Expeditors Q3 2026: air demand outruns the planes
Expeditors gains share in a short air market, and September was its best month
Expeditors International moved 19% more air freight by weight in September 2026 than in September 2025. The figure comes from the forwarder’s third-quarter results, released on 3 November. Its air tonnage grew 8% in July and 13% in August, so the quarter got stronger each month. Ocean volumes followed the same pattern. They rose 5% in July, 5% in August and 12% in September, measured in FEUs (forty-foot equivalent units, the standard count for containers).
The money grew faster than the volume. Revenue rose 42% to $4.11bn, from $2.89bn a year earlier. Operating income rose 55% to $445.4m, and net earnings attributable to shareholders rose 55% to $344.5m. Diluted earnings per share rose 62% to $2.65, from $1.64.
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What we think it means
Our view: the third quarter of 2026 was about scarce space, not just strong demand. Air demand grew faster than the supply of planes, and ocean capacity was tied up in congested Asian ports. In that kind of market, a forwarder that holds space and has the network to fill it gets paid well. Expeditors was set up for this.
We also think the result shows a gap opening between forwarders. Some are winning the new air business and some are not. The growth is concentrated in a few customer types and lanes, mainly AI hardware and South Asia exports. Forwarders that are not in those flows will not see a 19% month.
The numbers behind that view
Start with air. Airfreight services revenue was $1.54bn, against $1.02bn a year earlier, a rise of about 51%. Tonnage rose 13% over the quarter. When revenue grows four times as fast as volume, the extra money is mostly coming from price.
Expeditors says this directly. Its release says “airfreight rates remained elevated during the quarter, with demand outpacing available capacity.” It also explains why the supply of planes is short: “air capacity remains constrained by limited fleet expansion and ongoing new aircraft delivery delays.”
Air Cargo News did the margin arithmetic on 3 November. It calculates Expeditors’ airfreight operating profit, meaning air revenue minus air operating costs, at $375m, up from $253m. It puts the airfreight operating margin at 24.3%, slightly down from 24.8%. In other words, Expeditors passed nearly all of the higher cost of buying space on to customers and kept its share of each dollar about the same. The same report says air operating costs rose 52%. It links that rise partly to jet fuel, which it says was up more than 112% year on year according to the IATA/Platts fuel price monitor.
Where did the demand come from? The release names hyperscalers, the very large cloud computing and AI data-centre operators. Chief executive Daniel Wall puts it this way: “Demand from certain customers, such as the hyperscalers, has been outpacing the market overall.” Servers, chips and network gear are high-value, urgent and often too time-sensitive to wait for a ship. That makes them natural air cargo. The release says South Asia’s exports grew the most among regions. It also says China-to-US e-commerce tonnage has nearly recovered to the levels seen before May 2025, when the US ended the de minimis exemption (the rule that let low-value parcels enter duty-free).
Expeditors made one more supply point, quoted by Air Cargo News. It said capacity was also affected by aircraft redeployments on Asia-Europe e-commerce, caused by EU rules meant to curb low-value imports.
Now ocean. Ocean freight and ocean services revenue was $1.10bn, against $746m a year earlier, a rise of about 48% on a 7% rise in volume. This looks recent. Over the first nine months of 2026, ocean revenue was $2.41bn against $2.20bn, up only about 9%. All of the year’s gain came in the third quarter: first-half ocean revenue was down about 10%. The release says “Significant congestion at major Asian ports and transshipment hubs impacted the ocean markets,” and points to three back-to-back typhoons that halted port operations. Transshipment hubs are ports where containers are moved from one ship to another, such as Singapore. When they jam, delays spread across many routes.
Customs brokerage and other services brought in $1.46bn, against $1.13bn. The release says every product in this group grew by double digits. It credits new customers, more customs declarations, and tariff-related fees for additional entry lines and post-entry work (corrections and claims filed after goods have cleared). Those fees began in the third quarter of 2025. Our reading is that this is the last quarter in which they inflate the year-on-year comparison.
Gaining share while others shrink
Expeditors’ tonnage figure stands out next to its peers. C.H. Robinson, reporting on 28 October, said its air tonnage fell 4.0% in the third quarter and its ocean shipments rose 2.0%. Its Global Forwarding revenue still rose 46.1%, to $1.1bn, because rates were high. But it moved less air cargo than a year before.
So the same market produced a 13% volume gain at one big US forwarder and a 4% fall at another. Wall’s comment fits that gap: “We continue to gain share, particularly in markets that we have made a strategic focus.” He presents the quarter as a demand story rather than a disruption windfall. In his words, “the strength of demand for our products and services is what really drove Q3 performance.”
Expeditors grew without hiring much. Its full-time headcount was 20,463 on 30 September, against 20,170 a year earlier, up about 1.5%. Its Global Technology staff fell from 1,483 to 1,151, while North America and South Asia added people. Revenue up 42% on a workforce up 1.5% shows how much of the gain came from price and volume going through an existing network, not from new costs.
Investors had expected less. MarketBeat put the consensus forecast for earnings per share at $2.22, so Expeditors beat it by $0.43. The shares were up $0.76 at $201.32 in Tuesday trading, close to their 52-week high of $203.13. The average analyst price target on MarketBeat is $175.27, below where the stock trades, and the consensus rating is “Hold”. The company is also buying back its own shares. It repurchased 1.1 million shares in the quarter for $197.3m, at an average of $178.36.
Expeditors does not hold a results call. Investors can email written questions until 6 November, and management will answer selected ones in a later filing.
What last summer’s forecasts got right
This is a market that forecasters had to revise. Xeneta, the freight rate analytics firm, had earlier forecast that long-term air rates would fall 5% to 10% in 2026. On 17 July 2026 it reversed that call. It now expected long-term rates to rise 5% to 15% over the full year, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict. It also cut its capacity growth forecast to the lower end of a 2% to 3% range.
Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, said at the time: “Spot rates are now plateauing, but they are not falling.” He also said: “Shippers should expect demand growth to ease through H2.”
Expeditors’ September does not look like easing demand. Our reading is that the general market may have cooled, but specific flows such as AI hardware and South Asia exports have not. Forwarders with those customers are living in a different market from those without them.
What forwarders and shippers should do now
For shippers, the main point is timing. When the supply of planes is fixed and demand rises into peak season, space goes to whoever commits first. Q4 air space, and space for the weeks around Lunar New Year, should be booked now. Expect to be asked for firmer volume commitments in return.
For forwarders, the question is mix. Expeditors’ gains came from a narrow set of customers and lanes. Firms without technology or data-centre clients, or without strong South Asia export desks, should not expect the same results. They should, however, expect to pay the same higher prices for space.
For ocean, Expeditors itself warns against hoping for a quick fix: “We expect congestion and supply chain challenges to persist through the remainder of 2026.” Shippers on Asian lanes, especially via transshipment hubs, should build in extra transit time through December. The longer ocean delays last, the more urgent cargo moves to air. That keeps air space tight.
On customs, the year-on-year boost from tariff fees will fade from the fourth quarter. Brokerage growth from here has to come from new customers and higher volumes, not from a jump in fees.
Our call
Our prediction: when Expeditors reports its fourth-quarter 2026 results in early 2027, its airfreight tonnage for the quarter will be up at least 10% on the fourth quarter of 2025. The demand drivers it names, AI hardware and South Asia exports, are not seasonal, and the delays in new aircraft deliveries will not be fixed in three months. If tonnage growth falls below 10%, that will be the first sign that the air market is loosening.
Sources
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