Thursday, October 22, 2026
The news that moves freight
Trucking & Rail Oct 22, 2026 · 7 min read

Knight-Swift Q3: US truckload rates are being reset upward

Knight-Swift earns 83 cents and says the truck rate reset has further to run. Knight-Swift, the largest US truckload carrier, earned 83 cents a share in Q3, against 32 cents a year ago. Truckload revenue per loaded mile, excluding fuel, rose 9.7%. Its fleet shrank 4%. Our view: contract rates are being reset, and the rises won’t stop at this year’s bids. CEO Adam Miller says cost inflation and tight capacity “will require further meaningful rate growth in 2027”. DAT says truck posts are 21% to 27% below a year ago. Our call: Knight-Swift’s Q4 revenue per loaded mile, reported in late January, will be up at least 10%.

Knight-Swift is shrinking its fleet and raising its prices. Shippers should plan for both in 2027

Knight-Swift, the largest truckload carrier in the US, earned an adjusted 83 cents a share in the third quarter of 2026, up from 32 cents a year earlier. It reported on 21 October. The key number for shippers is a different one. Truckload revenue per loaded mile, excluding fuel surcharge, rose 9.7% year on year, while the average number of tractors in service fell 4.0% to 20,470. That comes from the company’s earnings release.

Put simply, it is earning more on each mile with fewer trucks. FreightWaves reported that the 83 cents beat analyst consensus by 7 cents and topped the company’s own guidance of 71 to 77 cents. Investing.com reported the shares up 3.26% after hours at $65.26.

Our view is that this is the clearest sign yet that US truckload contract rates are being reset upward, and that the reset has further to run. The biggest carrier in the market is not adding trucks to chase freight. It is pricing for margin with a smaller fleet and telling customers to expect more of the same next year. For forwarders managing US inland legs, drayage handoffs and cross-border moves, the cost base is moving up, and 2027 bid season will make that official.

What Knight-Swift reported

Total revenue was $2,200.9 million, up 14.2%, according to the release. Part of that is fuel, since fuel surcharges pass higher diesel costs through to customers. Excluding truckload and LTL fuel surcharge, revenue was $1,852.8 million, up 7.7%. Operating income rose 255.1% to $178.7 million.

The adjusted operating ratio for the whole group was 89.3%, an improvement of 450 basis points (4.5 percentage points). The operating ratio is operating costs as a share of revenue, so a lower number means more profit on each dollar. In truckload it improved 700 basis points to 89.2%. Revenue per tractor rose 10.9% to $56,419.

The other divisions tell the same story from different angles. In logistics, its brokerage arm that books other carriers’ trucks, load count fell 32.6%. Revenue per load rose 46.7% to $2,885. The release says logistics contract pricing is resetting “in line with tighter capacity conditions.” That is what happens when buying truck capacity on the open market gets expensive: a broker drops low-margin loads and reprices the rest.

Intermodal, which moves containers by truck to and from the railhead and by rail in between, grew revenue 30.6% to $122.9 million. Loads were up 13.3% to 40,090.

For the fourth quarter, Knight-Swift guides adjusted earnings of 78 to 84 cents. FreightWaves noted the range brackets the 82-cent consensus. It expects truckload revenue excluding fuel to be up low double digits. It expects intermodal revenue up 25% to 30% and logistics revenue flat. The guidance assumes current conditions continue “with pressured capacity and stable demand”.

What management said about rates

The CEO, Adam Miller, was direct in the release. “Industry capacity remains under pressure, and sourcing quality drivers is as challenging as it has been in years,” he said. FreightWaves quoted the release’s outlook: “we expect momentum across our businesses to keep building as rates continue to be reset”.

On 2027 he went further: “We expect that ongoing cost inflation and constraints on capacity will require further meaningful rate growth in 2027”. That is a carrier telling customers in public, before bids open, that it will ask for more.

The release also says Knight-Swift’s tender rejection rates run two to three times broader market measures. A tender rejection is when a carrier turns down a load offered under contract, usually because a better-paying spot load is available. A high rejection rate gives a carrier strong leverage in rate talks. Management also said its spot pricing ran ahead of public indicators and stayed well above contract rates, which kept rising through the quarter. It said it has more peak-season project arrangements in place than at any time since the pandemic.

On the earnings call, Investing.com quoted Miller: “Yes, we believe the new cycle still has plenty of gas left in the tank,” Investing.com also reported management saying the 2027 bid season had begun with at least double-digit rate increases. That article says it was produced with AI support and reviewed by an editor, so treat that detail as reported, not confirmed.

The rest of the market agrees

Knight-Swift is not alone. Heartland Express reported on 20 October. FreightWaves said it swung to Q3 net income of $1 million, or 1 cent a share, from an $8.3 million loss a year earlier. Revenue fell 9% to $179.5 million, below the $191.4 million consensus, but its adjusted operating ratio improved 590 basis points to 97.6%. CEO Mike Gerdin said: “The improved financial results reflect stronger freight volumes and improved customer pricing”. So Heartland is moving less freight but earning more on what it moves.

The spot market shows the same squeeze. In DAT’s week-42 report (10 to 16 October), published by AJOT on 19 October, the national van spot rate eased 3 cents to $3.09 a mile. DAT said lower diesel prices drove nearly all of the decline in spot rates. Van linehaul, the rate before fuel surcharge, was flat at $2.26. That is about 35% above a year ago, according to the same report. Reefer linehaul was 33% higher and flatbed 29% higher. DAT said truck posts on its load board were 21% to 27% below a year ago, while load posts were 12% to 23% higher. The van load-to-truck ratio, the number of loads posted for each available truck, was 9.7. DAT’s Dean Croke said: “Capacity remains the key factor in pricing.”

Rail is picking up some of the freight. CSX reported Q3 revenue of $4.02 billion on 21 October, up 12%, with intermodal volume up 7%, according to Railway Age. Its operating margin improved 880 basis points to 39.1%.

Werner shows the other side. On 19 October it warned that Q3 adjusted earnings would be 15 to 16 cents, against a 36-cent consensus, FreightWaves reported. It blamed driver, fuel and insurance claims costs. Rates are rising, but for some carriers costs are rising faster. That is why we expect carriers to keep pushing in the next round of bids.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

First, US inland legs will cost more in 2027. Truckload contracts are mostly set once a year, in bids that run from late autumn into spring. Knight-Swift guides Q4 truckload revenue excluding fuel up low double digits. It also says 2027 will need “further meaningful rate growth”. So any forwarder quoting door delivery for import containers should assume a higher US trucking component next year. That covers moving boxes from West Coast or East Coast ports to inland warehouses, and cross-border loads to and from Mexico and Canada.

Second, fuel is a separate charge on top. The rate rises above are excluding fuel. Fuel surcharges float with diesel, so a shipper can face a higher base rate and a higher surcharge at the same time. Werner’s warning shows diesel costs are still pressing on carriers.

Third, it will be harder to hold carriers to contract rates. When spot pays more than contract, carriers reject more contract loads. Shippers that win the lowest rate in a bid may find those trucks don’t turn up in peak weeks. Forwarders should build routing guides with more backup carriers and expect more loads to fall through to the spot market.

Fourth, intermodal looks better. Knight-Swift’s intermodal revenue is up 30.6% and it guides another 25% to 30% for Q4. CSX intermodal volume is up 7%. On long lanes, rail can absorb freight that trucks are pricing away. Forwarders handling inland moves from Los Angeles/Long Beach to the Midwest, or from Savannah and the Northeast ports inland, should price intermodal options alongside truck.

Fifth, brokerage capacity is getting pricier. Knight-Swift’s brokerage dropped a third of its loads and raised revenue per load almost 47%. Shippers that rely on brokers for overflow freight will pay for that tightness.

Our prediction

Our call: when Knight-Swift reports fourth-quarter results in late January 2027, truckload revenue per loaded mile excluding fuel surcharge will be up at least 10% year on year. That would be faster than the 9.7% it reported for Q3. We also expect DAT’s national van linehaul rate to stay above $2.20 a mile through the end of November. DAT’s own RateCast forecasts $2.23 by late November. If either misses, the reset is slower than we think. If both hold, shippers going into 2027 bids should budget for double-digit increases on US truckload contracts, excluding fuel.

Sources