Saturday, October 24, 2026
The news that moves freight
Ocean Oct 24, 2026 · 7 min read

Three Asia–Europe indices disagree as carriers ask for more from 1 November

Asia–Europe rates: up 6.8%, up 0.7% or down. It depends which index you read. The SCFI rose 1.76 points to 3,681.34 on Friday, its third small weekly gain. Its Europe rate rose about 0.7% (Economic Daily News). On Asia–North Europe, Xeneta shows +6.8% to $3,698 per 40ft. The FBX shows a fall from $3,692 to $3,516. Our view: when the benchmarks can’t agree, the increase hasn’t stuck. Linerlytica says carriers’ real prices are below the SCFI. MSC still wants $4,500 to North Europe from 1 November (The Loadstar). By our sums, that is $800 to $1,000 above Xeneta and the FBX. We expect Drewry’s Shanghai–Rotterdam rate to be below $3,522 by its 19 November reading.

Up 6.8%, up 0.7%, or down $176: Asia–Europe’s indices split, and carriers ask for $4,500 to $5,200 anyway

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) closed Friday 23 October at 3,681.34. That is up 1.76 points, according to Economic Daily News and ETtoday, or about 0.05%. It is the third weekly rise in a row. The other two were also small: +1.81 points on 9 October and +15.47 on 16 October, according to opencontainer.kr’s SCFI table. On Asia–Europe, the SCFI’s Far East–Europe rate rose $16 to $2,351 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit, a standard 20ft box). Far East–Med rose $5, or 0.2%, to $3,255 per TEU.

The same week, other benchmarks told different stories on the same lane. Xeneta has Far East–North Europe up 6.8%. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) has it down.

Our view: when the main indices can’t agree on which way a lane moved, the increase hasn’t stuck. Carriers announced higher rates for mid-October, and the market has only partly taken them. Carriers’ answer is to ask for even more from 1 November and pull more ships. We think forwarders should not plan November around those numbers.

Four benchmarks, one lane

Here is Asia–North Europe on the readings published on 22 and 23 October, per 40ft container (FEU):

  • Xeneta: $3,698, up 6.8% on the week (IndexBox, citing Xeneta).
  • Drewry World Container Index (WCI): Shanghai–Rotterdam $3,632, up 3% (The Loadstar).
  • FBX: $3,516, down from $3,692 at the start of the week (The Edge Malaysia, Baltic Exchange weekly update).
  • SCFI: Far East–Europe up $16, or about 0.7%, to $2,351 per TEU (Economic Daily News).

The Mediterranean agrees more on direction, but not on size. The FBX has Asia–Med up from $4,001 to $4,421. Xeneta has Far East–Med up 5.8% to $4,442. Drewry has Shanghai–Genoa up 5% to $4,152. The SCFI has Far East–Med up only 0.2%.

The indices are built differently. Some collect carrier quotes and some collect what shippers actually paid. They also close on different days. So small gaps are normal. A gap this big, with North Europe up nearly 7% on one index and down nearly 5% on another, tells us the market has no settled price.

One analyst goes further. Linerlytica analysts noted, according to The Loadstar, that “actual spot rates remain weak with current carrier rates at below the SCFI’s assessment”. The SCFI is the index that showed the smallest rise. If Linerlytica is right, even that index is too high. The Loadstar also reports that Linerlytica “predicts the new November pricing will likely fail”.

European forwarders say the same. According to The Loadstar, they reported “receiving discounted offers on FAK levels throughout the first half of this month”. FAK means freight all kinds, a carrier’s standard spot tariff for general cargo. The paper reports that forwarders expect more discounts in November.

The longer trend points down too. IndexBox’s summary of Xeneta’s data puts Far East–North Europe 33.2% below where it was three months ago, and Far East–Med 36.7% below. Both are still well above 28 February: North Europe by 67%, the Med by 33%. Rates have dropped a long way from the summer peak. This week’s rise is a bounce inside that fall, not a turn.

What carriers want from 1 November

Carriers are not easing off. The Loadstar reports MSC’s FAK levels from 1 November, per 40ft:

  • North Europe: $4,500, “the same level as that introduced in mid-October”.
  • West Med: $5,000.
  • East Med: $5,100. The paper says MSC is “only $500 per 40ft up in terms of Mediterranean destinations”.

CMA CGM has filed $4,900 to the West Med and $5,200 to the East Med, according to the same report.

Compare those with the indices. MSC’s North Europe FAK is $802 above Xeneta’s reading, $868 above Drewry’s and $984 above the FBX. On the West Med, MSC’s $5,000 is about $560 to $580 above the FBX and Xeneta Med readings, and $848 above Drewry’s Genoa rate. These are our calculations from the published figures.

To close that gap, carriers are cutting capacity. Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight counts eight Asia–Europe blank sailings next week, up from two this week, “indicating tight capacity” (The Loadstar). A blank sailing is a scheduled departure that a carrier cancels. Fewer ships means less space, and less space supports prices for a week or two.

The transpacific: a $3,000 filing against a falling East Coast

The same thing is happening on the US lanes. ETtoday reported on 23 October that carriers have filed a November rate increase of US$3,000 per 40ft with the maritime authority. A very large forwarder told ETtoday that prices for shippers were not yet out. It said rates would be very flexible: “有機會就漲，裝不滿就跌” (“raise when they can, cut when ships aren’t full”). On Europe, the same report said November pricing was not yet open and unlikely to rise much, with rates “約略持平” (“roughly flat”).

The FBX has already moved the other way. Asia–US East Coast fell from $10,754 to $9,927 per FEU over the week, down $827. Asia–US West Coast slipped from $8,391 to $8,342 (The Edge Malaysia). The SCFI had the US West Coast down $4 to $7,521 per FEU and the East Coast down $17 to $10,388 (Economic Daily News). Xeneta had both coasts up just 0.2%, to $8,311 and $11,525 (IndexBox).

Capacity is coming back. Drewry counts two transpacific blank sailings next week, down from six this week, “indicating more effective capacity” (The Loadstar). Freight Right said, according to the paper: “While baseline market rates remain flat through month-end, additional capacity is opening up”. It also said that “Aggressive pricing anomalies exist among niche carriers”, naming Ocean Network Express (ONE). Drewry still expects stability for now: “Since strong US import demand continues to support freight rates, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week”.

A $3,000 increase on top of the FBX’s $9,927 would put the East Coast near $12,900. With blankings falling and the peak season ending, we don’t see that happening.

What happened last time

This is the same pattern as a year ago. In November 2025, The Loadstar, republished by gCaptain on 21 November, reported that transpacific GRIs (general rate increases) set for 15 November were “falling completely flat”. Asia–Europe did better: mid-November FAK increases pushed spot rates up that week. But the SCFI’s North Europe rate was already falling again, and a freight buyer said MSC had cut its December increase.

Xeneta also wrote about tender timing that month, in an analysis republished by Hellenic Shipping News on 12 November 2025. It noted an argument that carriers time rate increases to tender season so they are not negotiating while rates fall. Its advice to shippers was direct: “why would a shipper lock into long term rates that are higher than short term rates?”

That advice matters now, in the run-up to 2027 contract talks. In our view, the FAK headlines are a starting point for those talks.

What this means for forwarders

Don’t buy November Asia–Europe at the FAK level. The published rates are $550 to $1,000 above what the indices show actually trading. Discounts were on offer in early October, and forwarders expect more in November.

Check your index clauses. If a contract is linked to one benchmark, the index it names now makes a difference of several hundred dollars per box on North Europe. A contract linked to Xeneta would have gone up this week. One linked to the FBX would have gone down.

Plan for one or two firmer readings. Eight blank sailings next week will tighten space on some loops. Expect quotes to harden briefly, then soften once those ships return.

On the transpacific, quote November around today’s levels, not the $3,000 filing. Capacity is returning and East Coast spot is already sliding on the FBX.

In tenders, don’t let a short-lived November increase become the 2027 baseline.

Our call

We think the Asia–Europe rise does not hold. By Drewry’s week-47 reading, published around 19 November, we expect Shanghai–Rotterdam to be back below $3,522 per 40ft and Shanghai–Genoa below $4,500. That would leave MSC’s $5,000 and CMA CGM’s $4,900 West Med FAKs, and MSC’s $4,500 North Europe level, unrealised. The eight blank sailings make the next one or two readings firmer. They do not change where we expect rates to be by mid-November.

We expect at least one more round of carrier FAK announcements for 1 December, timed for tender season, and we expect it to meet the same resistance.

On the transpacific, we expect Shanghai–Los Angeles to stay between $7,000 and $8,500 per 40ft through the end of November. We don’t expect the $3,000 November filing, or any other GRI, to stick before December. We expect Drewry’s composite WCI, at $4,585 this week according to ETtoday, to drift lower over the same period, pulled down by Europe, and to be below $4,485 by late November.

Sources