Air Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read

DHL raises 2026 profit guidance on Express strength and a robust Q4 peak

DHL bets on a strong air peak, and it is putting its own money behind that bet. DHL Group now expects 2026 EBIT (operating profit) above €7.0bn, up from above €6.5bn. Third-quarter EBIT rose about 16% to roughly €1,710m. Express EBIT was about €1,035m, against €692m a year ago. DHL cites “indications of a robust seasonal peak in Q4.” In our view this is the clearest signal yet that air space will stay tight and pricey into December. DHL also lifted capex to about €3.6bn. Our call: global air rates on the TAC index stay at least 15% above last year until mid-December. Book peak space now.

DHL just told the market the air peak is real. Forwarders should price and book like it.
DHL Group raised its full-year profit guidance for the second time since July. The ad hoc statement went out at 18:13 CEST on Friday 16 October, after Frankfurt trading had closed. DHL now expects 2026 reported EBIT to exceed €7.0bn. EBIT means earnings before interest and tax, a standard measure of operating profit. The previous guidance was more than €6.5bn. Before July, it was more than €6.2bn.
Preliminary third-quarter numbers explain the move. Group EBIT was about €1,710m, up from €1,477m a year earlier, a rise of roughly 16%. Revenue grew more than 12% to about €22.6bn. The full Q3 report is due on 5 November.
Our view is that this is less about DHL’s shareholders and more about the air market forwarders buy from. DHL is one of the largest air cargo operators in the world. When it points investors to “indications of a robust seasonal peak in Q4”, it is making a call on demand and capacity. In our reading, that call is that space stays tight and pricing stays firm through December. We also think the capex increase shows DHL expects this demand to last beyond one quarter.

What DHL actually reported

The release gives two reasons for the upgrade. The first is “ongoing earnings momentum, in particular within the Express division”. The second is “indications of a robust seasonal peak in Q4”. No executive is quoted by name.
The divisional numbers show where the money came from. All figures are preliminary Q3 2026 EBIT against Q3 2025, from the ad hoc release:

DHL Express: about €1,035m, against €692m. That is a rise of roughly 50%.

DHL Global Forwarding, Freight: about €260m, against €195m. That is up about a third.

DHL Supply Chain: about €300m, against €278m.

DHL eCommerce: about €50m, against €176m. The prior-year figure included €123m of one-off gains.

Post & Parcel Germany: about €150m, against €218m.

The rest of the guidance moved too. DHL now sees EBIT from its DHL divisions above €6.4bn, up from above €5.9bn. It expects free cash flow excluding net M&A (cash left after running the business and investing, before buying or selling companies) above €3.2bn, up from around €3.0bn. Post & Parcel Germany stays at above €900m and Group Functions at around minus €400m.
One more detail stands out. DHL has a mid-term goal of EBIT above €7bn “in a normalized macro environment”. It now expects to beat that number this year. The company says it will review the mid-term guidance in March 2027.

The air capacity windfall is shrinking, and Express is growing anyway

Part of Express’s profit comes from a scarcity premium. When air capacity is short, an integrator with its own planes can charge more on international shipments. DHL is open about this. The release says Express “had a limited support of around EUR 100 million from capacity constraints in the air freight market”.
That support was larger last quarter. SCW Mag reported on 8 July that about €150m of Q2 Express EBIT came from constrained air capacity, and that management warned the conditions might not last. Swiss outlet cash.ch quoted JPMorgan analyst Alexia Dogani in July. She said the express trend looked positive even without the one-off boost from tighter air capacity caused by the Iran war, and she saw room for market expectations to rise.
Her July reading held up. If you remove the €100m windfall, Q3 Express EBIT was still about €935m. That is about 35% above last year’s €692m. So the windfall is fading, but the core business is improving faster than the windfall is shrinking. We read that as volume and yield (revenue per kilo) holding up, not just a temporary price spike.
July also gives a guide to market reaction. On 7 July, cash.ch reported that DHL shares rose as much as 3% to €57.38, their highest since January 2022, and closed 1.7% higher at €56.68 on a day the DAX fell 1.4%. This upgrade came after Friday’s close, so Monday’s trading is the first test.

What the air market is saying

DHL’s view matches independent rate data.
TAC Index publishes the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI), a weekly benchmark of air cargo rates. In the seven days to 12 October, global rates fell 2.1% week on week, which StatTimes put down to China’s Golden Week holiday. Compared with a year earlier, the global index was 24.3% higher. Shanghai outbound was up 20.5% year on year, Frankfurt outbound 47.7% and London Heathrow outbound 44.7%. StatTimes, reporting market sources, added: “Some shippers, including AI hyperscalers, were yet to secure space, which could put further upward pressure on rates.” Hyperscalers are the giant cloud companies building data centres.
Cost pressure is also high. The same report cites the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor showing jet fuel up 111.2% year on year as of 9 October. Expensive fuel limits how much spare freighter flying airlines will add, even when rates are high.
C.H. Robinson’s October air update, published 1 October, points the same way. It says “Asia-origin pricing could firm more noticeably from mid-October”, with technology freight such as servers and chip-making equipment leading demand. It put Asia Pacific-to-US demand 17% above last year in mid-September. It also notes that e-commerce plays a smaller role in this peak, and that Asia Pacific-to-Europe e-commerce volumes are below last year.
That last point helps explain DHL eCommerce’s weak quarter. In our view, the peak is being driven by heavy, high-value B2B (business-to-business) freight, not by parcels.

The cash flow line forwarders should not ignore

Q3 free cash flow excluding net M&A was about €900m. DHL says it “includes net IEEPA outflows of around EUR 255 million in the quarter”. IEEPA is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The US Supreme Court ruled on 20 February 2026 that tariffs imposed under it were unlawful, and refunds are now being processed by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
The release does not break the €255m down. DHL’s own refund guide, published 10 June, shows why a carrier-broker can carry this kind of cash gap. Where DHL was the importer of record (the party legally responsible for the import and its duties), it files the refund claims itself. It then repays the customers who originally paid the duty. DHL says that after it gets the money from CBP, “it will take another 30-90 days from DHL’s receipt of the refund” to reconcile and pay customers.
Our inference is that any forwarder or broker that paid duties on behalf of clients has the same problem on a smaller scale. Money moves in and out at different times, and the gap sits on the broker’s balance sheet. If a company with DHL’s size is showing a €255m drain in one quarter, smaller brokers should check their own exposure before peak volumes stretch their working capital further.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

First, expect peak surcharges to stick. When the largest integrator is guiding up on peak strength, it will not discount express or deferred air in November. Forwarders buying lift from airlines should expect the same stance from carriers.
Second, book Asia-origin space early, especially for technology and oversized cargo. C.H. Robinson says dense, oversized, temperature-controlled and some dangerous goods depend more on scarce main-deck and freighter space. That is where the squeeze will show first.
Third, Europe outbound deserves a closer look. The year-on-year jumps from Frankfurt and Heathrow are bigger than from Shanghai. Shippers on those lanes who budgeted from last year’s tariffs are likely under-budgeted.
Fourth, DHL is spending more. Capex rises to around €3.6bn from €3.0–3.3bn, “in order to take advantage of selected opportunities amid the ongoing business dynamic”. Owned-asset capex was already about €2.2bn in the first nine months. We expect more of this to go into aircraft and hubs. That means more competition for time-critical freight in 2027, and pressure on forwarders who resell airline capacity into the same market.
Fifth, DHL Global Forwarding is improving but trails Express. Its Q3 EBIT of about €260m is roughly a quarter of what Express earned. Forwarders competing with DHL Global Forwarding are facing a rival with momentum, but not one that is running away with the market.

Our call

We expect three things.
By 5 November, when the full Q3 report comes out, DHL will keep the “more than €7.0bn” floor and will not lower any of its other targets.
Through mid-December, the TAC global Baltic Air Freight Index will stay at least 15% above the same week of 2025, with Asia-origin rates firmer in the second half of November than in the first half of October.
By March 2027, when DHL reviews its mid-term guidance, it will raise the €7bn mid-term EBIT goal. We think the air capacity windfall will be close to zero by then, and Express profit growth will still justify a higher target.

Sources