Geopolitics Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read

The Black Sea war reaches Romanian and Bulgarian waters, and grain loadings fall 78%

Drones sink ships off Romania and Bulgaria as Black Sea wheat loadings fall 78%. Black Sea wheat loadings fell to 1.6m tonnes in September, down 77.8% on a year earlier and the lowest September since 2017, according to AXSMarine data published by Ursa. On 5 and 6 October, drones sank two ships and set a third on fire in Romanian and Bulgarian waters. Our view: the western Black Sea is no longer the safe side of the sea. Security firm Ambrey says those waters “should no longer be treated as safe by default.” Danube barge freight to Constanța is already about $75 a tonne, up from $15–35. Our call: no deal to stop the attacks before year-end.

Drones are now sinking ships off Romania and Bulgaria, and Black Sea wheat loadings have fallen 78%
Black Sea wheat loadings fell to 1.6m tonnes in September. A year earlier they were 7.3m tonnes. That is a drop of 77.8%, and the lowest September since 2017, according to AXSMarine vessel-tracking data published by Greek shipbroker Ursa and reported by Splash247. Volumes were also down 45.6% on August.
In the same fortnight, the war at sea moved west. Two ships sank and a third caught fire in the waters of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO and EU members. Until now, that coast was where cargo went to get away from the fighting.
Our view is simple. The western Black Sea has stopped being the safe side of the sea, and the cost of moving anything through it is going to stay high into the winter. The question for forwarders is no longer whether to avoid Ukrainian ports. It is whether Constanța, Varna and the Danube still work as the fallback.

What happened in four days

On Monday 5 October the Royad Mammadov, a 6,933-tonne Turkish-owned general cargo ship flying the St Kitts and Nevis flag, was hit by at least one drone about 20 miles off the Romanian coast, according to Euronews and The Maritime Executive. It had loaded Ukrainian corn at Izmail, a Ukrainian port on the Danube, and was heading for Ravenna in Italy, according to Euronews. It caught fire and sank. Romanian authorities recovered two bodies and rescued 11 seafarers.
The ship was inside Romania’s exclusive economic zone, or EEZ. An EEZ is the stretch of sea, out to 200 nautical miles, where a country controls fishing and resources. It is not sovereign territory, but it is not open ocean either.
Early on Tuesday 6 October, two more ships were hit in Bulgaria’s EEZ, about 80 miles off the coast, according to AP. The Togo-flagged Alfa Watan sank. The Palau-flagged Able, carrying wheat, caught fire. A Bulgarian ferry evacuated 18 crew members, and two were flown to hospital in Varna. AP called it the first attack on shipping in Bulgaria’s EEZ.
Bulgaria’s prime minister, Rumen Radev, said: “This is an unacceptable attack in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone.” Romania’s foreign ministry said “Romania supports an immediate moratorium on attacks against merchant ships and port infrastructure,” according to The Maritime Executive. Neither government named the attacker. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, blamed Russia and called the Bulgarian strike “another part of Russia’s effort to make the western Black Sea completely unfit for navigation,” according to AP. Security firm Ambrey assessed it highly likely that Russian forces carried out the attacks, according to Splash247.
On 8 October, Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan said attacks by both Russia and Ukraine were escalating ahead of winter. He told reporters that “we must never allow the Black Sea to be turned into a new front for conflict,” according to Reuters. Ankara is still waiting for answers from Moscow and Kyiv on its proposal to stop the attacks.

Why the fallback route is now in range

Since July, the shipping war has been escalating on both sides. Ukraine has hit ships and infrastructure tied to Russian oil and grain exports, and Russia has intensified strikes on Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi, according to Reuters. On 23 July, Ukrainian officials reported no vessel traffic at all on their Black Sea corridor, the first such day since 2023, according to The Maritime Executive. Odesa prosecutors said then that Russia had struck 28 commercial ships in a month.
For three years, the answer to trouble at Odesa was to move cargo west: down the Danube by barge, out through Romania, or along the Bulgarian and Romanian coast. That route is what Ambrey is now warning about. “Romanian and Bulgarian waters should no longer be treated as safe by default,” the firm said, according to Splash247.
We think that warning will stick. A strike 20 miles off Constanța is a strike on the main exit for Ukraine’s alternative routes. Shipowners and their insurers price where the next attack might land, not where the last one did.

The insurance line sits 12 miles offshore

Ships pay extra for war-risk cover in areas listed by the Joint War Committee (JWC), the London insurance market body that flags high-risk waters. In mid-September the JWC extended its Black Sea area. “This week, the JWC has expanded the Black Sea reporting requirements to the whole of the Black Sea area,” said Neil Roberts of the Lloyd’s Market Association, according to Reuters. He added: “However, voyages within the territorial waters of adjacent countries still do not require notification.” Territorial waters run 12 nautical miles from shore.
Beinsure reported that the territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania sit outside the listed area. Both October attacks happened beyond that 12-mile line, inside the zone insurers already treat as war risk.
Prices have moved with it. War-risk premiums for Black Sea port calls have climbed to about 1% of a vessel’s insured value, up from roughly 0.6% to 0.8% in late December, according to Beinsure. Marelis Navigation estimates extra war-risk costs at roughly $25,000 a day for a large vessel on Greater Odesa voyages, so six days in the zone adds about $150,000. Some quotes are valid for only 24 hours. Cargo war-risk cover typically carries 48 hours’ cancellation notice.
That gap between the insured coastal strip and the open sea is the practical point. We expect more ships to hug Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish territorial waters where they can. That adds time and puts more traffic into a narrow lane close to shore.

Where the grain is going instead

Ukraine exported 2.4m tonnes of agricultural products in September, 46% of its potential, according to agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi, quoted by Splash247. The Danube carried 1.3m tonnes of that. He warned that without the main Black Sea ports, alternative routes can handle only 45% to 50% of potential exports.
The Danube is struggling to take the load. River levels hit record lows over the summer, forcing barges to sail light, according to Bloomberg. Grain freight between Giurgiulesti, Moldova’s Danube port, and Constanța is now around $75 a tonne, up from $15 to $35, because of low water and higher fuel prices, according to Splash247. Back in August, Adrian Dobrita of RWA Raiffeisen Agro Romania was already doubtful the river had spare room: “That assumes the corridor feeding Constanta has slack. It doesn’t.”
Russia is rerouting too. Its wheat exports through the Baltic hit a record 1.4m tonnes in September, about 60% of its wheat shipments, according to Ursa via Splash247. Rail capacity and wagon supply limit how far that can grow, and Latvia and Lithuania are checking Russian grain moving through their ports more closely. Even so, total Russian wheat exports fell by more than 40% year on year.
USDA projections cited by Ursa put combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for 2026/27 at 55.5m tonnes, down 10.6% from 62.1m tonnes, on a harvest that is roughly unchanged. In plain terms, the grain is there. Getting it to sea is the problem.

What it means for forwarders and shippers

Start with the history. A year-long grain deal set up by the UN and administered by Turkey collapsed in 2023. Ukraine opened its own corridor that August, and it went on to move 117m tonnes of grain in three years, according to The Maritime Executive. Back in 2022, early in the war, traders leaned heavily on Constanța, and S&P Global Platts reported in July that traders expected to use it again. Each time, Constanța and the Danube took the overflow. This time the overflow route itself is under fire.
For anyone moving cargo in or out of the region, we see four practical effects.
Fewer ships, and pricier ones. Owners have already shown they will stop calling: the July halt on Ukraine’s corridor was reportedly their decision, while Ukrainian officials said the ports stayed open. Expect fewer offers for small bulkers and general cargo ships into the western Black Sea, and higher freight when you do find one.
Insurance as a line item. War-risk premiums, notification rules and short quote windows now apply to calls well beyond Ukraine. Build them into quotes, and check whether cargo cover can be cancelled at 48 hours’ notice before cargo is in transit.
Congestion at Constanța. More Ukrainian and Moldovan cargo is funnelling into one Romanian port through a river that is already full and running low. Book barge and terminal slots early, and allow extra days.
Pressure on buyers. Importers in the Mediterranean, North Africa and the Middle East who rely on Black Sea wheat and corn face fewer cargoes and longer lead times. Some will source elsewhere, which moves bulk demand onto other origins.
Container flows matter less here than bulk, but they are not immune. Maersk rerouted its Romania feeder away from Chornomorsk after a Russian strike in July, according to The Maritime Executive. We would not be surprised to see more feeder schedule changes into Constanța and Varna over the coming weeks.

What we expect next

Fidan’s warning about winter matters. Both sides have reasons to hit exports before the season ends, and neither has answered Turkey’s proposal. NATO declined to comment on the Bulgarian attack and referred questions to Sofia, according to AP. We do not see a pause coming from the alliance either.
Our call: no agreement to stop attacks on merchant ships before the end of 2026. Black Sea wheat loadings stay below half of last year’s level through November. Danube grain freight from Giurgiulesti to Constanța stays above $50 a tonne until at least the end of the year. And we expect at least one more merchant ship to be hit in Romania’s or Bulgaria’s EEZ before the end of November.

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