China–US air hits $7.76 a kilo, a 2026 high
Asia–US air freight climbs to $7.76 a kilo, 3% short of last December’s peak
Air freight from Asia to North America cost $7.76 a kilo last week. That is the figure in Freightos’ 3 November update for its Far East–North America lane. It is up 9% in a single week. It is the highest level of 2026, roughly 40% above the same week last year, and within 3% of the $8.00/kg peak the lane reached in early December 2025.
Our view is simple. The transpacific air market has not peaked. Rates are still going up, the drivers behind them are still in place, and the busiest weeks of the year are still ahead. Forwarders should price and book as if $8.00/kg will be broken, not as if the top is in.
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What the numbers show
Start with Freightos. Its update said Far East–North America rates “continued to climb last week, increasing 9% to $7.76/kg.” It added that the lane “is approaching the 2025 peak of $8.00/kg reached early last December.” Freightos put the cause down to “the peak season demand bump.”
Other lanes moved too. North Europe–North America air rates rose 12% in the week. China–North Europe rose 1%.
Asia–Europe air is a different story. Freightos put it at $4.39/kg, about level with the week before. That is 11% higher than a year ago but well below the roughly $5.25/kg seen earlier in 2026. Freightos said the lane is still adjusting “to decreases in e-commerce volumes on this lane.”
A second data set tells the same story. TAC Index figures, reported by Air Cargo News on 2 November, combine spot and contract prices. They show average Hong Kong outbound rates climbing from $7.16/kg at the start of October to $8.17/kg at the end of the month. That end-October level was 38.7% above a year earlier. Hong Kong to North America averaged $7.64/kg across October, up 34% year on year and up from $7.02/kg in September.
TAC’s reading of the market was blunt. It said sources suggest that “pressure for rates to rise further is still very much increasing.”
By our arithmetic, a 40% annual rise to $7.76/kg means the same lane was around $5.50/kg a year ago. A forwarder quoting from last year’s rate sheet is now short by more than $2 on every kilo.
Why rates keep rising
Three things are pushing transpacific air prices up at once.
The first is demand. IATA’s September market analysis, published on 29 October, said: “Asia-North America traffic increased by 17.0% year-on-year, extending its double-digit expansion to five months.” Globally, cargo traffic measured in CTKs (cargo tonne-kilometres, weight multiplied by distance flown) rose 7.7% year on year in September. Capacity grew only 2.7%. When demand grows almost three times faster than space, prices go up. Air Cargo News noted that AI and data-centre shipments are part of the transpacific demand.
The second is fuel. IATA said: “Jet fuel averaged USD 184.5 per barrel, up 17.5% from August and more than double its year-earlier level.” IATA and Platts data, cited by Air Cargo News, put jet fuel 118.5% above a year earlier in the week to 23 October. Air Cargo News linked the rise to the Middle East conflict. Airlines pass fuel costs on through fuel surcharges and higher base rates. That cost floor will not drop quickly.
The third is the calendar. The rate peak last year came in early December. Retail, electronics and year-end restocking all push volume into the next five weeks. There is no sign yet that this year will run differently.
Air and ocean are moving apart
While air climbs, ocean on the same trade is softening. The same Freightos update had Asia–US West Coast container rates flat on the week. Asia–US East Coast rates fell 6% to about $9,900 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit, a standard 40-foot container). Freightos also reported that some forwarders expect few further transpacific ocean increases as the trade heads into its slow season, even though carriers had planned rises of $2,000 to $3,000 per FEU.
Asia–Europe ocean is going the other way. Freightos put Asia–North Europe at about $3,595 per FEU, roughly level (its weekly index was up 1%), and Asia–Mediterranean up 3% to about $4,375 per FEU.
The split matters for routing advice. A shipper who can wait two or three extra weeks is getting a steadier ocean market to the US. A shipper who cannot wait is paying near-record air prices. The gap between the two options is widening, and so is the value of good advice on which goods truly need to fly.
What it means for forwarders
Several practical points follow.
Keep air quote validity short. On a lane that moved 9% in one week, a 14-day quote is a bet. Seven days, or a clear fuel-adjustment clause, is safer until the peak passes.
Blocked space is worth more than usual. Forwarders holding BSAs (block space agreements, where a forwarder commits in advance to buy space on set flights) have pricing power right now. Those buying on the spot market each week will face the highest prices and the least choice of flights.
Book December now. If last year is a guide, the tightest weeks are still to come. Shippers of servers, chips and other high-value electronics should lock space for the first half of December before the rate passes $8.00/kg.
Watch the other lanes into North America. The 12% weekly jump on North Europe–North America shows tightness is not only an Asia story. Forwarders with transatlantic westbound customers should warn them too.
Do not read Asia–Europe air as a guide to Asia–US. The two lanes are behaving very differently. Asia–Europe air is being held back by weaker e-commerce. Air Cargo News reported that EU charges on low-value parcels, a €3 charge plus an extra €2 handling charge from 1 November, have slowed demand growth on that lane. Transpacific air has no such brake.
Treat fuel as a separate line in every conversation. With jet fuel at roughly double last year’s price, customers will ask why rates are so high. Showing them the fuel component makes the price easier to defend and easier to adjust if fuel eases.
What could stop the climb
A fair view has to look at what could prove us wrong. There are three risks to the upward case.
Fuel could fall. A large part of this year’s rise is cost, not just demand. If oil supply eases, surcharges will come down, and spot rates with them. IATA warned the opposite risk is also live: further supply disruption could add to airline costs. On balance, we do not expect fuel relief inside the next eight weeks.
Capacity could catch up. Airlines respond to high rates by adding freighter flights and moving aircraft onto the busiest lanes. IATA’s figures show Asia Pacific carriers grew capacity by 4.9% in September, against 8.6% growth in the traffic they carried. Their load factor, the share of available space actually filled, rose 1.7 points to 50.7%. Globally, the load factor was 47.9%, up 2.2 points on a year earlier. Those numbers say space is getting tighter, not looser. Capacity is not catching up yet.
Demand could fade early. Peak seasons sometimes end sooner than expected, when shippers have pulled orders forward. Asia–Europe air has already shown what softer e-commerce does to rates. But the transpacific demand behind the current climb is broader than parcels. It includes data-centre equipment, which moves on project timelines rather than holiday sales. That makes an early drop less likely on this lane.
None of these risks looks strong enough today to reverse the trend before December.
Our prediction
Here is our call. Asia Pacific–US air rates will stay at least 30% above 2025 levels in every weekly WorldACD reading through the end of November 2026. Nothing in the latest data changes that view. If anything, the Freightos and TAC figures make it more likely.
We are adding a second call based on the new Freightos number. Freightos’ Far East–North America rate will pass $8.00/kg, and so beat last December’s peak, in at least one weekly update before 31 December 2026.
And a third, also ours: before the end of December 2026, at least one more large forwarder will announce a dedicated or chartered freighter service out of Asia aimed at server and semiconductor cargo. With demand up 17% on the lane and rates near $8.00/kg, the case for controlling your own lift has rarely been stronger.
Sources
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