Companies & Markets Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read

DHL raises guidance before DSV and K+N report

DHL lifts its 2026 profit target to more than EUR 7bn, and tight air capacity did part of the work. DHL Group now expects 2026 operating profit (EBIT) above EUR 7.0bn, up from above EUR 6.5bn. Its Q3 EBIT was about EUR 1,710m, up roughly 16%. We think this shows air freight is where forwarder profit is coming from this year. DHL Global Forwarding’s EBIT rose to about EUR 260m from EUR 195m. DHL Express says about EUR 100m came from tight air freight capacity. For forwarders, peak season air space will cost more and need booking earlier. Our call: when DSV reports on 21 October and Kuehne+Nagel on 22 October, both will show air outgrowing sea.

DHL’s guidance raise says air freight is carrying forwarder profits into peak season
DHL Group raised its full-year 2026 profit outlook at 06:19 PM CEST on Friday 16 October. Reported group EBIT is now expected to exceed EUR 7.0bn, up from the previous target of above EUR 6.5bn. EBIT means earnings before interest and tax, a standard measure of operating profit.
The trigger was a strong third quarter. On preliminary figures, Q3 group revenue rose more than 12% to about EUR 22.6bn. Q3 group EBIT was about EUR 1,710m, against EUR 1,477m a year earlier. That is growth of roughly 16%.
Our reading is simple. This is an air freight result. The extra profit came from tight air capacity and a busy express network. It did not come from ocean. We think the two biggest forwarders, DSV and Kuehne+Nagel, will tell the same story when they report next week.

Where DHL’s extra profit came from

The division-by-division numbers in DHL’s release show the pattern clearly.

DHL Express: EBIT of about EUR 1,035m, up from EUR 692m. That is roughly 50% higher.

DHL Global Forwarding: about EUR 260m, up from EUR 195m. That is roughly 33% higher.

DHL Supply Chain: about EUR 300m, up from EUR 278m.

DHL eCommerce: about EUR 50m, down from EUR 176m. The prior-year figure included EUR 123m of positive one-off effects.

Post & Parcel Germany: about EUR 150m, down from EUR 218m.

The Express line is the one to note. DHL says the result “had a limited support of around EUR 100 million from capacity constraints in the air freight market.” In plain terms, space on planes was scarce, so prices rose and DHL earned more on its own fleet. DHL calls that support “limited”. Still, EUR 100m is close to a third of Express’s year-on-year gain of about EUR 343m.
Global Forwarding, the unit that competes most directly with DSV and Kuehne+Nagel, grew profit by about a third. DHL’s release does not split that between air and ocean. It is still the first big forwarder Q3 number of the season, and it is a strong one.
DHL gives two reasons for the raise. It cites “the ongoing earnings momentum”, especially in Express. It also cites “indications of a robust seasonal peak in Q4”. A company does not usually put a peak-season call in writing unless its bookings support it.

The rest of the new outlook

The raise goes beyond the headline figure. According to the release:

EBIT for the DHL divisions is now expected above EUR 6.4bn, from above EUR 5.9bn.

Post & Parcel Germany stays at above EUR 900m.

Group Functions stays at around minus EUR 400m.

Free cash flow excluding net M&A (mergers and acquisitions) is now expected above EUR 3.2bn, from around EUR 3.0bn.

Capex (spending on assets such as aircraft, hubs and vehicles) is now about EUR 3.6bn, up from EUR 3.0bn to EUR 3.3bn.

The capex increase is worth noting. A company that expects demand to fade does not raise spending on assets. DHL’s mid-term goal is EBIT above EUR 7bn in a “normalized macro environment”. It now expects to beat that number this year, and says the mid-term target will be reviewed in March. The full Q3 report is due on 5 November.
One more line matters to anyone who handles US imports. Q3 free cash flow was about EUR 900m. DHL says it “includes net IEEPA outflows of around EUR 255 million in the quarter”. IEEPA is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the US law used to impose many of the recent tariffs. The release does not break the figure down. Even so, a quarter-billion euros of tariff-related cash going out in one quarter shows how much working capital these duties tie up for a large broker and carrier.

The air market behind the numbers

DHL’s air comment matches the market data. In its mid-year Air Freight Outlook, reported by Cargo Newswire in July, Xeneta said the escalation of the Middle East conflict on 28 February removed about 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. It said capacity grew only 1% in the first half of 2026, while demand rose 4%.
Xeneta reversed its forecast as a result. In December 2025 it expected long-term shipper air rates to fall 5% to 10% this year. It now expects them to rise 5% to 15%. Longer routings and limited fleet flexibility are part of the reason. So is demand for semiconductors and AI hardware, which Xeneta said is concentrated on the transpacific.
Not every part of air is strong. Xeneta reported that China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% year on year in May, the sixth monthly decline in a row. The EU ended its EUR 150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on 1 July. That fits DHL’s own eCommerce division, whose profit fell even after stripping out last year’s one-offs.
So the gains are going to high-value, time-critical freight, not to parcels from online marketplaces.

What to watch from DSV and Kuehne+Nagel

DSV will release its Q3 interim results on the morning of 21 October, with a webcast and call at 11:00 CEST. Group CEO Jens H. Lund and CFO Michael Ebbe will present. Kuehne+Nagel’s financial calendar lists its nine-month 2026 results for 22 October.
Both raised their outlooks last time.
In July, DSV reported Q2 EBIT before special items of DKK 6.3bn, up 32.5%, according to Container News. It narrowed its 2026 range to DKK 23.5bn to DKK 25.5bn, from DKK 23.0bn to DKK 25.5bn. Its Air & Sea division earned DKK 3.8bn, up 9.4%. The bigger driver was the DB Schenker integration, which DSV said was on schedule. It is targeting DKK 9bn in annual synergies, meaning cost savings from combining the two businesses, with the full benefit expected in 2027.
Kuehne+Nagel raised its 2026 recurring EBIT guidance to CHF 1.35bn to CHF 1.55bn after its first half. Its Q2 Air Logistics EBIT rose 35% to CHF 154m. Sea Logistics made CHF 140m. “Air Logistics delivered an excellent quarter, increasing profit by 35%,” CEO Stefan Paul said, as reported by Breakbulk News.
Analysts are not all positive. In a 15 October preview, The Loadstar reported that sell-side price-target changes for the sector have recently been mostly cuts, with Expeditors and Maersk the exceptions. The consensus Q3 numbers for K+N’s US-traded shares, as listed by aggregator Defense World, are earnings of $0.58 per share on revenue of $7.71bn. Treat those as a rough guide only.
Three things to watch in the reports:

Air versus sea profit. If air again grows much faster than sea, DHL’s pattern holds across the sector.

Gross profit per unit, meaning the margin a forwarder earns on each tonne or container it moves. It shows whether tight capacity is turning into margin or being passed straight to airlines.

DSV’s Schenker progress. Any change to the DKK 9bn synergy figure or its timing will move DSV’s share price more than one quarter’s volumes.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

If DHL is right about a strong Q4 peak, air space will be tight from now to Christmas. That means:

Peak season surcharges on air are more likely to stick than in a soft year. Expect fewer last-minute discounts.

Large forwarders with their own allocations or freighters will have an edge on price and space. Smaller forwarders buying on the spot market will pay more and should book early.

Shippers moving electronics or other high-value goods should lock in space now. Those moving e-commerce volume may find carriers keener to deal, because that segment is weak.

US importers and their brokers should plan for tariff cash to stay a problem. DHL’s EUR 255m quarter is a sign of what duties do to cash flow even at a company of its size.

Ocean is the open question. Neither DHL nor the July results from DSV and K+N suggest ocean is driving profit. If DSV and K+N show sea margins slipping next week, it will confirm that the profit growth this year is in air.

Our call

DHL has set a high bar, and we expect the two biggest forwarders to clear it on air.
Our prediction: when DSV reports on 21 October and Kuehne+Nagel on 22 October, both will show air freight profit growing faster than ocean profit year on year. At least one of them will raise or tighten its full-year profit range upward. We also expect air rates on the main lanes out of Asia to stay firm through the end of December, before easing after Lunar New Year in February.
If we are wrong, the most likely reason will be ocean. A sharp fall in sea margins could offset gains in air for both companies, even if DHL’s air numbers hold up.

Sources