Air Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read

Air cargo rates stay firm into Q4, with China–US the soft spot

Air cargo enters Q4 25% dearer than last year, while China–US dips over Golden Week. Global air cargo spot rates were 25.5% higher than a year earlier in the week to 5 October, according to TAC Index. The one soft lane was China–North America, which fell 18% in a week to about $5.60/kg as China shut for Golden Week, according to Freightos. Our view: the China dip is a holiday lull, not a turn. Jet fuel costs have doubled, and Xeneta says fixed one-year air deals are becoming the exception. Forwarders should quote short validities. Our call: China–North America rates are back above $6/kg by the end of October.

Air cargo enters Q4 25% dearer than last year, and the China–US dip won’t last
Global air cargo spot rates rose 5.0% in the week to 5 October and finished the week 25.5% higher than a year earlier. That is according to the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00), the global spot benchmark published by TAC Index. A spot rate is the price for booking space now, as opposed to a contract rate agreed in advance.
The one lane heading the other way was China to North America. Freightos’ air index for that lane fell 18% in a single week, to about $5.60/kg, as demand eased over Golden Week. Golden Week is China’s national holiday from 1 to 7 October, when factories close and exports slow.
So the question for anyone quoting Q4 business is simple. Is the China–US drop the start of something, or a holiday blip?
Our view is that it is a blip. Air rates this autumn are being held up by cost, mainly fuel, and by disruption in the Middle East, not by booming demand. A one-week holiday does nothing to either of those. When Chinese factories reopen, we expect transpacific rates to recover most of the lost ground within weeks.

Rates are high for a reason that hasn’t gone away

Start with fuel. Average jet fuel prices were up 108% year on year by 2 October, according to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, as cited by TAC Index. TAC Index notes that fuel typically makes up between a quarter and a third of the total cost of moving air cargo. Air Cargo News, reporting Xeneta’s September data, describes jet fuel as roughly double its level before the conflict in the Middle East began.
TAC Index says carriers had bought fuel forward after the Iran conflict began in late February, but that buffer is limited. In other words, some of the fuel increase has not yet fully reached freight rates. TAC Index’s own judgement is that higher fuel prices are more likely than not to set a floor under rates and push them higher into peak season.
Now look at demand. It is growing, but not fast. Xeneta, the freight rate benchmarking firm, put global air cargo volumes up 6% year on year in September, with capacity up only 2%, according to Air Cargo News. Its dynamic load factor, a measure of how full aircraft are by both weight and volume, rose two points to 62%. Spot rates were 27% higher than a year earlier and up 2% on August.
WorldACD, the air cargo market data firm, tells the same story for late September (week 39). Worldwide chargeable weight was down 4% on the week but up 5% on the year. Chargeable weight is the weight an airline bills on, which is the greater of the actual weight or the space the cargo takes up. Worldwide pricing was up 2% on the week and 27% on the year.
Rates up a quarter on volumes up a twentieth. That gap is the clearest sign that cost and disruption, not demand, are doing the work.

Where it is hottest: the Middle East, India and the transatlantic

The biggest increases sit on lanes touched by the Middle East disruption. WorldACD put average rates from MESA (Middle East and South Asia) to the USA up 70% year on year in week 39, and MESA to Europe up 63%. Asia Pacific to USA was up 38%.
TAC Index says spot rates out of India were about 70% higher than a year earlier to the US, and well over 80% higher to Europe, by early October.
Some Western origins have climbed too. TAC Index’s Chicago outbound index (BAI50) was up 77.2% year on year, though it notes that is against depressed levels a year earlier. Frankfurt outbound (BAI20) was up 46.0%. Hong Kong outbound (BAI30) rose 6.6% over four weeks and was 22.3% higher than last year. Shanghai outbound (BAI80) was the calmest of the major origins, up 1.0% on the month and 18.3% on the year.
Capacity in the Gulf took a fresh hit this week. Houthi strikes on Riyadh and Abha airports killed three people, Saudi authorities said, according to Reuters, and the Houthis claimed further attacks on Riyadh airport on Thursday 8 October, according to The Loadstar. Saudia Group said operations were back to normal by 6pm local time, but Lufthansa and Air India suspended Riyadh services. Najran and Jazan airports are closed until 15 October, and Abha is limited to daytime flights.
Data from Rotate, cited by The Loadstar, showed outbound freighter and widebody passenger capacity from Riyadh down 34% over 24 hours to 848 tonnes, compared with the same period a week earlier. Freighter-only capacity into Riyadh fell 77% over the same 24 hours. King Khalid International in Riyadh handled 576,600 tonnes in 2025, making it Saudi Arabia’s busiest cargo airport.
That matters beyond Saudi Arabia. Every aircraft that avoids a Gulf airport is lift that has to be found somewhere else, just as peak season starts.

Why the China–US dip looks temporary

The China–North America fall lines up exactly with the holiday. WorldACD said China “shuts down for the Golden Week holiday between 1 and 7 October, further impacting its exports.” C.H. Robinson, in its October market update, said: “Rates are expected to remain relatively measured during the first part of October while China is in its holiday slowdown.”
The same update then looks past the holiday. “Asia-origin pricing could firm more noticeably from mid-October,” C.H. Robinson wrote, particularly on transpacific lanes carrying technology and new-product freight. It said Asia Pacific to US demand “was already running 17% above last year in mid-September”.
The demand mix supports that. Freightos says data centre components are now a significant driver of global air demand growth, even as e-commerce shrinks in some major markets. Air Cargo News, reporting Xeneta’s figures, said China–US e-commerce exports were up 17% year on year in August, while China–Europe e-commerce fell 40% after the EU’s €3 per-item customs duty.
Last year gives a useful guide. During Golden Week 2025, China to US spot rates fell 7% in a week to $4.07/kg, according to WorldACD data reported by AJOT. The following week, as factories reopened, they jumped 19% to $4.90/kg, “their highest level since mid April”, according to WorldACD data reported by Air Freight News. Worldwide average rates were back at their pre-holiday level within a week.
There is a contrary view, and it deserves a hearing. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, told Air Cargo News that “What will happen in Q4 is too early to call, but the indicators currently point towards a muted final quarter of the year”. He said Xeneta was not picking up signals of a strong peak from shippers and forwarders.
We don’t think that contradicts our call. A muted peak in volume terms can still mean high prices when fuel has doubled and Gulf capacity is shrinking. Airlines also told a different story this week. Dominic Perret, a director at Cathay Cargo, told The Loadstar: “We are anticipating a strong peak season”. He added that “one of our main challenges is having sufficient capacity to meet demand.”
The last time the market called a quiet peak, it was half right. In November 2024, FreightWaves reported that the peak was passing with “no big bang”, yet the same report had China to North America spot rates up about 17% over three weeks, to nearly $7/kg. Quiet volumes and firm prices can live together.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

First, don’t price Q4 transpacific business off this week’s rate. A rate set during Golden Week is a low point, and you may be quoting under cost by the time the freight flies.
Second, keep validities short. Shippers are already moving this way. According to Xeneta, cited by Air Cargo News, 60% of new air contracts starting in Q3 2026 ran three months or less, up from 25% a year earlier. Twelve-month deals fell to 25% of new contracts from 40%. Van de Wouw put it plainly: “A one-year deal without any adjustment mechanism is becoming more the exception than the rule.”
Xeneta’s preferred fix is to link contract prices to the all-in rates airlines charge forwarders, rather than relying on a fuel surcharge alone. Forwarders who can offer an index-linked option, with a clear reference such as a published spot index, will find Q4 tenders easier to win than those offering a fixed price.
Third, book Middle East and South Asia freight early and expect extra charges. With Riyadh capacity down and Gulf hubs under pressure, space on Saudi-bound and India-origin cargo will be tight through peak. Customers on those lanes should hear about routing options now, not when a booking rolls.
Fourth, watch ocean. Van de Wouw called it the factor Xeneta is watching most closely: “When ocean becomes this unreliable and this expensive, some volume moves to air.” C.H. Robinson also describes ocean-to-air conversion as a swing factor rather than a base case. If ocean schedules slip further, the transpacific could tighten quickly.
Fifth, the transatlantic is not a cheap fallback. C.H. Robinson said transatlantic “pricing continues to hold relatively firm”, with schedule changes and specialist freighter needs limiting options.

Our call

We expect the Golden Week dip to be over within three weeks. Our call is that Freightos’ China–North America rate is back above $6/kg by the end of October, as Chinese factories restart and technology freight returns to the transpacific.
More broadly, we expect global air spot rates to still be at least 20% above last year’s level when November closes, measured by the Baltic Air Freight Index. The reason is that the two things holding rates up, fuel and Middle East disruption, show no sign of easing before year end.
If we are wrong, it will be because demand for technology freight fades faster than expected. That is the number to watch in the WorldACD and Xeneta reports over the next four weeks.

Sources