Air Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read

Air cargo firms into peak as airlines cut winter flying

Air spot rates are 32% up on last year, and winter cuts will push them higher. Global air spot rates were 32% higher than a year ago in the first week of October, according to WorldACD data reported by Air Cargo Week. China–US spot averaged US$6.05/kg in September, up 30%. We think the price relief many expected after the summer is not coming. Capacity to and from the Gulf is still about 17% below late February. Now airlines such as Lufthansa are reported to be trimming winter passenger schedules, which removes belly space. Our call: global spot rates stay at least 20% above last year through the end of November.

The post-summer air rate slide is over, and winter will make space scarcer Global air cargo spot rates were 32% higher than a year earlier in week 40, which ran from 28 September to 4 October. That comes from WorldACD data reported by Air Cargo Week on 13 October. Full-market rates, which average spot bookings and longer contract prices, were up 26%. Both rose 1% on the previous week.

Here is what we think that means. The cooling in air rates over the summer has stopped. It has not turned back into a spike, but the floor is now well above last year. At the same time, airlines are heading into a winter of high fuel costs and smaller schedules. Shippers hoping for cheap air freight before Christmas are, in our view, going to be disappointed. Forwarders should plan for rates that stay firm through peak and into the first quarter.

What the September numbers show

Start with demand. “Following a dip in August, global air cargo tonnages bounced back strongly in September,” Air Cargo Week reported, citing WorldACD. Year on year, September tonnages rose 10% from Asia Pacific and North America, 9% from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA), 8% from Europe and Africa, and 5% from Central and South America.

The weekly picture is softer. Tonnages fell 2% on the previous week in week 40. Air Cargo Week put that mainly down to holiday timing in Asia Pacific. Rates rose anyway, which is the detail that matters. When volumes slip and prices still edge up, buyers have little leverage.

The China–US lane is the strongest. WorldACD says “average spot rates from China to the US in September stood at $6.05 per kilo, a +30 percent increase” on a year earlier. Tonnages on that lane grew 17% year on year in September.

China to Europe looks different. The full-market rate rose to US$4.53/kg, up 9% year on year, against a 30% rise in June. Volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe fell about 10% year on year. Most of that drop came from Hong Kong, while mainland China volumes dipped only slightly. Air Cargo Week links this to the EU ending its low-value goods exemption on 1 July. Xeneta describes that change as the end of the €150 duty-free threshold, replaced by a flat €3 duty per item. E-commerce parcels moving from Hong Kong to Europe were among the first to feel it.

Across the whole market, September full-market rates were up 1% on August and 25% on a year earlier. The biggest year-on-year rise was from MESA, at 52%.

The quarter shows the bigger trend. Q3 tonnages were up 3% on Q2 and 6% on Q3 last year. Average rates fell 7% from the high Q2 levels but were still 24% above a year earlier. Year to date, tonnages are up 5% and full-market rates up 22%.

Capacity is still short where the war hit

Worldwide capacity in week 40 was about 4% higher than a year earlier, per WorldACD. That came from a 7% rise in freighter capacity and a 2% rise in passenger bellyhold capacity. Bellyhold is cargo carried in the hold of passenger planes. It makes up a large share of space on many long-haul routes.

The gap is in the Middle East. Compared with late February, before the US–Iran conflict, “capacity to and from MESA is down by around -10 percent, with capacity to and from the Gulf area down by around -17 percent,” WorldACD said. The Gulf hubs normally link Asia, Europe and Africa. When their capacity drops, cargo has to find longer or pricier routes.

IATA’s August figures, released on 29 September, tell the same story from the demand side. Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs — tonnes carried multiplied by distance flown), rose 4.4% year on year. Capacity fell 0.1%. IATA’s chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen said: “Air cargo demand rose 4.4% year-on-year in August with all regions reporting growth even as capacity was trimmed by 0.1%.” Asia–North America CTKs rose 13.2%, the seventh straight month of growth. Europe–Middle East fell 12.1% and Middle East–Asia fell 11.0%, both for a sixth month in a row.

IATA also said jet fuel prices in August were 79.2% higher than a year earlier.

Airlines are bracing for a hard winter

That fuel bill is now shaping schedules. Air Cargo Week, citing the Financial Times, reported on 13 October that airlines are worried about the first winter since the Iran war began. It said carriers “such as Lufthansa” were “already reported to have released reduced capacity winter schedules.”

The cost pressure is clear in the numbers. US airlines spent US$42.9bn on fuel through August, US$13.2bn more than in 2025, according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. That is roughly a 44% rise. Delta “is reported to have slashed its annual profit forecast by US$ 6 billion,” Air Cargo Week said, and its fuel expenses were reported to be up 62% year on year.

IAG chief executive Luis Gallego told the FT: “we are going to see medium-sized and small companies struggling.” Some airlines have already gone. Spirit Airlines stopped flying in May, and airBaltic has filed for bankruptcy, per Air Cargo Week. Separately, Air Cargo Week reported that attacks and a closure at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport led to an estimated 700 cancelled flights a day, according to FlightRadar24.

For cargo, the logic is simple. Every passenger flight that is cut takes its bellyhold space with it. Airlines trim the weakest routes first, which are often secondary city pairs and thinner long-haul routes. Freighters can fill some of the gap, but freighter operators pay the same high fuel prices and will price accordingly.

Cargo is propping up the airlines

Cargo is one of the few good lines on airline income statements right now. Delta’s Q3 cargo revenue rose 29% year on year to US$301m, Air Cargo News reported on 12 October. Delta said “the revenue increase was fuelled roughly equally by volume and yield,” and the paper estimated about 15% from each. That volume gain would be well above IATA’s North American average of 6.6% for August.

Air Cargo News also noted that Delta’s chief commercial officer, Joe Esposito, said on the Q2 call that gains came from cargo being rerouted away from the Middle East and from Delta’s expansion in Asia.

That matters for buyers. When cargo is earning more per kilo while fuel eats into passenger profits, airlines have every reason to protect cargo yields. They will not give space away cheaply.

What happened last time

In August, the outlook was gloomier. Xeneta wrote on 6 August that little appetite for peak-season charters signalled a weaker air cargo market for the rest of 2026. Xeneta’s Niall van de Wouw said: “Rates are swinging backwards, and we expect that to continue, despite the situation in the Middle East still being unclear.” He also said: “Very few people are talking about peak season.”

Part of that call was right. WorldACD’s Q3 average rates did fall 7% from Q2. But the slide has stopped. September full-market rates rose on August, and rates rose again in the first week of October. Van de Wouw also said in August: “Airlines will be fighting tooth and nail to avoid reducing rates as quickly as they went up.” That part is now playing out, and winter schedule cuts give airlines more reason to hold the line.

What forwarders should do now

Our reading is that the market has moved from “falling” to “firm, with less space coming.” Here is what that means in practice.

On Asia–US, demand is strong and spot rates are already above US$6/kg from China. Secure block space or allocations for November and December now. Keep spot quotes short, ideally a week or less.

On transatlantic and secondary European routes, watch winter schedules closely. These depend heavily on bellyhold space. As schedules drop, expect fewer daily options, more rollovers and higher surcharges. Build longer transit buffers into customer promises.

On anything routed via the Gulf, assume capacity stays 10–17% below pre-war levels and price for it. Have a backup routing ready.

On Asia–Europe e-commerce, Hong Kong volumes are falling after the EU duty change. That eases pressure on some China–Europe space. It also means fewer low-value parcel shipments to fill freighters, which may lead airlines to cut some of those flights.

On contracts, shippers asking for Q1 2027 rate tenders should expect quotes above this year’s. Fuel surcharges are the obvious lever. With jet fuel 79% above last year in August, per IATA, they will not fall quickly.

Our prediction

Our call: WorldACD’s global spot rate stays at least 20% above last year every week through the end of November. China–US spot averages more than US$6/kg in both October and November. And by the end of January 2027, at least one more European or Asian airline announces further winter capacity cuts or a restructuring, citing fuel costs.

Sources