Thursday, October 22, 2026
The news that moves freight
Air Oct 22, 2026 · 7 min read

China–US air prices jump 19% in a week

China–US air spot hits $6.88/kg after a 19% weekly jump. Air cargo from China to North America rose 19% in a week to $6.88/kg, the Freightos Air Index shows (update of 21 October). China–North Europe rose 8% to $3.87/kg. Our view: this is peak season arriving, not a short holiday catch-up. Forwarder Freight Right counts “two to three rounds of price increases” since Chinese factories reopened on 8 October. C.H. Robinson said Asia–US demand was 17% above last year in mid-September. Air quotes for November need repricing now. Our call: WorldACD’s global spot rate stays at or above $3.55/kg every week through mid-November.

China–US air prices jump 19% in a week. This is peak season, not a holiday hangover.

Air cargo from China to North America got 19% more expensive in a single week. The Freightos Air Index, a weekly measure of spot air prices, put the lane at $6.88 per kilo in its update published on 21 October. Spot means the price for cargo booked now, as opposed to contract rates agreed months ahead.

The move was not limited to the US. China to North Europe rose 8% to $3.87/kg. North Europe to North America rose 2%, though Freightos did not print a price for that lane.

Freightos offered two readings. Its research head, Judah Levine, wrote that ex-China rates rose “possibly on a post-Golden Week backlog rebound or signalling the start of peak season pressure.” Golden Week is China’s National Day holiday in early October, when many factories shut.

What we think is happening

Our view: this is the start of the fourth-quarter peak, and it will not fade in a fortnight.

A backlog rebound is a one-off. Cargo that piled up during the holiday gets flown, and prices settle. What we see on the transpacific looks different. Prices have risen in several steps, not one. The demand behind them was building before the holiday. Airlines cut capacity on purpose. And fuel is adding cost at the same time. Those four things point to a market that stays tight into November, not one that loosens after a week of catch-up.

That is our opinion. Here is the evidence.

The proof: steps, demand, capacity and fuel

Several rounds of increases. Freight Right, a US forwarder, published its market update on 21 October, using its week-41 rate sheet. It said “the market has seen two to three rounds of price increases since factories resumed work on Oct. 8.” It also said further increases were expected. A single backlog does not usually produce two or three separate price rounds in under two weeks.

Demand was already strong. On 1 October, before factories reopened, C.H. Robinson wrote that “Asia Pacific-to-U.S. demand was already running 17% above last year in mid-September.” It named technology freight as one of the strongest drivers: servers, chip-making equipment and data centre parts. It also said “Asia-origin pricing could firm more noticeably from mid-October.” That forecast has landed almost to the week.

Freight Right said the same about cargo mix: “Chips and other technology products began shipping as factories resumed operations.” It added that Black Friday, Christmas and other holiday shipments are expected to keep demand high through November and December.

Capacity was cut, not lost. Freight Right said “Airlines proactively canceled flights during National Day, keeping available cargo space tight despite the factory shutdown.” In other words, airlines did not fly empty planes through the holiday. They took capacity out, and they have not rushed to put it all back. C.H. Robinson had flagged early signs of tighter space, including “Fewer direct flights,” fewer main-deck options (space on freighters for big pallets, not the belly of passenger jets) and earlier booking cut-offs.

Fuel is pushing up the base. Freightos said the global air benchmark is 30% higher than a year ago “on elevated fuel costs and volume growth.” Transpacific air is 25% higher year on year. Freight Right said “Rising October fuel costs contributed to higher pricing on China-U.S. services.”

The ocean side is calm. Freightos reported Asia–US West Coast container prices as level for the week. So the air jump is not cargo spilling over from a squeezed ocean market. It is air demand in its own right.

What the actual quotes look like

Index figures are averages. Forwarders sell real quotes. Freight Right’s week-41 sheet gave these ranges for standard-density cartons from China:

  • Los Angeles (LAX): about $5.85–7.69/kg, depending on origin and routing.
  • San Francisco (SFO): about $5.85–6.77/kg.
  • New York (JFK): about $6.88–8/kg, with direct Shanghai–JFK at the top end.

Note that this sheet predates the Freightos index move. If prices rose again in the week to 20 October, as the index suggests, the top of these ranges may already be the middle.

Freight Right’s own advice is blunt: “Quotes should be reconfirmed before booking as airlines continue to adjust rates.” It also said “upward rate pressure is expected to continue through the end of December.”

What happened last year, and why Europe is different

This time last year, the transpacific also climbed after the October holidays. WorldACD, a separate air cargo data provider, reported that in week 43 of 2025 (20–26 October) China–US spot rates rose 11% to $5.40/kg, the highest level of that year. Asia Pacific to the US rose 8% that week after a 6% rise the week before. The two indices are built differently, so the numbers are not directly comparable. But the pattern is the same: a late-October climb that carried on rather than reversed.

This year the climb is steeper and earlier. That fits the 17% demand growth C.H. Robinson saw and the fuel costs Freightos points to.

The cargo mix has also changed. In recent years, cheap parcels from Chinese online sellers filled a large share of transpacific freighters. C.H. Robinson said e-commerce plays a smaller part in this year’s peak, because US changes to the rules on low-value imports have cut some of those flows. That makes the current rise more striking. Prices are climbing even with less parcel volume in the planes. The demand is coming from heavier, higher-value freight such as tech hardware, which tends to be less sensitive to price and less likely to switch to ocean. In our view, that makes the rise harder to reverse. A shipper moving servers for a data centre build will usually pay the higher rate rather than miss a deadline.

Asia–Europe is a different story. Freightos said Asia–Europe air prices are 3% lower than a year ago. China–Europe e-commerce volumes have fallen since July, after the EU added a €3 customs charge on low-value parcels. Freightos said the EU is also set to introduce “a November 1st €2 small parcel handling fee.” It expects that to cut volumes further. Less e-commerce on China–Europe frees freighters, and Freightos said that capacity has been shifting to other lanes. Some of it is likely heading to the transpacific, which could cap how far US rates run. That is our reading, not Freightos’s.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

Our view on what to do now:

Reprice November air quotes this week. Any quote built on early-October rates is under water. A quote at $5.85/kg into LAX may not cover a $6.88/kg market average.

Shorten validity. With two or three increases in two weeks, a 14-day quote is a gamble. Seven days, or “subject to space and rate at booking,” is safer for the rest of the peak.

Book tech cargo early. Servers and chip equipment are competing for the same main-deck space. Shippers in that sector should lock in capacity for November now, not when the order lands.

Use the ocean gap. Ocean prices to the US West Coast were flat this week. For cargo that can wait three to four weeks, ocean is relatively cheaper than it was a month ago. Forwarders should put that option in front of customers.

Watch Europe for spare capacity. If the 1 November EU parcel fee cuts China–Europe e-commerce further, freighter space may move from Europe to the US. Forwarders with Europe-bound air may see better rates there, and US-bound buyers may get some relief in December. We do not expect relief before then.

Our prediction

Our prediction: WorldACD’s global spot rate will stay at or above $3.55/kg in every week through mid-November. Asia Pacific spot will be back above $4.83/kg by week 44, the week starting 26 October, as factories return to full output after the holidays. If the Gulf sees fresh disruption from the Saudi-Houthi conflict, we expect Middle East and South Asia rates to rise first, within two to three weeks of any incident. And we expect year-on-year spot rate growth to stay above 25% through the end of Q4, driven mainly by fuel.

The 19% Freightos jump gives us more confidence in that call, not less. Prices are rising in steps, on real demand, with capacity held back. We would only change our view if airlines put large amounts of freighter capacity back on the transpacific before mid-November, and nothing we have seen says they will.

Sources