Air spot rates reach $3.80/kg as tonnage slips
Less cargo, higher prices: air spot rates hit $3.80/kg in late October
Worldwide air cargo spot rates rose about 5% in week 43, which ran from 19 to 25 October 2026. The average spot rate reached $3.80/kg. That is 38% higher than a year earlier, according to WorldACD data reported by IndexBox on 1 November. It followed a rise of about 4% in week 42.
A spot rate is the price for a one-off booking at today’s market level. It is different from a contract rate, which a shipper or forwarder agrees for months at a time. Spot rates move first, so they show where the market is heading.
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The striking part is what happened to volume in the same week. Worldwide tonnage fell 2%. Capacity fell 1%. Prices went up anyway.
What we think is happening
Our view is simple. Air freight prices this autumn are being set by supply, not demand. There is less space in the air than the market wants, and the fuel to fly it costs far more than last year. More cargo is not the reason rates are rising.
That matters because supply problems do not ease when shippers slow down. A demand-led rally fades when orders fade. A supply-led one lasts until planes come back or fuel gets cheaper. Neither looks likely before the year-end peak is over.
We also think forwarders who priced the peak on early-October numbers have under-quoted. The gap between those quotes and today’s buy rates is already meaningful, and it is still widening.
The numbers behind the call
Start with the two-week change. In week 41 (5–11 October), the global spot rate was flat at $3.55/kg, STAT Times reported, citing WorldACD. Its lead read: “Global air cargo spot rates remained stable at $3.55 per kilo in week 41”. By week 43 the spot rate was $3.80/kg. That is $0.25/kg more in two weeks.
Now look at volume over the same period. In week 41, global tonnage was 9% above a year earlier. In week 43 it was only 2% above, per IndexBox. So year-on-year volume growth shrank from 9% to 2%. Over the same two weeks, the year-on-year price gap widened, from 34% to 38% on spot.
The full-market rate tells the same story. This is the average of spot and contract prices together. It was flat at $3.13/kg in week 41. In week 43 it rose 3% to $3.33/kg, up 31% on last year.
The gap between those two measures is worth watching. In week 41, spot sat $0.42/kg above the full-market rate. In week 43 the gap was $0.47/kg. When spot pulls away from the blended rate, contract prices are lagging the market. Shippers on fixed contracts are protected for now. But airlines see the same numbers. Expect them to push for higher contract rates, or to give contract cargo lower priority, when space is short.
Capacity explains much of the gap. Global capacity fell 1% week on week in week 43. IndexBox wrote that the drop out of Asia Pacific was “largely caused by a typhoon that disrupted flights in Taiwan.” Capacity is still about 1% above last year, helped by extra freighter services. But that is a thin cushion in peak season.
The Gulf remains the biggest hole. Arabian Gulf capacity was 19% below its level in week 7, in late February, before the US-Israel war against Iran, per IndexBox. Middle East and South Asia capacity overall was 13% below that point. Riyadh was almost entirely closed to international flights that week. Two weeks earlier, in week 41, STAT Times put Gulf capacity 20% below late February. In other words, almost none of that lost space has come back.
Fuel is the other half. In week 41, jet fuel prices were 111% higher than a year earlier, according to IATA and Platts figures cited by STAT Times. Airlines pass much of that on through fuel surcharges and higher base rates.
Some of the volume dip has simple causes. Middle East and South Asia tonnage fell 6% week on week. IndexBox put that down mainly to lower volumes from India and Sri Lanka during national holidays. That should partly reverse. But it does not explain why prices kept rising while volume fell everywhere.
Where the rises hit hardest
The spot rises were not even. By origin, spot rates rose 7% ex-Europe, 6% ex-Asia Pacific and 5% ex-Central and South America in week 43, per IndexBox.
Two Asia Pacific lanes are moving in opposite directions. Asia Pacific to US volume rose 9%. Asia Pacific to EU chargeable weight was down 16% year on year. Chargeable weight is the weight an airline bills on. It is the actual weight or a volume-based weight, whichever is higher.
The EU drop has a clear cause. The EU removed its de minimis exemption for items under €150 on 1 July. De minimis is the threshold below which parcels entered without customs duty. IndexBox linked the fall to that change, “particularly since the European Union removed its de minimis exemptions on lower-value items.” In our view, cheap e-commerce parcels were a large share of that lane, and without the exemption a big part of that flow has gone.
The US lane is still growing. That keeps pressure on transpacific space, which is where the tightest pricing sits.
How this compares with last year
The seasonal pattern is not new. In week 43 of 2025, WorldACD also reported a jump. Air Cargo Week reported then that global spot prices rose by an average of 4% week on week in week 43 of 2025 (20–26 October). That week, China to US spot rates rose 11% to $5.40/kg, their highest level of 2025 at the time. Indian tonnage fell about 30% around Diwali.
So late October usually brings a lift. The difference this year is the starting point. Rates are rising from a level already more than a third above last year. And they are doing it with weaker volume growth, not stronger.
That is why we read this as a supply story. Last year’s peak was carried by demand on the transpacific. This year’s is being carried by missing Gulf capacity, expensive fuel and short-term weather hits like the Taiwan typhoon.
What forwarders should do now
Re-quote. Any air quote built on week 41 or week 42 levels is likely below today’s market. Short validity periods make sense until the peak is over. Seven days is safer than 30.
Check your surcharge terms. With fuel at roughly double last year’s price, fuel surcharges can move fast. Make sure customer contracts let you pass changes through.
Split your lanes. Asia Pacific to Europe looks soft on volume because e-commerce has left. That may give room to negotiate block space or better rates for general cargo. Asia Pacific to US is the opposite. Book early and expect to pay up.
Watch the Gulf. Routings through Gulf hubs are still short of space. Shippers relying on those connections for Asia–Europe or South Asia–Europe moves should hold back-up routings.
Plan for the holidays. Peak-season demand from Diwali, Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Christmas is still ahead, and IndexBox reported that “WorldACD indicated that current sustained high rates are likely to rise further in the coming weeks.” Volume that dipped for holidays in India and Sri Lanka should also return.
Our prediction
Our prediction: Asia Pacific–US air rates will stay at least 30% above 2025 levels in every weekly WorldACD reading through the end of November 2026. The week 43 data support that call. Volume on that lane is up 9%, Gulf capacity has not come back and fuel remains far above last year.
A second call, also ours: before the end of December 2026, at least one more large forwarder will announce a dedicated or chartered freighter service out of Asia aimed at server and semiconductor cargo.
Both calls rest on the same reading. Space is short and fuel is dear, and neither changes in a month. Gulf capacity has barely moved in two weeks. Fuel was more than double last year’s price as recently as week 41. Holiday volumes in India and Sri Lanka should return, and the Western shopping peak is still ahead. A further rise is the likelier path.
What would prove us wrong? A sharp fall in jet fuel, a quick reopening of Gulf hubs, or a slump in US-bound demand. None of those showed up in the week 43 data.
Sources
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