Geopolitics Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read

Houthi strikes on Saudi airports cut air capacity as the Bab el-Mandeb coast stays contested

Houthi strikes cut Riyadh’s outbound air cargo capacity by 34%. Outbound air cargo capacity from Riyadh fell 34% to 848 tonnes in the 24 hours after Houthi strikes on Saudi airports, compared with a week earlier, according to Rotate data cited by The Loadstar. Lufthansa and Air India suspended flights. Our view: Saudi Arabia is running out of workarounds. With Hormuz disrupted, its airports and Red Sea coast were the bypass. Both are now under fire, and the fight for the Bab el-Mandeb shore goes on, according to Bloomberg. Book Saudi peak space early and plan around Jeddah. Our call: Riyadh capacity stays at least 20% below early-October levels through end of October.

Houthi strikes cut Riyadh’s outbound air cargo capacity by a third as the Bab el-Mandeb coast stays contested
Outbound air cargo capacity from Riyadh fell 34% to 848 tonnes in the 24 hours after this week’s Houthi strikes on Saudi airports, compared with the same period a week earlier, according to Rotate data cited by The Loadstar. Over 72 hours the drop was 26%. Freighter-only capacity into Riyadh fell 77% over 24 hours.
That matters because King Khalid International in Riyadh is the kingdom’s busiest cargo airport. It handled 576,600 tonnes in 2025, ahead of Jeddah’s 458,900 tonnes, according to Saudi civil aviation authority (GACA) figures cited by The Loadstar.
Our view: the airport strikes are the visible part of a bigger problem. Saudi Arabia is running out of safe ways in and out. Hormuz is disrupted by the Iran war. The Red Sea route depends on who holds the Yemeni coast at the Bab el-Mandeb. Now the airports in the centre and south of the country are targets too. Forwarders should treat Saudi cargo as a risk lane for the rest of the year, not a blip.

What happened at the airports

The attacks came over three days. On Tuesday 6 October, strikes on Abha airport in the south-west killed two women, a Moroccan and an Algerian, and injured 28, according to GACA figures reported by AeroCorner. On Wednesday 7 October, a strike on King Khalid International killed a Sudanese man and injured eight. GACA put the total at three dead and 36 injured, according to AeroCorner. Bloomberg, via gCaptain, reported the same three deaths.
On Thursday 8 October the Houthis said they hit Riyadh’s airport again. “Our armed forces targeted King Khalid Airport in Riyadh at midday with a ballistic missile that hit its target,” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said, according to Khaleej Times. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two missiles aimed at the capital. A Saudia jet parked at a terminal was heavily damaged by fire, with sources blaming shrapnel or a direct hit, according to Reuters via Gulf Times.
The disruption was immediate. Cirium data showed 49.7% of Riyadh departures cancelled by 1500 GMT on Thursday, according to Reuters. FlightAware counted more than 275 cancellations that day, according to the Associated Press. Saudia said operations were back to normal by 6pm local time, according to The Loadstar.
Airlines did not wait to see if it held. Lufthansa Group suspended Riyadh flights through 16 October, citing “current developments in the Middle East.” Air India and Akasa Air suspended service until 10 October, and IndiGo until 9 October, according to the AP.
Further south, Najran and Jazan airports are closed until 15 October, and Abha is limited to daytime operations, according to The Loadstar. The Houthis have warned that Saudi airspace is “unsafe for civilian flights,” according to The Express Tribune, citing their Saba news agency.

Why this is bigger than one bad week

The airports are not the only front. In September the Houthis launched an offensive along Yemen’s south-western Red Sea coast, according to the BBC, and took the port of Mokha on 10 September, according to the Associated Press. Mokha sits about 80 km from the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. About 12% of the world’s goods typically pass through it, according to the AP. The Houthis also took areas overlooking the strait, including Dhubab and Perim Island, according to the BBC.
On Sunday 4 October, Yemen’s government launched what it calls Operation Yemen Dawn, with Saudi air support, according to the BBC. Rashad al-Alimi, who heads Yemen’s ruling council, urged forces to fight “until the country is liberated from the grip of the Houthi terrorist militia.” Yemen’s Defence Ministry says Mokha has fallen. The Houthis reject that as baseless, and Reuters could not independently verify the extent of the gains, according to The Express Tribune. The same day the offensive began, explosions were reported near a tanker south of Al-Mukha, according to UKMTO (the UK military’s maritime security service) reports relayed by CBS News.
Coalition spokesman Turki Al-Maliki said Houthi attacks on civilian sites “will not go unpunished,” according to Bloomberg via gCaptain. The coalition says it has destroyed 82 Houthi military targets.
Our view: even if the coalition holds the coast, the strait will not feel safe. The Express Tribune notes that the Houthis could still hit ships with drones from further up the coast and inland. The Houthis say they pose no threat to international shipping but will keep targeting vessels from Saudi Arabia, according to the BBC. No carrier or underwriter will price that as safe.
There is also a political clock. Riyadh hosts the Future Investment Initiative conference in under three weeks, according to Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia has every reason to show its capital’s airport working by then. Airlines answer to their insurers and crews, not to conference dates.

We have seen this before, but not like this

Houthi strikes on Saudi airports are not new. In June 2019 a cruise missile hit the arrivals hall at Abha airport and injured 26 people. A drone strike there later that month killed one person and wounded 21, according to Wikipedia’s record of the attacks. In July this year a Houthi attack briefly closed Abha, according to AeroCorner.
What is different now is the setting. In 2019 cargo had other options. Hormuz was open and the Red Sea was busy. Today, shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb is down about 60% since the Houthis began attacking ships in late 2023, according to the AP.
Saudi Arabia had shifted oil exports to its Red Sea port of Yanbu by pipeline to get round Hormuz. Lloyd’s List Intelligence says “renewed Houthi threats have curtailed” that activity, as quoted by the AP. An attack on a pumping station at Khurais halted pumping on the East-West pipeline that feeds Yanbu, according to The Express Tribune, though CBS News notes reports have conflicted on whether oil is still flowing.
So the kingdom’s east coast faces Hormuz, its west coast faces the Bab el-Mandeb, and its airports face missiles. Cargo has fewer places to go than at any point in the last decade, in our view.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Start with air. Riyadh is losing freighter space and belly space, meaning cargo carried in the hold of passenger jets. When Lufthansa or Air India stops flying, that hold space goes with it. And it is happening as peak season starts. “We are anticipating a strong peak season,” Cathay Cargo director Dominic Perret told The Loadstar. He added: “in fact, one of our main challenges is having sufficient capacity to meet demand.”
The wider air market is already firm. The Baltic Air Freight Index rose 5% in the week to 5 October and was up 25.5% year on year, according to The Loadstar. Spot rates from India were about 70% higher year on year to the US and more than 80% higher to Europe, according to TAC Index figures in the same report. Average jet fuel prices were up 108% year on year as of 2 October.
The knock-on effects reach beyond Saudi Arabia. Perret said suspended Middle East services had hit Cathay’s European freighter flights that used Dubai as an intermediate stop. “Flying direct meant payload penalties,” he told The Loadstar, meaning less cargo per flight so the aircraft can carry enough fuel. Cathay found other stops, including Astana in Kazakhstan. Every airline that routes around the Gulf burns more expensive fuel and carries less freight.
Ocean is no easier. Spot rates from Nhava Sheva to Dammam reached up to $9,500 per 40ft container, according to The Loadstar’s report on India–Middle East trade. In the same report, Hapag-Lloyd has stopped taking new Upper Gulf bookings transhipped via Salalah “until further notice”, and the region is short of trucks to move imports inland.
What we would do now:

Book Saudi-bound peak air space early, and get the routing confirmed in writing.

Plan Riyadh cargo via Jeddah, with a road feeder service (a truck leg moved under the air waybill) as backup. Budget for trucks that are already scarce.

Check war-risk and force majeure clauses before quoting. Expect carriers to add surcharges.

Tell shippers with consignees near Najran, Jazan or Abha that air options there are closed or limited until at least 15 October.

Do not build Q4 plans around a Red Sea reopening.

Our call

These are our predictions, not facts.
Within two weeks, Lufthansa Group extends its Riyadh suspension beyond 16 October, or at least one other major international carrier adds one. Najran and Jazan stay closed past 15 October. Riyadh outbound air cargo capacity stays at least 20% below its early-October level through the end of October, and Saudi-bound air rates rise faster than the wider Middle East market over the same period.
At sea, whoever holds Mokha by November, no major container line moves its Asia–Europe services back through the Bab el-Mandeb before the end of 2026. The coast can change hands in a week. Carrier confidence takes much longer to return.

Sources