Monday, November 2, 2026
The news that moves freight
Geopolitics Nov 2, 2026 · 7 min read

Türkiye and Ukraine agree to work on a Black Sea grain corridor

Ankara and Kyiv want a grain corridor. Without Moscow, Black Sea freight costs stay up

Türkiye and Ukraine agreed on Saturday 31 October to work on a new Black Sea grain corridor. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky announced it at a joint news conference with Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. “Today, I reached an agreement with President Erdogan to work on the Black Sea grain corridor,” he said, as reported by Al Jazeera.

The meeting came three days after drones struck the container ship Contship Jet in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ, the sea area up to 200 nautical miles offshore where a country controls resources but not shipping) on 28 October (Al Jazeera).

Our view: this is the opening of talks, not a safe sea lane. The two leaders who agreed are not the ones who need convincing. Russia has turned down a limited sea truce once already this autumn. Until Moscow signs something, the insurance and surcharge costs on Black Sea cargo will not come down. Forwarders should plan for that.

What was agreed in Istanbul

Not much, on paper. Zelensky’s wording was to “work on” a corridor. He added: “We discussed with President Erdogan some ideas and proposals that can help,” according to Al Jazeera. No route, start date, inspection regime or list of ports was announced.

Erdogan’s language was stronger on the attacks than on any deal. “We cannot accept these attacks under any circumstances, regardless of who carries them out or what justification is offered,” he said. He also said “attacks against civilian vessels and actions that further escalate tensions in the Black Sea serve no one’s interests”, and called on “all parties to act responsibly on this matter.”

He tied the issue to wider peace efforts. In his words, “reaching an agreement on this issue would also give fresh impetus to efforts to secure lasting peace in Ukraine” (Al Jazeera).

The key detail is buried lower down. Ankara has already sent Russia and Ukraine a proposal to stop attacks on civilian ships. According to both Al Jazeera and Arab News, which carried AFP’s report, neither side has acted on it. So Istanbul did not produce a new offer. It restated an old one that is still waiting for answers.

Türkiye does have standing here. It keeps ties with both Moscow and Kyiv and has hosted several rounds of Russia-Ukraine talks, Arab News reports. But being a trusted host is not the same as getting both sides to sign.

Washington is interested, Moscow has said no before

The US is now in the picture. Speaking at a news conference in Atlanta, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US is reviewing proposals from Türkiye and India to get grain shipments moving, Al Jazeera reported. “This is threatening the world for food security and some energy security as well,” he said. On a ceasefire at sea, he added: “We’d like to achieve it. It doesn’t solve the war, but at least it solves a unique aspect of it.”

That framing is the problem. A sea truce that sits apart from the wider war is exactly what Moscow has rejected.

Go back five weeks. On 23 September Rubio said “both sides have expressed an interest in some limited ceasefire that involve grain and energy”, adding: “Obviously, you know, that won’t be easy either” (Reuters via Baird Maritime). Zelensky’s response then was: “We are waiting for Russia’s response.”

The response came on 2 October. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “Piecemeal arrangements cannot bring us closer to a peaceful settlement” (Hurriyet Daily News, 3 October). A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin had rejected proposals to link a halt to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries with an end to Russian strikes on shipping serving Ukraine, the same report said.

Kyiv has conditions of its own. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said: “We are ready for an energy and Black Sea ceasefire, but only in that combination” (Hurriyet Daily News).

At that point, Ukraine had received four ceasefire proposals: from Türkiye, India, Egypt and the United States. The Turkish and Egyptian ones focused on protecting grain shipments. Peskov said Moscow remained open to talks with Türkiye, India and Egypt on Black Sea security, but no concrete talks were underway (Hurriyet Daily News).

So the list of offers is long and the list of signatures is empty. The next formal chance is the Russia-Ukraine-US round that the Kremlin said would resume in November in the United Arab Emirates (Al Jazeera). That is a wider-war meeting, not a shipping one. Our read: Moscow’s line is that it wants everything settled together, so a stand-alone corridor deal in November looks unlikely.

What it is costing ships and cargo now

While the diplomats talk, the cost of sailing is already set.

War-risk insurance is extra cover a shipowner buys before entering an area listed as dangerous by the Joint War Committee (JWC), a London market body. On 16 September the JWC widened its Black Sea listed area to cover most of the sea. Only the 12-nautical-mile territorial waters of Türkiye, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia stayed outside (Beinsure, 23 September). That change put waters off Bulgaria and Romania, beyond 12 miles from shore, inside the zone where extra premiums apply.

The premiums are high. Beinsure reported in September that war-risk premiums for Black Sea port calls had climbed to about 1% of a ship’s insured value, up from roughly 0.6% to 0.8% in late December. For a sense of how fast this can move: in early December 2025, Reuters reported rates of 0.6% to 1% for some voyages, up from 0.4% to 0.6% the week before (Insurance Business, 7 December 2025). That is a jump within a single week.

Those costs land on cargo. MSC brought in an Emergency Operations Surcharge (EOS) from 1 November, by bill of lading date. It is $200 per container (or €200 or £200) on cargo from Greece, Türkiye, the Black Sea and non-Italian Adriatic ports to North Europe, the UK and Scandinavia/Baltic. MSC’s advisory, dated 22 October, says it “reflects the additional operating costs associated with the present market and operational environment.” It runs until further notice.

Note the direction. MSC’s charge covers cargo leaving the region for North Europe. It is not a charge on bookings into Constanta, Varna or Burgas. That gap is where we expect the next move.

What forwarders should do now

First, price as if nothing has changed. A plan to “work on” a corridor will not move an underwriter. Insurers react to the attack record, not to press conferences. Quote Black Sea business with current surcharges built in.

Second, keep quote validity short. Surcharges like MSC’s run “until further notice”. That cuts both ways. If a real corridor deal is signed, they could drop quickly. If attacks continue, others will follow. Short validity, say two weeks, protects you either way.

Third, read the clauses. Check that your contracts and customer terms let you pass on war-risk and emergency surcharges introduced after booking. Many shippers will push back on a new charge mid-shipment. Get it agreed in writing now.

Fourth, have a routing backup. For cargo heading to south-east Europe, compare Black Sea gateways with Adriatic and Aegean ports plus rail or truck. Check transit times and inland costs before a customer asks. If more ships are hit, carriers may cut or skip western Black Sea calls with little notice.

Fifth, watch three signals. A Russian statement on Ankara’s proposal. Any shipping item on the agenda of the November talks in the UAE. And any JWC change to the listed area, which would be the first sign underwriters see lower risk.

Our call

We think the Istanbul agreement is real diplomacy but will not cut costs this month. Russia rejected a stand-alone sea truce on 2 October. Ankara’s latest proposal has had no answer from either side. And the costs on cargo are already rising, not falling.

Our prediction: by 30 November, at least one of the ten biggest container lines will announce a war-risk or emergency surcharge on bookings to Constanta, Varna or Burgas. We also expect at least one feeder service to skip or suspend a western Black Sea call in the same window. Nothing said in Istanbul changes that. A corridor that Russia has not signed does not make either outcome less likely.

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