Air rates hit 2026 high as Frankfurt turns up and chip cargo carries the peak
Tracker Air cargo rates · 3.93 USD/kg
Chips, not parcels: Frankfurt’s 9.9% jump marks the start of Europe’s air peak
Global air freight rates rose 6.6% in a single week to their highest level of 2026. The reading comes from the Baltic Air Freight Index, the Baltic Exchange’s weekly air cargo benchmark built on TAC Index data, as reported by IndexBox on 12 November. TAC said rates were at their highest point so far this year and well above the previous two peak-season highs. It put rate levels up 28.2% on a year earlier.
The biggest move was in Europe. Frankfurt outbound rose 9.9% week on week. London Heathrow outbound rose 5.6%.
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Our view is simple. The peak season has now reached Europe’s export lanes. It is not being driven by fuel, and it is not being driven by e-commerce parcels. It is being driven by a shortage of space and by high-value tech cargo, especially chips and the equipment that makes them. Forwarders should price the next five weeks on that basis.
A one-week reversal in Europe
The Frankfurt number matters because of what came just before it. In the seven days to 2 November, the Baltic index fell 1.1% overall, according to STAT Times. Frankfurt outbound fell 6.5% that week. London Heathrow outbound fell 23.2%, and Chicago outbound fell 4.2%. STAT Times described the Heathrow index as “more volatile” than the others.
One week later, Frankfurt and London both turned up. IndexBox reports that Frankfurt’s rise was led by gains to the US and China. Rates to the US across the Atlantic rebounded after the previous week’s dip. There were also gains on routes to Brazil, India and the UAE.
Put the two weeks together and the picture differs by airport. By our arithmetic, Frankfurt outbound is now about 3% above where it stood before the 2 November drop. London Heathrow is still about 19% below. A 5.6% rise does not undo a 23.2% fall. So “London turned up” is true, but London is not back.
Asia kept climbing too. Hong Kong outbound rose 4.6% week on week and stands 29.2% above a year ago. Shanghai outbound rose 5.7% and is 21.1% above a year ago (IndexBox). In the week to 2 November, Shanghai’s year-on-year lead was only 14.4% (STAT Times). It has widened since.
Fuel fell, rates rose anyway
Rates did not rise because airlines were paying more for fuel. IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor showed jet fuel down 6.5% week on week in the week ending 6 November, and 7% lower than a month earlier (IndexBox).
That does not mean fuel is cheap. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, wrote on 10 November that “still-elevated jet fuel prices” are holding up a higher floor under rates. But the direction is clear. Fuel went down. Rates went up. The gap is demand and space.
Freightos sees the same pressure on its own index. Levine wrote: “Air rates out of the Far East continued to climb last week on peak season demand.” China–US rates passed $8.00/kg, matching last year’s high, which was not reached until mid-December 2025. China–North Europe rose 11% to $4.87/kg, up 23% on a year earlier. He also wrote that “Transatlantic air cargo rates have climbed by 33% over the last month to $2.90/kg”.
Why the Atlantic gets tight every winter
Much of the world’s air cargo flies in the bellies of passenger planes. When airlines move to winter schedules, they cut passenger flights on quieter routes. That takes cargo space out with them.
IndexBox notes that transatlantic rates often rise at this time of year because “passenger operations are reduced for the quieter winter season”. Freightos lists “capacity reductions from winter schedules” as one driver of the 33% transatlantic jump. It also points to freighters, cargo-only aircraft, possibly moving to busier lanes.
History supports a strong November for Frankfurt. In its column for November 2025, published 5 December 2025, the Baltic Exchange’s guest commentary from Cargo Facts Consulting said Frankfurt’s index rose 11% over the month, with outbound gains after several quiet months. In the same month, London Heathrow was flat and Chicago rose 1%. Shanghai rose more than 16% and Hong Kong nearly 8%.
If this November follows that pattern, Frankfurt keeps rising while London and Chicago lag. The first week of data this month fits that pattern well.
What is filling the planes: chips, not parcels
Japanese forwarder Nippon Express reported its third-quarter results on 11 November. Air Cargo News reported revenue of ¥711.4bn, up 11.8% year on year. Profit rose 71.3% to ¥31.1bn, from ¥18.1bn a year earlier. The report does not say which profit line that is.
The company was clear about where its air growth came from. “Air forwarding volume rose year on year, driven by strong demand for semiconductor-related shipments amid the expansion of the AI market,” it said.
The other side of the mix is moving the other way. “Volume declined quarter on quarter due to a decrease in e-commerce-related cargo originating in Asia,” the company said. Air Cargo News also pointed to the end of the EU’s de minimis exemption, the rule that let low-value parcels enter duty-free, as a drag on e-commerce shipments.
Nippon Express did not report third-quarter air tonnage. For the first nine months, its air forwarding volume was 734,000 tonnes, up 8.3% year on year. In its Japan air business, volumes grew on shipments of chip-making equipment to Asia and the Americas. In October, Japan Airlines and Nippon Express launched a transport partnership on intra-Asia and North America–Asia routes, aimed at AI and semiconductor goods.
Freightos sees the same thing in pricing. Levine wrote that on Far East–North America lanes, “strong demand from data center hardware volumes has kept pressure on rates”.
Our reading: e-commerce used to be the volume that filled peak-season freighters out of Asia. That volume is shrinking. Tech cargo is taking its place, and tech shippers care more about speed and security than about the last cent per kilo. That makes rates stickier. A shipper moving chip-making equipment is less likely to wait for a cheaper flight.
What forwarders should do now
First, treat any spot quote, a price for a single shipment at today’s market rate, from late October as stale. That is especially true out of Frankfurt. The one-week drop to 2 November may have made some quotes look safe. The next week’s 9.9% rise undid it.
Second, do not read London’s rise as a full recovery. Heathrow outbound is still well below where it was before the late-October fall, by our arithmetic. Shippers out of London may still find better prices than out of Frankfurt. Check both before you book European exports to the US.
Third, on Asia lanes, plan for year-on-year comparisons to stay wide. Hong Kong at 29.2% and Shanghai at 21.1% above last year leave a lot of room. Customers who budgeted on 2025 rates will be short.
Fourth, watch the cargo mix. If your book is heavy on e-commerce out of Asia, you are now competing for space with tech shippers who will pay more. Locking in allocations, space agreed in advance with an airline, through mid-December matters more this year than last.
Fifth, do not expect falling fuel to pull rates down before Christmas. Fuel fell 6.5% in a week and rates still hit a 2026 high.
Sixth, talk to shippers now about the calendar. Black Friday, Thanksgiving and Christmas all fall inside the next six weeks, and TAC links the latest rise to the market entering the busiest weeks of the peak (IndexBox). A shipper who books two weeks out today may find the same flight priced higher next week. Short-validity quotes, of a few days rather than a few weeks, protect both sides. So does a clear note on what the price assumes about fuel and space.
Our prediction
Our prediction: through the end of November, Frankfurt outbound rises week on week in more weekly prints of the Baltic Air Freight Index than it falls. London Heathrow outbound does not regain the 23.2% it lost in the week to 2 November before the end of November. Shanghai and Hong Kong outbound stay at least 10% above year-ago levels in every weekly print until peak season ends in mid-December.
Why we expect Frankfurt to keep rising: its latest gain was led by the US and China lanes, winter schedules are taking passenger belly space out of the Atlantic, and last November Frankfurt rose 11% over the month. Fuel is falling, but it has not stopped rates rising. Space and tech cargo matter more, and we expect them to keep mattering until mid-December.
Sources
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