-North Europe down 7.08%, to 3,118.71, Container News reported. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a composite, rose only 0.42% to 3,679.58.
That split matters in practice. If a customer contract is linked to an index, the index named in the contract decides whether last week was a rise or a fall. Check which one your contracts use before you talk to customers about this FAK.

Why the capacity says no

A rate rise sticks when ships are full. Carriers make ships full by cancelling voyages. A cancelled voyage is called a blank sailing. Right now carriers are cancelling very few on Asia-Europe.
Drewry counts six blank sailings on Asia-Europe this week and only two next week. On the transpacific it is six both weeks. Drewry’s wider cancelled sailings tracker, dated 16 October, covers week 43 (19 to 25 October) to week 47 (16 to 22 November). It lists 44 cancellations out of 713 planned sailings on the major East-West trades. That is 6%, so 94% of sailings are expected to run.
Drewry draws its own conclusion. Its 16 October tracker asks: “Freight rates are finding their footing, but how long can the recovery hold?” It says the “sustainability of the recent rebound remains uncertain.” In the WCI it says success for the FAK push is uncertain because capacity is increasing. Its forecast for Asia-Europe is plain: “Hence, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week.”
Compare the transpacific. Xeneta says carriers blanked 58,200 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units, the standard box measure) on Far East-US West Coast this week, and 35,500 TEU on Far East-US East Coast. Stausbøll: “The telling signal is that carriers are removing capacity”. US rates have held up. Far East-US West Coast was $8,296 and Far East-US East Coast $11,495 on Xeneta’s 16 October figures, both almost flat. Carriers are cutting hard where they want to hold rates. On Asia-Europe they are not.

The Red Sea is adding ships to the network

There is a second capacity pressure, and it is growing. Ships are going back through the Red Sea.
Xeneta says weekly scheduled capacity through the Bab el-Mandeb strait was 448,273 TEU on 5 October. That is double the 27 August level. It is still only 48% of the 930,679 TEU of August 2023, before ships began diverting around the Cape of Good Hope. Stausbøll: “The return of container shipping to the Red Sea is accelerating”.
Our reading: every loop that goes back via Suez needs fewer ships to run the same weekly service, because the voyage is shorter. Those spare ships do not vanish. They end up on other loops or in the spot market. That is extra effective capacity on exactly the trade where carriers are trying to raise prices. It works against the FAK.

What happened last time

This year has a clear pattern on Asia-Europe. Carriers announce high FAKs. The market moves partly towards them, then slips back.
In June, CMA CGM announced Asia-North Europe FAK rates of $6,300 per 40ft from 1 July, Container News reported. For Asia-West Mediterranean it set $7,700 per 40ft for loadings from 1 to 15 July.
The market rose, but never reached those levels. Drewry’s WCI for 9 July showed Shanghai-Rotterdam at $4,933 and Shanghai-Genoa at $6,463, per a ShipUniverse report. Carriers then announced FAKs of $7,900 to $8,500 per 40ft for 15 July. Those did not hold that week, according to MTS Insights’ summary of Drewry’s 16 July index. Shanghai-Rotterdam slipped to $4,873 and Genoa to $6,300.
Since then, Shanghai-Rotterdam has fallen about 29%, from $4,933 to $3,522. Genoa is down about 39%, from $6,463 to $3,945.
The current round looks the same. Container News reported on 24 September that Hapag-Lloyd is raising its own Far East-Europe FAKs for sailings tariffed on or after 19 October. It set North Europe at $4,200 per 40ft. West Mediterranean and Adriatic were $4,600, and Egypt, Türkiye and East Mediterranean $5,100. Hapag-Lloyd notes that “The announced rates include the Marine Fuel Recovery charge.” Other surcharges can apply on top.
Hapag-Lloyd’s North Europe figure is already below the $4,500 to $4,800 range Drewry describes. Even one of the big carriers is asking for less than the headline. That gives a guide to where the deals will land.

What forwarders should do now

First, quote late-October Asia-Europe cargo with short validity. Seven to ten days is sensible. Explain to shippers that carriers have filed an increase, and that the market will probably meet it only partway.
Second, do not price to the full FAK unless a carrier has confirmed it in writing for your allocation. On past form, the gap between filed FAKs and real deals has been wide all year. Pricing to the full FAK risks losing bookings to forwarders who read the market better.
Third, check your index links. A contract on the WCI shows Asia-North Europe up 6% last week. One on the NYFI shows it down 7%. The same customer could get a rate rise or a cut depending on that clause.
Fourth, watch the blank sailing count each week. Two cancellations next week is a weak base for higher rates. If carriers start blanking Asia-Europe loops in November the way they are blanking the transpacific, the picture changes. That is the one signal that would make us wrong.
Fifth, think about 2027 contracts. Carriers want a higher spot level going into annual tender season. Shippers on Asia-Europe have the Red Sea return and light blanking on their side. Our view is that shippers should not lock in long-term rates off a short-term FAK spike.
For transpacific cargo the story is different. US rates are high, carriers are cutting capacity hard, and Xeneta expects more downward pressure on US rates. Asia-Europe shippers have more leverage than transpacific shippers this autumn.

Our call

We expect carriers to win part of the increase this week, then lose ground. Our prediction: Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate stays below $4,000 per 40ft in its 29 October assessment. That is less than half the gap between today’s spot rate and the bottom of the FAK range. We also expect a fresh round of Asia-Europe FAK filings for mid-November loadings within the next three weeks. That would be the clearest sign the 19 October push did not hold.

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