Friday, October 30, 2026
The news that moves freight
Air Oct 30, 2026 · 7 min read

Air cargo grows 7.7% in September as jet fuel doubles

The planes are filling up faster than the fuel bill can be passed on

Global air cargo demand rose 7.7% year on year in September, according to data IATA, the airline trade body, released on 29 October. On international routes alone, demand rose 8.6%. Capacity rose only 2.7%.

IATA measures demand in CTK, or cargo tonne-kilometres: one tonne of cargo flown one kilometre. Capacity is measured in ACTK, or available cargo tonne-kilometres: the space airlines put in the air, whether it is filled or not.

Here is what we think. The headline growth is real and broad. But the number that will shape what forwarders pay this peak season is not 7.7%. It is 103.4%. That is how much higher IATA says jet fuel was in September than a year earlier. Demand is growing almost three times as fast as capacity, and fuel costs have more than doubled. That points one way: tighter space and higher surcharges through November and December.

What IATA reported

The core numbers, all from IATA’s release:

  • Demand (CTK): up 7.7% year on year, and up 8.6% on international routes.
  • Capacity (ACTK): up 2.7% overall, and up 3.3% on international routes.
  • Load factor: 47.9%, up 2.2 percentage points. The load factor is the share of available space actually filled.
  • Jet fuel: 103.4% higher than a year earlier.

Air Cargo News adds that jet fuel rose 17.5% month on month in September alone.

A load factor under 50% can look like a market with plenty of room. It is not. The industry figure counts every kilo of space on every flight. That includes the bellies of passenger jets on routes with little cargo, and freighters flying back near-empty from markets that import more than they export. The useful signal is the direction. A 2.2-point rise in a single year means the spare space is being used up. And it is being used up where forwarders feel it most: on the busy head-haul lanes out of Asia. A head-haul lane is the busier direction of a trade route, where demand sets the price.

The fuel figure matters just as much. Fuel is one of an airline’s largest operating costs, and freighters burn it whether the deck is full or half empty. When it doubles in a year, a flight that used to break even at a given rate may now lose money at that rate.

Every region grew. By airline region, IATA put North American carriers first with demand up 11.8%. They were followed by Asia-Pacific carriers (8.6%), Latin America and the Caribbean (6.7%), Africa (4.7%), Europe (4.5%) and the Middle East (3.8%). IATA says capacity fell for European and African carriers and rose for the rest.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, opened her comments with the good news: “Air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions.” She then gave the reasons: “Stronger global trade and manufacturing provided a supportive backdrop, while AI-related shipments helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific.”

IATA’s backdrop figures support her. Global trade rose 3.6% in August. The global manufacturing PMI reached 53.8 in August, its highest in five years. A PMI, or purchasing managers’ index, is a survey of factory managers. A reading above 50 means activity is expanding. IATA says new export orders also hit a five-year high.

Growth is speeding up, not levelling off

Set September next to August and the trend is clear.

In its August release on 29 September, IATA reported demand up 4.4% and capacity down 0.1%. The load factor was 46.0%. Asia–North America was up 13.2%, in its seventh straight month of growth. Europe–Middle East was down 12.1%, in its sixth straight month of decline. Jet fuel was 79.2% above a year earlier.

A month later, nearly every one of those numbers has moved further the same way. Demand growth went from 4.4% to 7.7%. Asia–North America went from 13.2% to 17.0%. Europe–Middle East went from minus 12.1% to minus 18.0%. Fuel went from 79.2% to 103.4% above the year before.

Capacity did respond, from minus 0.1% to plus 2.7%. But it is still well behind demand. Airlines are not adding space fast enough to catch up, and with fuel this expensive they have little reason to rush. Every extra flight costs more to operate than it did a year ago.

In August, IATA said yields had risen month on month for the first time since April. A yield is the revenue an airline earns per kilo flown. In September’s release, Owens Thomsen struck a harder tone: “The challenge is cost. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared with a year ago, and yields have not kept pace.”

She added: “There is no shortage of goods to ship, but doing that profitably in the face of persistently high fuel prices has become more challenging.”

We read that as a carrier trade body telling the market that prices have room to rise. When demand is strong and the people supplying space say they are not earning enough, the gap tends to close through the invoice. That usually means fuel surcharges first, and base rates where space is tightest.

The lanes are splitting

The averages hide two very different markets.

The strong side, per IATA and Air Cargo News:

  • Asia–North America: up 17.0%, its eighth straight month of growth.
  • Within Asia: up 10.2%.
  • Europe–North America: up 9.3%, its fifth straight month of growth.
  • Europe–Asia: up 6.0%.
  • Africa–Asia: up 2.6%.

The weak side:

  • Europe–Middle East: down 18.0%.
  • Middle East–Asia: down 10.2%.

Air Cargo News puts both falls down to the ongoing Middle East conflict; IATA’s release does not name a cause. Middle East carriers had the weakest demand growth of any region, at 3.8%, while IATA says their capacity was rising. That is the one region where space is growing into softer demand.

The transpacific is the other end of the scale. IATA ties its double-digit growth to AI-related shipments. In our reading, that means servers, chips and data-centre gear. These goods are high in value, light for their worth and urgent. That kind of cargo will pay for air even at high rates. It is also concentrated in a small number of origin and destination pairs, so the squeeze shows up on specific gateways before it shows up in global averages.

What it means for forwarders

Our view on what to do with this, lane by lane.

Transpacific eastbound. This is where space gets tight first. AI-related freight competes with e-commerce and the normal holiday peak for the same main-deck and belly space. Forwarders with block space agreements (space reserved ahead on set flights) should check what is left for November and December now. Those buying on the spot market should expect quotes to move week to week.

Fuel surcharges. With fuel up 103.4% on the year and 17.5% in one month, carriers that adjust surcharges to an index will keep raising them. Forwarders should check how each carrier sets its fuel surcharge and how often it changes. Quotes to shippers should say clearly whether fuel is fixed or passed through. A quote that locks in today’s fuel cost for a December shipment carries real risk.

Gulf hub routings. Forwarders who route Asia–Europe cargo through Gulf hubs, including sea-air moves, are watching a lane that has now shrunk for seven months in a row on Europe–Middle East. Owens Thomsen did not single out the region in her quoted comments. But the data shows Middle East carriers adding space while the lanes they serve shrink. That could mean softer pricing on some Gulf routings. It could also mean schedule cuts if the conflict worsens. Forwarders should keep a non-Gulf backup routing priced.

Europe–North America. Up 9.3% with European carriers cutting capacity, this lane may tighten more than shippers expect. It gets less attention than the transpacific, but the same mix of rising demand and flat supply is there.

Shippers. Mode shift (moving freight from air to ocean) becomes more attractive as air costs climb. But the goods driving the transpacific are the least likely to switch. Expect general cargo, not tech cargo, to be the first to move to sea-air or ocean if prices keep rising.

Our prediction

Our call: IATA’s October data, due around the end of November, will show Asia–North America growth above 10% year on year again. We also expect global demand growth to beat capacity growth again. And we expect at least one major Asia-Pacific carrier to raise its published cargo fuel surcharge before mid-December.

What would prove us wrong? A sharp drop in jet fuel prices, or a fall in AI-related orders. Either would show up first in the transpacific numbers.

Sources