Black Sea: owners start refusing Romanian and Bulgarian calls
Black Sea shipping stops asking what the risk costs and starts saying no
Some shipowners are now trying to refuse orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, the editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List told gCaptain on 5 November. The same report cites maritime security firm Ambrey: it recorded 10 strikes on ships at sea between 5 and 28 October and attributed all 10 to Russia. Eight were by aerial drones and two by uncrewed surface vessels.
Also on 5 November, Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces had struck “a dry cargo ship carrying military equipment in the Black Sea, 52km (32 miles) southwest of the port of Odesa”, according to Al Jazeera. The ship was not named. Al Jazeera reported that “Ukrainian officials did not immediately confirm the strikes on the postal terminal or the vessel.”
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From a price problem to a capacity problem
Our view is that the western Black Sea has crossed a line. Until now, shipping dealt with the risk by paying for it: higher war-risk insurance, then carrier surcharges. That is now giving way to something harder to fix. Some owners and crews do not want to go at all.
This matters more than any premium. A premium raises your cost. A refusal takes ships off the lane. You can pass a cost on to a shipper. You cannot pass on a vessel that will not sail.
Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, put it directly. He told gCaptain that “some owners are essentially seeking to refuse orders to Romanian and Bulgarian ports”. He said “the calculation is shifting from how much the risk costs to whether owners, charterers and crews are prepared to accept it”. He added: “We understand that analysts are being approached over potential charter-party disputes”. A charter party is the contract between a shipowner and the company hiring the ship. A dispute over it means one side wants to cancel or change a voyage and the other wants it done as agreed.
Meade linked the shift to one event: “The sinking of Contship Jet off Bulgaria last week has crystallized those concerns.”
What the security data shows
Ambrey’s figures, as reported by gCaptain, explain why crews are nervous.
The firm said it “has recorded 696 security events in the Western Black Sea alone, about 537 of them in Ukrainian waters.” That leaves about 160 outside Ukraine’s own waters.
Tomas Alexa of Ambrey said: “Overall, there is a heightened risk to all vessels across the Western Black Sea at the moment.” He also said: “We now definitely see a heightened number of requirements for assessments for Romanian and Bulgarian ports”. In other words, more owners are asking for security assessments before they accept a call.
Then came the line that matters most for capacity: “We are also aware that a number of crew members, masters, are now also reluctant to sail to Romania or Bulgaria.” A master is the ship’s captain. Alexa added: “So that definitely is a heightened threat perception, and it is justified.”
Ambrey said Romanian waters were not new targets, but attacks there had been rare. “While the attacks against vessels in Romania are not something new, they were very sporadic and rare,” Alexa said. “The majority of them took place off the coast of Sulina.”
On targeting, Alexa said: “We’ve been able to link nine out of the 10 vessels that have been attacked in Romanian and Bulgarian waters” to Ukrainian trade. gCaptain reported that Ambrey had seen no evidence of military or dual-use cargo on any vessel struck in Romanian or Bulgarian waters. Ambrey also raised its risk rating for ships doing search-and-rescue work from low to moderate.
Ambrey sees the aim as economic. Alexa said: “It is to degrade the capability of Ukrainian authorities or Ukraine itself to import and export cargo”. Citing Ambrey data, gCaptain reported that “Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian ports and infrastructure have cut Ukraine’s ability to export from its seaports by up to 95%”. As Ukraine’s own ports lose capacity, more of its trade runs through Romania. That puts Romanian waters closer to the fighting.
Carriers start to charge, and the weather piles on
Container lines have started to price it. CMA CGM is adding a war risk surcharge of $35 per TEU (one 20-foot container equivalent) for the Black Sea region, Trans.info reported on 2 November. “The fee of USD 35 per TEU, or about €31, applies to bills of lading issued from 9 November 2026.” The advisory names Constanta, Poti, Varna and Burgas. The carrier said the security situation has “seriously deteriorated” in recent months. It said the charge will help it “continue ensuring service continuity” in the region.
That last phrase is worth noting. A carrier that talks about service continuity is thinking about whether it can keep the service running.
On top of the security risk came a storm. Romania’s ports of Constanta, Midia and Mangalia suspended vessel movements because of severe weather, SteelOrbis reported on 4 November. Citing the Romanian Naval Authority, it said Mangalia and Midia brought in restrictions on 1 November and Constanta suspended movements on 2 November. Winds reached force 7–8 on the Beaufort scale, and waves offshore were above four metres. About 30 vessels were waiting to load or unload on the morning of 3 November, according to media reports cited by SteelOrbis. Restrictions were still in place that day, with operations to resume once conditions improved.
Storms pass. But a backlog of about 30 ships at a port that crews are already wary of will take time to clear. Every extra day at anchor off Constanta is another day of exposure that owners have to weigh.
SteelOrbis also noted how much Ukraine now depends on Constanta. Imported steel for Ukraine lands there and moves on by rail and road. A regular Romania–Ukraine rail freight service started in May 2026. Its first shipment carried steel sheet from Constanta to Perechyn.
What happened last time
The Black Sea has seen insurance spikes before, and ships kept sailing. In December 2025, after attacks on tankers, India Sea Trade News reported that war-risk premiums had “typically stood at between 0.25% and 0.3% of a ship’s value”, and that underwriters were then “charging as much as 1% for some Ukrainian Black Sea ports.” The risk was expensive, but owners paid and kept going.
In October 2026, broker Konstantin Sobol told Latifundist, via UkrAgroConsult, that cover for the Black Sea route had gone from 0.1% to 0.5% of a vessel’s value after attacks in the Romanian and Bulgarian exclusive economic zones. On his example, that is $7,500 for a $1.5 million ship. He said owners could avoid the extra premium by sailing inside the 12-nautical-mile territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria, and that about 90% of the transit fleet was using that coastal route.
That workaround is the point. Last time, owners found a way to keep sailing at a manageable cost. Hugging the coast was the cheap fix. Strikes inside Romanian and Bulgarian waters make that fix less safe. When the cheap fix stops working, the next step is to stop going.
What it means for forwarders
For anyone moving boxes or breakbulk to Romania, Bulgaria or on to Ukraine, here is what we expect.
Longer, less reliable transits. Expect waiting time at Constanta to stay high after the storm clears. Build extra days into quotes for Romanian and Bulgarian deliveries. Do not promise fixed delivery dates on Ukraine-bound cargo routed through Constanta.
More surcharges. CMA CGM’s $35 per TEU is small next to a typical freight rate. Trans.info noted that other carriers often follow such moves. Quote Black Sea surcharges as pass-through items, and say so in writing now.
Cargo landing somewhere else. Most bills of lading include a liberty clause. It lets the carrier unload at another port if the named port is unsafe or blocked. If a ship will not call at Constanta or Varna, your cargo could be landed at another port in the region. The onward cost may then fall on your customer. Read the clause and warn shippers before it happens.
Insurance gaps. Check that your customers’ cargo cover includes war risk for the full route, including the leg into Romanian or Bulgarian waters. Standard policies do not always include it.
Alternative routings. As attacks shift Ukrainian grain exports, Ambrey has “tracked a significant push toward Sulina and the Danube River Delta ports”. Rail out of Constanta, and road links through Romania, Poland and Hungary, are the fallback for general cargo. Expect those to get busier and pricier if sea calls thin out.
Our prediction
Ambrey does not expect a quick fix. Alexa said “the Russian conditions are not being met” for a halt to strikes, and “As always with Russia and Ukraine, until everything is agreed, nothing is agreed”. gCaptain reported that “Ambrey expects the situation to continue for the next couple of months.”
Our call: by 30 November, at least one container or feeder service will skip, suspend or reroute a call at Constanta, Varna or Burgas, citing security. We also expect another of the ten biggest container lines, besides CMA CGM, to announce a war-risk or emergency charge on bookings to Constanta, Varna or Burgas by 30 November. CMA CGM has already priced the risk, and carriers often follow each other on such charges. What is new is crews and owners refusing to go, and that will show up in schedules next.
Sources
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