Saturday, October 24, 2026
The news that moves freight
Companies & Markets Oct 24, 2026 · 7 min read

Ryder raises outlook and buys $300m more rental trucks

Ryder is buying rental trucks because it expects capacity to get tight. Ryder has raised its 2026 spending on rental trucks by $300m, to $500m, and lifted its full-year earnings guidance. Rental utilisation, the share of its rental trucks out on hire, hit 77% in Q3, against 70% a year earlier. Our view: a large truck lessor is buying ahead because it thinks US truck capacity is tightening. Management said “price increases are coming in 2027” for new trucks, and that customers have not stocked up yet. For forwarders, that means higher contract trucking costs in 2027 bids. Our call: Ryder’s Q4 utilisation stays at or above 75%.

Ryder’s $300m rental bet says US truck capacity is getting scarce

Ryder has raised its 2026 spending on rental trucks by $300m, to $500m. It announced the move with its third-quarter results on 22 October, alongside higher earnings guidance for the year. Its total capital budget stays at $2.4bn. So this is money moved into rental from elsewhere, not a bigger budget.

Ryder is one of the largest truck leasing and contract logistics companies in the US. It leases trucks to fleets, rents them out short term, maintains them, and runs dedicated trucking and warehousing for shippers. What it does with its rental fleet tells you a lot about where US truck capacity is heading.

Our view: this is a large equipment owner telling the market it expects trucks to be scarcer and dearer in 2027. A company that shrank its rental fleet over the past year is now buying again. Forwarders and shippers who buy US trucking should plan their 2027 bids on that basis.

What Ryder reported

The headline numbers come from Ryder’s results release, filed with the SEC.

  • Total revenue rose 8% to $3,433m, from $3,171m.
  • Operating revenue, Ryder’s measure that strips out fuel and some pass-through costs, rose 6% to $2,759m.
  • Comparable earnings per share (EPS), which excludes one-off items, rose 21% to $4.33 from $3.57. TIKR reported analysts had expected $4.15.
  • GAAP EPS, the standard accounting measure, rose 25% to $4.16.

Ryder raised its 2026 comparable EPS guidance to $14.85–15.05. On the call, management said the previous range was $14.40–14.80. TIKR put the analyst consensus at $14.69, below the bottom of the new range. Fourth-quarter comparable EPS guidance is $4.25–4.45. TIKR reported the shares rose about 10% on the day.

Diez said in the release: “Ryder delivered double-digit earnings growth in the third quarter”. He credited “early benefits from the freight market recovery.”

All three divisions grew revenue, according to the release:

  • Fleet Management Solutions, the leasing, rental and maintenance arm: revenue up 10% to $1,616m, pre-tax earnings up 21% to $177m.
  • Supply Chain Solutions, the warehousing and contract logistics arm: revenue up 9% to $1,504m, pre-tax earnings up 7% to $91m.
  • Dedicated Transportation Solutions, which supplies trucks and drivers to a single shipper: revenue up 6% to $606m, but pre-tax earnings down 5% to $34m. CFO Cristy Gallo-Aquino put the weaker result down to a smaller fleet than a year earlier, partly offset by higher pricing.

Why the rental numbers matter

Rental is the part of Ryder’s business that moves first when the freight market turns. Fleets and shippers rent trucks when they need capacity quickly and do not want to commit to a lease. When rental fills up, longer contracts tend to follow.

Rental utilisation, the share of the rental fleet out on hire, was 77% in the third quarter, against 70% a year earlier, according to the release. Diez said on the call: “Third quarter utilization was the highest we have seen since 2022”. He said he expects it to stay near that level in the fourth quarter. Gallo-Aquino said: “Rental pricing was up 4% year-over-year.”

That high utilisation comes from a smaller fleet. Ryder’s commercial rental fleet ended the quarter at 29,800 vehicles, down 9% from 32,700 a year earlier. Its ChoiceLease fleet, its full-service lease product, ended at 139,800, down 2%. Ryder has spent the slow freight years running fewer trucks harder. Now it is adding back.

Gallo-Aquino said the extra spending “positions us to benefit from improving market conditions and capture higher expected demand in 2027.”

The used-truck market tells the same story. Used tractor prices rose 19% year on year and used truck prices 5%, according to the release. Diez said: “Used vehicle sales results exceeded our expectations, driven by stronger-than-expected pricing and sales volumes.”

How fast this has turned

Three months ago Ryder was more cautious. When it reported the second quarter on 28 July, Transport Topics reported rental utilisation of 75% and quoted Diez saying: “We typically see demand accelerate in rental first. I think we’re still waiting for that to happen.”

In the same quarter, used tractor prices were up 6% year on year and used trucks 3%, according to Transport Topics. In the third quarter those figures were 19% and 5%. The rental fleet investment went from a $200m plan to $500m.

Our view: that is a quick change of mind for a company that usually moves carefully on fleet size. Ryder waited for proof in rental before it spent. It says it now has that proof.

The 2027 truck price problem

The second reason for the timing is regulation. The EPA 2027 rule is a stricter US emissions standard for heavy-truck engines built from 2027. Tougher engines cost more, so new trucks will cost more.

In August, Transport Topics quoted Diez at an investor conference: “We are expecting EPA regulations to take effect next year. That’s going to move pricing up.” He said the increase “could be high single digits to low double-digit increases based on the latest information.”

On the Q3 call, Tom Havens, president of Ryder’s Fleet Management Solutions arm, said: “I think it’s pretty well understood at this point that price increases are coming in 2027.” He then added: “Despite that, there was not any significant pre-buy activity.”

A pre-buy is when fleets buy new trucks early to beat a coming price rise or rule change. Havens says that has not happened yet.

Our view: that leaves a narrow window. If fleets start pre-buying in the next few months, truck makers’ build slots fill up and lead times stretch. If they do not, fleets enter 2027 with older trucks and face higher prices to replace them. Either way, the cost of putting a truck on the road goes up. Ryder’s extra rental trucks are partly a bet on fleets renting rather than buying at 2027 prices.

Havens also said: “Our pipelines are really strong, really at record levels in both SelectCare and in Lease.” SelectCare is Ryder’s maintenance contract for trucks it does not own. Havens said he expects fleet growth in lease, SelectCare and rental in 2027.

Demand from shippers, not just fleets

The capacity story is not only about trucks. Diez said: “We continue to see capacity being taken out of the market”. He tied it to higher spot rates, the prices for one-off truck moves booked at short notice. He said that while spot rates stay high, demand for equipment should continue.

He also said some customers are moving back towards dedicated trucking. On the call he said 70–80% of Ryder’s dedicated business is specialised, mostly private fleet conversions, where a shipper hands its own trucks and drivers to Ryder. He said those conversions are speeding up as driver supply tightens.

On the warehouse side, Steve Sensing, who runs Ryder’s supply chain and dedicated arms, said of the sales pipeline: “we’re seeing really solid increases in CPG, industrial healthcare, and retail.” CPG means consumer packaged goods, the everyday products sold in supermarkets. Diez added: “We’re seeing increased demand on our contractual businesses”.

Diez summed up: “The market remains in the early stages of a recovery, with conditions continuing to improve.”

What it means for forwarders

Our read is that three things follow for anyone buying US trucking.

First, contract rates. A truck that costs more to buy costs more to lease, and that cost goes into contract rates. Diez said Ryder is sticking to its target pricing spreads on leases. Forwarders should expect carriers to open 2027 bids asking for more, and to have less room to negotiate than in the past two years.

Second, surge capacity. Rental and spot trucks are how forwarders cover peaks, port surges and missed loads. With rental fleets running at 77% and spot rates elevated, that cushion is thinner. Forwarders moving import boxes inland from US ports should book drayage, the short truck move from port to warehouse, and onward trucking earlier, and line up backup carriers.

Third, dedicated and warehousing. If more shippers move into dedicated and contract logistics contracts, those providers get more pricing power. Forwarders with warehousing and distribution clients should expect firmer quotes in 2027 tenders.

The caution: Ryder is one company and the recovery is, in its own CEO’s words, early. Ryder does not own the whole market. But it sees lease, rental and used-truck demand across thousands of customers, so its signals tend to lead.

Our prediction

Our call: when Ryder reports fourth-quarter results in early 2027, rental utilisation will be at or above 75%, and its 2027 plan will put more money into rental trucks than the $500m it plans for 2026. If utilisation drops back to around 70%, we are wrong, and the capacity squeeze is weaker than Ryder thinks.

We also expect US contract trucking bids for 2027 to settle at higher rates than 2026, with the increases showing up in first-quarter 2027 renewals.

Sources