Companies & Markets Oct 20, 2026 · 8 min read

DSV and Kuehne+Nagel report Q3 this week, with DHL setting a high bar

DSV and K+N report this week. DHL just raised the bar. DSV publishes Q3 results on the morning of 21 October. Kuehne+Nagel follows on 22 October at 06:45. DHL has already lifted its 2026 operating-profit forecast to more than EUR 7bn, and its forwarding arm’s Q3 profit rose about a third (FreightWaves). Our view: DSV is the one under pressure. Its European road business still lagged in Q2 (Trans.info), while K+N’s shares sit near a 52-week high. For forwarders, two giants chasing volume means sharper bids. Our prediction: DSV keeps its DKK 23.5–25.5bn range and signals tough Q4 contract pricing before year-end.

DSV has more to prove than Kuehne+Nagel this week, and DHL has made the test harder
Two of Europe’s largest forwarders report third-quarter results within 24 hours of each other. DSV publishes on the morning of 21 October, with a webcast and call at 11:00 CEST led by CEO Jens H. Lund and CFO Michael Ebbe. Kuehne+Nagel (K+N) follows on 22 October at 06:45, with its nine-month figures.
They do not walk in cold. DHL Group has already put out preliminary Q3 numbers and raised its 2026 forecast. It now expects EBIT, or earnings before interest and taxes (in plain terms, operating profit), to exceed EUR 7bn, according to FreightWaves.
Our view is simple. This week is a test for DSV, not for K+N. K+N comes in with momentum, a raised forecast and a share price near its high. DSV comes in still absorbing DB Schenker, the German forwarder it bought, with a road network that was underperforming three months ago. The number that matters most from Copenhagen is not headline profit. It is whether the Schenker integration is now paying off in the parts of the business that were lagging.

The bar DHL just set

FreightWaves, reporting on 19 October, put DHL’s numbers in dollars. “Group EBIT during the third quarter reached $1.92 billion, up 16% year over year,” it wrote, ahead of analyst expectations.
The forwarding piece is the most relevant for this week. DHL Global Forwarding generated EBIT of $292m, which FreightWaves describes as up a third on the prior year, excluding small one-time effects in 2025. DHL Express did even better, with adjusted operating profit up 49.5% to $1.16bn. FreightWaves links that to higher yields (the revenue earned per shipment) and cost efficiencies. Supply Chain, DHL’s warehousing arm, rose 7.9% to $337m on an adjusted basis.
DHL also raised its free cash flow forecast to $3.6bn from $3.37bn and lifted planned capital spending to about $4bn. According to FreightWaves, it expects a “robust” peak season. The full DHL report is due on 5 November.
That gives investors a clear comparison. If DHL’s forwarding unit can lift profit by about a third, they will ask why DSV and K+N cannot do the same.

Why K+N walks in with the wind behind it

K+N’s run this year has been strong. On 20 October The Loadstar wrote that the Swiss forwarder “has massively outperformed its Danish rival on the stock market year to date.”
The share price backs that up. K+N traded at CHF 229.90 on the SIX exchange on 20 October, close to its 52-week high of CHF 234.00. The 52-week low was CHF 148.90 (ad-hoc-news).
The business has kept pace. In Q2, K+N grew net revenue 8% to CHF 6.62bn and EBIT 11% to CHF 381m, Moneycab reported. Its airfreight EBIT rose by more than a third. It then raised its 2026 EBIT forecast to CHF 1.35–1.55bn, from CHF 1.25–1.40bn. CEO Stefan Paul said the main growth driver was the technology business. He also set a new goal: CHF 100–150m of extra productivity from AI by the end of 2027, so the same headcount can handle more volume.
Analyst expectations sit inside that range. Consensus for 2026 is EBIT of CHF 1.409bn and earnings per share of CHF 8.58, according to ad-hoc-news. Those medians come from an analyst survey dated 9 July, before the July upgrade.
A rough sum shows what K+N needs. Trading-Treff reported Q1 EBIT of CHF 343m. Add Q2’s CHF 381m and the first half comes to about CHF 724m. Our calculation: hitting the CHF 1.45bn midpoint means about CHF 363m a quarter in the second half. That is below the Q2 run rate. On paper, the bar is low.
Not everyone is convinced. RBC Capital started coverage on 15 October with “Sector Perform”, a neutral rating, and a CHF 235 target, ad-hoc-news reported. RBC’s named risk is the freight-rate tailwind turning against the company. That matters because a forwarder’s gross profit per container or per kilo often widens when rates rise fast and narrows when they fall.
K+N also has a people story. The Loadstar reported on 20 October that K+N has appointed a new US leader, adding: “Internal changes are happening fast, expect more”.

Why DSV has more to prove

DSV’s headline numbers are solid. In Q2 its EBIT before special items (operating profit excluding one-off costs such as restructuring) rose 32.5% to DKK 6,255m. Gross profit rose 17.5% to DKK 20,277m. It narrowed its 2026 EBIT forecast to DKK 23.5–25.5bn, lifting the bottom from DKK 23.0bn.
But Lund did not sound relaxed. “The second quarter of the year remained challenging, characterised by geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices,” he said in the H1 report.
There were real signs of progress. In Air & Sea, DSV said “the conversion ratio increased for the first time since the start of the integration to 42.4% in Q2 2026.” The conversion ratio is the share of gross profit that turns into operating profit. A rising one means the merged network is running more efficiently.
Road was the problem. Trans.info said DSV’s European road business “remained the main exception, with continued disruption as the two networks were combined.” It added: “Underlying operational performance fell short of expectations.” DSV has since reshuffled road management, handing the division to group COO Brian Ejsing, Trans.info reported. Road EBIT still rose 90.5% to DKK 999m, but DSV said Schenker’s contribution and gains from property sales helped.
Analysts trimmed their numbers over the summer. On 4 August, a Zacks note on Nasdaq said current-quarter EPS estimates for DSV’s US-listed shares “have now fallen from $1.48 to $1.31 over the last 90 days.”
Here is the maths that matters for Wednesday. Trans.info put DSV’s first-half EBIT before special items at DKK 11.11bn. Our calculation: the DKK 24.5bn midpoint of the forecast needs about DKK 13.4bn in the second half, or roughly DKK 6.7bn a quarter. That is above Q2’s DKK 6,255m. So DSV needs a step up in Q3 and Q4, not just a steady quarter.
DSV is also counting on synergies, the cost savings from merging two companies. It expects at least DKK 4bn of new synergies in 2026, about DKK 5bn in total by year-end, and about DKK 9bn a year at full impact in 2027.

What happened last time

A year ago, DSV’s Q3 2025 report came out on 23 October 2025. EBIT before special items was DKK 5,434m. DSV narrowed its 2025 forecast to DKK 19.5–20.5bn from DKK 19.5–21.5bn, cutting the top end. It said the outlook “remains highly uncertain, especially in Air & Sea.”
That is the pattern to watch. Last autumn DSV tightened from the top. This summer it tightened from the bottom. If it narrows again on Wednesday, which end it moves will tell you more than any adjective in the press release.

What this means for forwarders and shippers

First, pricing. Both companies are paying for big networks. DSV must fill the combined DSV-Schenker network to reach its synergy targets. K+N has told investors it wants more volume with the same headcount. In our view, that makes both of them hungry bidders in Q4 tenders and in 2027 contract talks, especially on ocean and air lanes where they carry the most volume.
Second, customer coverage. A new US leader at K+N, and the Loadstar’s hint of more changes, usually means reshuffled account teams. US shippers on K+N contracts should expect calls from new contacts. Smaller forwarders competing in the US should expect K+N to push for wins under new management.
Third, the road market in Europe. If DSV’s road unit is still struggling, some shippers will have had service problems this year. That creates room for regional road forwarders to win business, at least until DSV fixes its network.
Fourth, the wider earnings calendar. UPS is expected before the open on 27 October, with consensus EPS of $1.63 and revenue of $22.18bn (MarketBeat). Expeditors reports before the open on 3 November, with Barchart expecting adjusted EPS of $2.24 against $1.64 a year earlier (via ad-hoc-news). Goldman Sachs raised its Expeditors target to $180 from $171 on 15 October. DHL’s full report lands on 5 November. By then, we will know whether DHL’s forwarding jump was a one-company story or a market-wide one.

Our call

Our prediction for this week: DSV keeps its DKK 23.5–25.5bn EBIT range rather than raising it, and says road is improving but not fixed. K+N holds its CHF 1.35–1.55bn range and talks up AI productivity rather than raising guidance again, because, in our view, rates are a headwind, not a tailwind, into Q4.
Our prediction for the next ten weeks: by the end of December, both companies push harder on price in tenders to fill their networks. Forwarders bidding against them on 2027 contracts should plan for tighter margins, not wider ones.

Sources