Air Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read

Air cargo spot holds at $3.55/kg as volumes slip

Air volumes fell three weeks running. Spot rates did not move. Global air cargo spot rates held at $3.55/kg in week 41 (5–11 October), WorldACD data show, even as tonnage fell 1% for a third straight week. Our view: this rate floor is held up by costs, not demand. Jet fuel is up 111% year on year, and Gulf capacity is still 20% below late February, per WorldACD. Spot rates are 34% higher than a year ago. For forwarders, the fuel surcharge will move Q4 quotes more than the base rate. Our call: global spot ends October at or above $3.55/kg, with no post-holiday dip.

Air rates refuse to fall after Golden Week. Fuel and the Gulf are why. Global air cargo spot rates held at $3.55/kg in week 41, which ran from 5 to 11 October. That is the WorldACD figure, as reported by STAT Times on 19 October. It came in a week when global tonnage fell 1%. That was the third weekly fall in a row. Global capacity also dropped 1%.
The full-market rate, which blends spot prices with longer contract prices, held at $3.13/kg.
So volumes are drifting down and prices are standing still. That gap is the story.

What we think it means

Our view is simple. When fewer kilos fly and the price per kilo does not budge, demand is not setting the price. Two other things are: the cost of jet fuel, and how much lift is available, especially through the Gulf hubs.
We think that floor is solid. We do not expect a post-holiday slide in air rates this year. We expect rates to stay flat or edge up into the peak. Most of the year-on-year rise in what shippers pay will come from fuel, not from a boom in cargo.
That matters for how forwarders price, quote and talk to customers over the next ten weeks.

What the numbers show

Start with the volume drop. WorldACD said the fall was “mainly due to China’s annual Golden Week holiday,” with smaller effects from holidays in Taiwan and South Korea.
The Asia Pacific numbers are the sharpest. Chargeable weight from the region fell 1% in week 41, after a 2% fall in week 40 and a 6% fall in week 39. Chargeable weight is the weight airlines bill on: the actual weight or the space a shipment takes up, whichever is greater. Combined tonnage from Asia Pacific in weeks 40 and 41 was 7% lower than in the two weeks before. WorldACD called that a steeper decline than the 4% fall in the same period last year.
Yet Asia Pacific spot rates fell only 3%, to $4.83/kg.
Other regions moved in different directions. Middle East and South Asia spot rates fell 2%. Africa rose 10%. Central and South American tonnage fell 4%, and North American tonnage fell 3%.
Now the year-on-year view. Global tonnage is up 9% on last year, matching September’s growth. Full-market rates are up 29%. Spot rates are up 34%. WorldACD put the higher rates down to continued disruption to air cargo capacity linked to the US-Iran conflict, and to jet fuel prices, which it said were up 111% year on year.
The capacity picture explains a lot. Capacity in Asia Pacific and in the Middle East and South Asia each fell 3% in week 41. Gulf capacity fell 4%. That wiped out the 4% gain from the week before. Gulf capacity is still 20% below where it was in late February. WorldACD also expects renewed conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis to cause further disruption in the Gulf.

A second index says the same thing

The TAC Index tracks the prices forwarders actually pay. Its global Baltic Air Freight Index fell 2.1% in the seven days to 12 October, STAT Times reported. It was still 24.3% higher than a year earlier.
The lanes were mixed. Shanghai outbound fell 2.1% on the week. Hong Kong outbound edged up 0.2%. Frankfurt outbound rose 3.0% and London Heathrow outbound jumped 12.1%. Chicago outbound fell 29.0% after strong recent gains, mainly on Asia routes.
TAC said the dip “was not unusual for the Golden Week holiday period in China when factories often shut down and volumes decrease,” Air Cargo News reported. It added: “Sources suggested the market remained pretty firm as it enters the traditional peak season.” TAC also said “E-commerce and other big shippers with products launching had now locked in capacity for peak season.”
STAT Times added that some shippers, including AI hyperscalers (the giant cloud and data-centre operators), had not yet secured space. That could push rates higher.
TAC’s monthly lane averages, which blend spot and contract prices paid by forwarders, show the same split. Hong Kong to North America averaged $7.02/kg in September, up from $6.98/kg in August and 31% higher than a year earlier, Air Cargo News reported on 6 October. Hong Kong to Europe averaged $4.80/kg, up from $4.58/kg and 8.8% higher year on year. So the transpacific is carrying much more of the rise than Asia-Europe.
TAC also said at the time that rates were “far from keeping pace yet with surging jet fuel prices.” That is worth noting. If carriers feel they are still behind on fuel, they have a reason to push surcharges further, not to cut.
On fuel, the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor showed prices up 3.1% in the week to 9 October and 111.2% higher year on year, STAT Times reported.

What happened last time

It helps to look back. In the week to 14 October 2024, the same TAC index fell 1.2% as Chinese factories restarted after Golden Week, Air Cargo Week reported. Even then, sources said spot rates were already edging up again ahead of peak. A small October dip followed by firmer rates is the normal pattern.
What is different this year is the base. Xeneta said in July that the Middle East escalation on 28 February removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. At that time, Xeneta raised its full-year forecast for long-term air rates from a 5–10% fall to a 5–15% rise.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, said then: “Spot rates are now plateauing, but they are not falling.” He also said: “Demand keeps defying gravity.” Three months on, the WorldACD data still fit that description.
The big carriers are seeing it in their profits. DHL Group said on 16 October that its Express division earned EBIT of around EUR 1,035 million in Q3. EBIT is earnings before interest and tax. DHL said: “This result had a limited support of around EUR 100 million from capacity constraints in the air freight market.” FreightWaves, covering the results on 19 October, wrote that “The tight air freight market also boosted results.” It also noted that “Heavyweight air has been a point of emphasis for the company this year.”
When the biggest integrator says tight air capacity is worth about EUR 100 million in one quarter, it tells you the squeeze is real and not just a quirk of one index.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

First, fuel surcharges. With jet fuel up about 111% on last year, the fuel line is doing much of the work in any year-on-year price rise. Forwarders should expect carriers to keep adjusting surcharges often. Quotes with long validity periods carry risk. We would keep air quote validity short through the peak and spell out the fuel basis clearly.
Second, routing. Gulf capacity is still a fifth below February. Routes from India, South Asia and parts of Southeast Asia to Europe lean heavily on Gulf hubs. Any new disruption there hits those lanes first. Shippers on those lanes should have a back-up routing in hand.
Third, timing. TAC’s sources say e-commerce players and large launch shippers have already locked in peak space. That leaves less room for late bookers. Forwarders with customers still holding out for a post-Golden Week bargain should tell them plainly that the data do not support one.
Fourth, lane gaps. Europe outbound strengthened while Asia-Europe stayed weaker than transpacific and intra-Asia, STAT Times reported, citing TAC data. Forwarders buying Asia-Europe capacity may find the best value there in the short term. Transpacific and Europe-to-US are where we would expect price pressure.
Fifth, the client conversation. Volumes are up 9% on last year globally, but the price rise is far bigger. Shippers will see higher invoices and assume the market is booming. It is not, exactly. It is a market with less lift and much more expensive fuel. Explaining that helps when customers push back on Q4 pricing.

Our call

Our prediction: WorldACD’s global spot rate will stay at or above $3.55/kg in every week through mid-November. Asia Pacific spot will be back above $4.83/kg by week 44, the week starting 26 October, as factories return to full output after the holidays. If the Gulf sees fresh disruption from the Saudi-Houthi conflict, we expect Middle East and South Asia rates to rise first, within two to three weeks of any incident. And we expect year-on-year spot rate growth to stay above 25% through the end of Q4, driven mainly by fuel.

Sources