Air Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read

Riyadh shut, China–Europe air slides: price air cargo lane by lane

Riyadh’s air cargo capacity fell 99%. Europe-bound rates are falling anyway. Riyadh’s King Khalid airport is shut until at least 17 October after strikes blamed on the Houthis. Cargo capacity there fell 99%, from 3,925 tonnes to 26 tonnes, The Loadstar reported. Our view: this is a Saudi problem, not a global one. Freightos says China–North Europe air rates fell 7% last week, while China–North America rose 3%. WorldACD puts China–US spot at $6.05/kg, up 30% on last year. Forwarders should route Saudi freight via Jeddah, Dammam or by road, and quote each lane on its own. Our call: even if the airport reopens after 17 October, at least some foreign airlines stay away through end of October.

Riyadh’s shutdown is a Saudi problem. The split in air rates is everyone’s problem.
Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, Saudi Arabia’s second-busiest, has been closed since an attack on Saturday 10 October. A notice to airmen keeps it shut until 9pm GMT on 17 October, L’Orient Today reported. Since the closure, air cargo capacity at Riyadh has fallen 99%, from 3,925 tonnes to 26 tonnes, according to Rotate data cited by The Loadstar.
Our view is simple. The Riyadh closure is a hard, immediate problem for anyone moving freight into Saudi Arabia. It is not a global capacity shock. The bigger issue for most forwarders going into the fourth-quarter peak is that air rates have split. Europe-bound rates from China are weakening. Transpacific and Middle East rates are still strong. A single “the market is up” or “the market is down” view will get quotes wrong.

What happened in Saudi Arabia

The strike that closed Riyadh killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, according to L’Orient Today, citing AFP and Reuters. CBS News reported that the airport had been hit four times in five days, and that a projectile struck the passenger terminal on Sunday 11 October. The US embassy also cited an attack targeting King Fahd International Airport in Dammam.
Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority said operations were suspended to “allow for the completion of procedures to ensure the safety and operational readiness of the airport’s facilities,” L’Orient Today reported. In an alert reported by CBS on 13 October, the US State Department said Riyadh remains suspended through 17 October. Jeddah’s King Abdulaziz and Dammam’s King Fahd airports are open, with delays and cancellations. The department told US citizens: “Please take extreme caution if you choose to use airports in Saudi Arabia.”
Airlines have pulled back well beyond Riyadh. According to L’Orient Today:

Etihad cancelled all Abu Dhabi–Riyadh flights until 19 October.

Gulf Air cancelled Riyadh flights from 12 to 17 October.

Lufthansa Group cancelled Riyadh flights until 16 October.

Air France-KLM suspended Riyadh flights to the end of the month.

Qatar Airways suspended Riyadh and Dammam flights.

Delta pushed its new Atlanta–Riyadh service from 23 October to March 2027.

Aviation data firm Cirium said cancellations across all Saudi airports reached 46.4%, L’Orient Today reported. Mark Zee, founder of aviation safety group OPSGROUP, told the outlet: “This level of sustained intense attack on civil aviation is unprecedented.”

How much cargo capacity has gone

The Loadstar, using Rotate data, measured inbound and outbound cargo capacity on freighters and widebody passenger aircraft. Across Saudi Arabia, it fell 33% over three days against the same period a week earlier, to 7,292 tonnes. Riyadh alone went to almost nothing.
Saudia Cargo, the national cargo airline, saw its international freighter and widebody belly capacity fall 19% to 7,410 tonnes over the same period. (“Belly” capacity is cargo space in the hold of passenger jets.) The carrier moved 573,000 tonnes in 2025, The Loadstar said.
Some freight is already stuck. Mike Duggan, head of Oman Air Cargo, told The Loadstar: “We have a small amount of cargo waiting in MCT as a result.” MCT is Muscat airport. He said a road feeder service into Saudi Arabia (trucks run under an air waybill) was still being planned, and continued disruption “may give us some impetus to start sooner.”
Flying around Saudi Arabia is also getting harder. The Loadstar reported that the European aviation regulator, EASA, revised its conflict-zone bulletin on 9 October. It now recommends avoiding two areas of Saudi airspace at all altitudes. Longer routings mean more fuel and, on weight-limited flights, less room for cargo.
This sits on top of a Gulf that has not recovered from earlier in the year. WorldACD data, reported by STAT Times, shows capacity to and from the Gulf was still 17% below late February, before the US–Iran conflict began. Capacity to and from the Middle East and South Asia was down 10%. At sea, the risk is still live too. On 13 October, UKMTO (the UK’s maritime security reporting centre) said a tanker and a container ship were hit by “projectiles of unknown origin” in the Strait of Hormuz, CBS reported.

Why this stays mostly local

Freightos research head Judah Levine made the key point in the company’s weekly update. Because Saudi Arabia “is not a major transhipment hub for the international air cargo market, the closures may not be felt more broadly.” A transhipment hub is an airport where cargo switches planes on its way somewhere else, as it does at Dubai or Doha.
We agree. Freight going into Saudi Arabia is hurt. Freight flying over or past it is mostly slowed and made dearer, not stopped. The pricing effect shows up where you would expect: WorldACD says average rates on Middle East and South Asia lanes were up 52% year on year in September, the biggest rise of any region.

The rate split: Europe down, transpacific up

The Freightos Air Index for the week showed:

China–North Europe: down 7% on the week.

China–North America: up 3%.

North Europe–North America: up 2%.

Southeast Asia–North America: 40% above last year.

Global benchmark: up 33% year on year and 29% above its level before the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Freightos said China–Europe prices dipped to $3.58/kg last week, down 9% on last year. Levine wrote that “the drop in e-commerce volumes may be dragging down rates for this lane,” even with some freighters being moved from Asia–Europe to the transpacific.
WorldACD’s September numbers show the same pattern in volumes. Combined tonnage from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe fell 10% on last year. Hong Kong was down 24% and mainland China down 2%. STAT Times reports that e-commerce volumes to Europe have fallen since July, mainly from Hong Kong and southern China, after the EU removed its de minimis exemptions. (De minimis is the low-value threshold under which parcels used to enter duty-free.)
Meanwhile, China–US volumes rose 17% on last year, and the China–US spot rate reached $6.05/kg in September, up 30%, according to WorldACD. Worldwide tonnage rose 9% year on year, and average rates were 25% higher.
One caution on the numbers. WorldACD’s China–Europe “full-market” rate for September was $4.53/kg, up 9% on last year. That includes contract cargo as well as spot, so it moves more slowly than the Freightos index. The two are not in conflict. Spot is turning first.

What forwarders should do now

Saudi-bound freight. Assume Riyadh is not a reliable gateway this month. Route via Jeddah or Dammam and accept delays, or fly into a neighbouring hub and truck it in. Tell customers now, not after a booking rolls. Check whether your carrier’s own suspension runs past the airport’s announced 17 October closure date. Air France-KLM’s runs to month-end, and Etihad’s to 19 October.
Cost. Expect surcharges and higher all-in rates on Middle East lanes while capacity is short and routings are longer. Build validity dates into quotes that are days, not weeks.
Asia–Europe air. Spot rates are softening and e-commerce volume, the lane’s big filler, is weaker. Shippers with flexible freight have room to negotiate, and forwarders should avoid locking in block space at last month’s prices.
Transpacific air. Volume is up 17% and spot is above $6/kg, per WorldACD. Freighters are moving onto this lane, but demand is absorbing them so far. Do not promise customers peak-season rates below today’s.

Our prediction

Our call: Riyadh will not see a full return of foreign airlines on 17 October. At least some, including Air France-KLM, will still be off the airport at the end of October, and Saudi cargo capacity will remain below its pre-attack level through mid-November.
On rates, we expect China–North Europe on the Freightos Air Index to stay below year-ago levels through the end of November, while China–North America stays above last year over the same period. Forwarders who price the two lanes separately this quarter will protect margin. Those who average them will lose it on one side or the other.

Sources