Companies & Markets Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read

DHL raises guidance as forwarder earnings week begins

DHL’s forwarding profit jumped a third. DSV and K+N report next. DHL Group expects 2026 EBIT (operating profit) above EUR 7.0bn, up from above EUR 6.5bn. In its preliminary figures on 16 October, Global Forwarding earned about EUR 260m in Q3, against EUR 195m a year earlier. That is up 33%. Our view: tight air capacity is what’s making forwarders money right now. DHL says capacity limits in air freight added about EUR 100m to its Express profit. DSV reports on 21 October and Kuehne+Nagel on 22 October. Our call: both will show air profit up year on year, and neither will cut its full-year range.

DHL’s strong quarter says air freight is carrying the forwarders. DSV and K+N have to prove it this week
DHL Group has raised its full-year 2026 profit forecast. It now expects group EBIT above EUR 7.0bn, up from above EUR 6.5bn. EBIT is earnings before interest and tax, the standard measure of operating profit. DHL released the preliminary numbers at 18:19 CEST on Friday 16 October, after European markets had closed. They showed DHL Global Forwarding earning about EUR 260m in the third quarter. A year earlier it earned EUR 195m.
DHL has reported ahead of the two big pure forwarders. DSV follows on Wednesday 21 October and Kuehne+Nagel (K+N) on Thursday 22 October. That makes DHL’s print the benchmark for the week.
Our view is simple. Right now the money in forwarding comes from air freight. Air capacity is tight, and the peak season has not really started. Ocean is the weaker side of the business, and this week’s results will show how much weaker. Forwarders and shippers should plan the next eight weeks on that basis.

What DHL actually reported

These are the headline numbers from DHL’s release, all preliminary:

Q3 group revenue: about EUR 22.6bn, up more than 12% year on year.

Q3 group EBIT: about EUR 1,710m, against EUR 1,477m a year earlier. That is a rise of about 16%, by our maths.

Global Forwarding EBIT: about EUR 260m, against EUR 195m.

Express EBIT: about EUR 1,035m, against EUR 692m.

Supply Chain EBIT: about EUR 300m, against EUR 278m.

eCommerce EBIT: about EUR 50m, against EUR 176m. Last year’s figure included EUR 123m of one-off gains.

Post & Parcel Germany EBIT: about EUR 150m, against EUR 218m.

The full-year guidance went up across the board. The forecast for the DHL divisions together is now above EUR 6.4bn, up from above EUR 5.9bn. Free cash flow excluding M&A is expected above EUR 3.2bn, up from about EUR 3.0bn. Capex (capital spending) is now about EUR 3.6bn, up from a range of EUR 3.0–3.3bn. DHL says it wants to take advantage of selected opportunities. The full Q3 report is due on 5 November.
DHL gave two reasons for the upgrade. The release cites “the ongoing earnings momentum, in particular within the Express division” and “indications of a robust seasonal peak in Q4.”
FreightWaves reported on 19 October that Q3 group EBIT came in above analyst consensus. It put Global Forwarding’s Q3 EBIT at $292m.

Why we read this as an air story

Start with forwarding. On the reported figures, Global Forwarding’s EBIT rose 33%. But last year’s EUR 195m included a EUR 14m one-off charge that DHL calls “Cost of Change”. Add that back and the underlying base is about EUR 209m. On that basis the rise is about 24%, by our maths. That is still a strong quarter for a forwarding business.
DHL’s preliminary release does not split forwarding profit between air and ocean. That detail should come in the 5 November report. So we can’t say from DHL’s own forwarding numbers how much came from air.
The Express division gives a clearer signal. Express EBIT rose about 50%, from EUR 692m to EUR 1,035m. DHL says this result had “a limited support of around EUR 100 million from capacity constraints in the air freight market.” In plain terms, there was too little cargo space in the air, and DHL’s own aircraft network earned more because of it. Take that EUR 100m out and Express is still up about 35% on our maths. So the air market added to a business that was already growing.
FreightWaves says the Express gain came from higher yield (revenue per shipment), cost cuts and being more selective about heavy air freight, with the tight air market helping too.
The market data says the same. The STAT Trade Times reported on 13 October that the TAC Index of global air rates fell 2.1% in the week to 12 October. Even so, the Baltic Air Freight Index was 24.3% higher year on year. Outbound Frankfurt was up 47.7% and London Heathrow up 44.7%, both year on year. The piece said the dip was in line with the usual slowdown during China’s Golden Week holiday. Market sources said “conditions remained firm as e-commerce companies and other major shippers had secured capacity for the peak season.” Some shippers, including AI hyperscalers (the big cloud and data-centre operators), had not yet secured space. That could push rates higher.
Cost is rising too. The same report cites IATA’s jet fuel monitor at 111.2% above a year earlier in the week to 9 October. That feeds straight into fuel surcharges.

One more number forwarders should notice

DHL’s Q3 free cash flow was about EUR 900m. The release says that figure included “net IEEPA outflows of around EUR 255 million in the quarter.” IEEPA is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the US emergency-powers law used to impose tariffs. DHL does not define the term or explain the outflow in the release.
Our reading: that is a large cash cost for a company that acts as a customs broker, paying duties and then collecting them from customers. Smaller forwarders that pay duties for clients face the same cash-flow risk, but with much thinner balance sheets. If your credit terms with customers are longer than your terms with customs, tariffs are funded out of your working capital.

What K+N and DSV said last time

The two pure forwarders reported Q2 in late July.
K+N said on 23 July that Q2 EBIT was CHF 381m, up 11%. Air Logistics EBIT was CHF 154m, up 35%. Sea Logistics EBIT was CHF 140m. Chief executive Stefan Paul said: “Air Logistics delivered an excellent quarter, increasing profit by 35%.” K+N raised its full-year recurring EBIT range to CHF 1.35–1.55bn. According to Vermögenszentrum, the previous range was CHF 1.2–1.4bn.
DSV’s interim report of 22 July showed Q2 EBIT before special items of DKK 6,255m, up 32.5%. DSV said the growth was driven partly by an extra month’s contribution from DB Schenker, the German forwarder it bought, so it is not a like-for-like figure. The Air & Sea division earned DKK 3,776m, up 9.4%. Its conversion ratio (the share of gross profit that becomes operating profit) rose to 42.4%. DSV said that was the first increase since the Schenker integration began. DSV raised the bottom of its 2026 range from DKK 23.0bn to DKK 23.5bn and kept the top at DKK 25.5bn. Chief executive Jens H. Lund said: “The second quarter of the year remained challenging, characterised by geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices.”
It is also worth remembering how quickly the peak-season mood can turn. In November 2024, FreightWaves quoted Stefan Paul saying: “We see a muted peak season this year in Q4”. DHL is saying the opposite now. If K+N agrees on Thursday, that confirms the market has turned since then.
The Loadstar framed this week on 19 October as the next round in the K+N versus DSV rivalry.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

If the air market stays this tight, a few things follow.
First, air carriers and the big forwarders with their own capacity will price space hard into November. Controlled capacity means owned freighters, block space agreements (seats bought in advance on a fixed schedule) and charters. Smaller forwarders buying on the spot market will pay more and get less. If you have not agreed peak space by now, plan for spot pricing.
Second, forwarders will try to protect their air margins rather than compete on price. When the biggest players are making money from a shortage, they have little reason to cut rates to win volume.
Third, higher fuel costs will keep surcharges high, even if base rates level off. Shippers should check the fuel surcharge on every air quote, not just the base rate.
Fourth, ocean is where the risk sits. DHL’s preliminary release says nothing about ocean. Its forwarding upgrade, and the strong Express result, both lean on air. If either DSV or K+N disappoints this week, we expect the explanation to be ocean volumes or ocean yields, not air.
Fifth, watch the cash. DHL’s EUR 255m tariff-related outflow is a reminder that customs work ties up money. Forwarders should check their duty-payment exposure before the US holiday import peak.

Our call for this week

Our prediction: when DSV reports on Wednesday 21 October and K+N on Thursday 22 October, both will show air freight profit up year on year in Q3. Neither will cut its full-year EBIT range. K+N’s range is CHF 1.35–1.55bn and DSV’s is DKK 23.5–25.5bn. We think at least one of them will narrow its range upwards.
If one of them does cut, we expect it to blame ocean, not air. We also expect air rates on the main Asia and Europe export lanes to be higher at the end of November than they were in the week to 12 October.

Sources